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Rankings
#29 of 107 in Division 3
#7 of 28 in Region 10
Strength of schedule #46 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #56 in D3 (-175 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 36-16 A #133 Lexington (3-1) D3 R10, pick: W by 21 (83%), perf. rating 107
08/29 W 36-6 A #425 Norwalk (1-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 25 (90%), perf. rating 138
09/05 W 57-6 H #338 Madison (Mansfield) (2-2) D3 R10, pick: W by 17 (83%), perf. rating 165
09/12 L 14-10 A #152 Clear Fork (3-1) D4 R14, pick: W by 5 (62%), perf. rating 128
09/19 H #52 Galion (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 15 (17%)
09/26 H #398 Pleasant (1-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/03 A #355 Marion Harding (1-3) D2 R7, pick: W by 26 (95%)
10/10 H #28 Shelby (4-0) D4 R14, pick: L by 25 (5%)
10/17 A #392 Highland (Marengo) (2-2) D4 R15, pick: W by 29 (97%)
10/24 H #375 River Valley (Caled.) (2-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 30 (98%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
11.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R10 playoffs
Playoff chances now
52% (bubble if 6-4), 11% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 15.50 (11.25-23.25) 99% in, 53% home, 4% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Holy Name (3-1) 12%
Lose: 10.90 ( 4.45-18.85) 43% in, 3% home, proj. out (#5-out), Shawnee (Lima) (3-1) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 8W: 20.55 (18.30-23.25) 100% home, 29% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#8), bye 29%
(17%) 7W: 15.55 (13.75-19.45) 99% in, 51% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Holy Name (3-1) 13%
(68%) 6W: 11.00 ( 9.70-16.45) 47% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Shawnee (Lima) (3-1) 15%
(12%) 5W: 8.95 ( 7.20-12.95) 9% in, proj. out (#9-out), Copley (3-1) 18%
( 1%) 4W: 7.05 ( 5.05-10.55) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWW: 20.55 (18.30-23.25) 100% home, 29% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#8), bye 29%
( 4%) LWWWWW: 16.00 (14.35-18.85) 99% in, 56% home, proj. #8 (#5-out), Revere (3-0) 11%
(13%) WWWLWW: 15.45 (13.75-18.50) 99% in, 49% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Holy Name (3-1) 13%
(66%) LWWLWW: 11.00 ( 9.70-15.05) 47% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Shawnee (Lima) (3-1) 15%
( 2%) LLWLWW: 9.40 ( 7.90-12.25) 12% in, proj. out (#10-out), Rocky River (3-1) 36%
( 3%) LWWLWL: 9.00 ( 7.35-12.50) 9% in, proj. out (#10-out), Lexington (3-1) 25%
( 3%) LWWLLW: 8.80 ( 7.20-11.95) 8% in, proj. out (#11-out), Shawnee (Lima) (3-1) 23%
( 4%) LWLLWW: 8.75 ( 7.55-12.90) 7% in, proj. out (#9-out), Copley (3-1) 24%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 133.3, #140, D3 #29), 52% (bubble if 6-4), 11% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 136.9, #118, D3 #20), 87% (bubble if 5-5), 55% home (maybe if 7-3), 11% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 129.9, #157, D3 #30), 74% (bubble if 5-5), 53% home (maybe if 6-4), 19% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 1 (0-1, 127.3, #165, D3 #34), 68% (bubble if 5-5), 43% home (maybe if 6-4), 14% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 144.5, #78, D3 #12), 91% (bubble if 5-5), 79% home (maybe if 7-3), 52% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #3 at 9-1
Last season 147.4