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Rankings
#49 of 104 in Division 2
#14 of 27 in Region 6
Strength of schedule #31 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #70 in D2 (-355 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 33-29 A #317 Valley Forge (1-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 24 (86%), perf. rating 103
08/29 W 43-13 A #446 Wooster (0-4) D2 R7, pick: W by 27 (91%), perf. rating 133
09/05 L 16-6 H #87 North Ridgeville (3-1) D2 R6, pick: L by 25 (8%), perf. rating 127
09/12 L 48-14 H #19 Wadsworth (4-0) D2 R6, pick: L by 32 (3%), perf. rating 117
09/19 A #182 Brecksville-Broadvw Hts (2-2) D2 R6, pick: L by 6 (35%)
09/26 H #55 Nordonia (4-0) D2 R5, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/03 H #252 Solon (1-3) D1 R1, pick: W by 8 (70%)
10/10 A #239 Stow-Munroe Falls (2-2) D2 R5, pick: W by 3 (58%)
10/16 A #121 Twinsburg (4-0) D2 R5, pick: L by 18 (12%)
10/24 H #36 Hudson (3-1) D2 R5, pick: L by 29 (3%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
4.85 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R6 playoffs
Playoff chances now
7% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.75 ( 2.30-22.85) 18% in, 4% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Anthony Wayne (3-1) 17%
Lose: 2.95 ( 0.60-18.60) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 6W: 16.70 (15.50-19.15) 100% in, 44% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), St Francis (Toledo) (3-1) 22%
( 9%) 5W: 11.95 (10.80-15.60) 51% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Anthony Wayne (3-1) 23%
(19%) 4W: 8.20 ( 7.15-14.30) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(28%) 3W: 4.85 ( 4.15-10.75) out, proj. out
(28%) 2W: 2.45 ( 1.85- 6.60) out, proj. out
(14%) 1W: 0.60 ( 0.60- 2.30) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWWL: 16.70 (16.00-18.45) 100% in, 43% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), St Francis (Toledo) (3-1) 21%
( 5%) WLWWWL: 11.85 (11.25-14.25) 44% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Anthony Wayne (3-1) 25%
(10%) WLWWLL: 7.70 ( 7.15- 9.60) out
(15%) LLWWLL: 4.80 ( 4.25- 7.20) out
( 6%) WLWLLL: 4.80 ( 4.15- 7.15) out
( 9%) LLLWLL: 2.95 ( 2.40- 4.85) out
(15%) LLWLLL: 2.40 ( 1.85- 5.35) out
(14%) LLLLLL: 0.60 ( 0.60- 2.30) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 121.7, #204, D2 #49), 7% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (1-2, 124.7, #190, D2 #46), 12% (bubble if 5-5), 4% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 125.8, #177, D2 #43), 13% (bubble if 5-5), 5% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 123.4, #185, D2 #45), 13% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home (likely needs 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 134.3, #129, D2 #29), 53% (bubble if 5-5), 32% home (maybe if 7-3), 11% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 6-4
Last season 138.0