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Rankings
#17 of 104 in Division 3
#5 of 27 in Region 9
Strength of schedule #28 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #24 in D3 (+145 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/20 L 34-13 H #66 Jackson (Massillon) (1-1) D1 R1, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 114
08/28 W 25-7 H #200 Cleveland Heights (0-2) D1 R1, pick: L by 4 (42%), perf. rating 147
09/04 A McDowell PA (0-1) D1
09/11 A #158 Madison (1-1) D3 R9, pick: W by 2 (55%)
09/18 H #102 North (Eastlake) (2-0) D2 R5, pick: L by 3 (43%)
09/25 A #157 South (Willoughby) (2-0) D3 R9, pick: W by 2 (55%)
10/02 A #544 Lutheran West (0-2) D3 R10, pick: W by 41 (99%)
10/09 A #25 Perry (2-0) D5 R17, pick: L by 29 (3%)
10/16 H #498 Lakeside (1-1) D3 R9, pick: W by 40 (99%)
10/23 H #408 Harvey (1-1) D3 R9, pick: W by 33 (99%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
4.65 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#10 seed in R9 playoffs
Playoff chances now
58% (bubble if 6-4), 36% home (likely needs 7-3), 12% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.04 ( 2.01- 7.84) 66% in, 45% home, 18% bye, proj. #9 (#1-out), bye 27%
Lose: 4.47 ( 1.32- 6.98) 45% in, 24% home, 4% bye, proj. out (#1-out), bye 10%
Based on eventual number of wins
(13%) 8W: 6.59 ( 6.01- 7.03) 100% home, 72% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 72%
(24%) 7W: 5.65 ( 5.03- 6.29) 100% in, 84% home, 5% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Maple Heights (1-1) 7%
(27%) 6W: 4.65 ( 4.17- 5.32) 68% in, 4% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Garfield Heights (2-0) 10%
(23%) 5W: 3.73 ( 3.28- 4.31) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 9%) 4W: 2.88 ( 2.56- 3.45) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(11%) WWWWWLWW: 6.59 ( 6.19- 7.03) 100% home, 72% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 72%
( 8%) LWWWWLWW: 5.76 ( 5.45- 6.18) 100% in, 95% home, 10% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), bye 10%
( 6%) WWLWWLWW: 5.48 ( 5.03- 5.98) 100% in, 81% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Maple Heights (1-1) 9%
( 5%) LWLWWLWW: 4.66 ( 4.27- 5.00) 73% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Maple Heights (1-1) 10%
( 5%) WLLWWLWW: 4.56 ( 4.23- 4.99) 59% in, 4% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Madison (1-1) 13%
( 7%) WWLLWLWW: 4.54 ( 4.17- 5.04) 63% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Gilmour Academy (1-1) 10%
(11%) WLLLWLWW: 3.66 ( 3.28- 4.16) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Geneva (1-1) 33%
( 7%) LLLLWLWW: 2.87 ( 2.56- 3.18) out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (1-1, 133.2, #131, D3 #17), 56% (bubble if 6-4), 36% home (maybe if 7-3), 14% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 1 (0-1, 127.0, #171, D3 #29), 53% (bubble if 5-5), 35% home (maybe if 6-4), 14% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #7 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 137.6, #105, D3 #15), 70% (bubble if 6-4), 51% home (maybe if 7-3), 24% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 7-3
Last season 134.5