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Rankings
#50 of 104 in Division 2
#12 of 27 in Region 5
Strength of schedule #45 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #48 in D2 (-150 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 20-3 A #463 Elyria (0-4) D1 R1, pick: W by 16 (77%), perf. rating 111
08/29 W 28-13 H #265 Elyria Catholic (1-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 11 (71%), perf. rating 134
09/05 L 59-46 H #55 Nordonia (4-0) D2 R5, pick: L by 28 (6%), perf. rating 129
09/12 L 33-6 A #92 Jackson (Massillon) (2-2) D1 R1, pick: L by 15 (19%), perf. rating 104
09/19 H #476 Firestone (0-4) D2 R5, pick: W by 32 (98%)
09/26 A #279 South (Willoughby) (2-2) D2 R5, pick: W by 6 (65%)
10/03 A #103 Riverside (Painesville) (3-1) D2 R5, pick: L by 22 (8%)
10/10 H #117 Chardon (3-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 16 (15%)
10/17 H #143 Kenston (2-2) D3 R9, pick: L by 11 (23%)
10/24 A #232 North (Eastlake) (3-1) D2 R5, pick: W by 1 (53%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
9.85 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R5 playoffs
Playoff chances now
31% (bubble if 5-5), 4% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.20 ( 2.30-24.05) 31% in, 4% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Twinsburg (4-0) 16%
Lose: 4.65 ( 1.70-19.65) 9% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 8W: 21.65 (19.90-24.05) 100% in, 98% home, 3% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#10), North (Eastlake) (3-1) 16%
( 7%) 7W: 17.35 (14.45-22.50) 99% in, 33% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Twinsburg (4-0) 25%
(17%) 6W: 13.35 (10.40-18.05) 87% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Riverside (Painesville) (3-1) 18%
(28%) 5W: 9.85 ( 6.95-14.45) 23% in, proj. out (#9-out), Austintown-Fitch (3-1) 19%
(29%) 4W: 6.90 ( 4.10-11.55) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(16%) 3W: 4.60 ( 2.30- 8.00) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWW: 21.65 (19.90-24.05) 100% in, 98% home, 3% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#10), North (Eastlake) (3-1) 16%
( 4%) WWLWWW: 17.20 (14.45-20.25) 100% in, 19% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Twinsburg (4-0) 30%
( 4%) WWLWLW: 13.45 (11.05-16.70) 89% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Riverside (Painesville) (3-1) 22%
( 7%) WWLLWW: 13.15 (10.40-16.50) 85% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Riverside (Painesville) (3-1) 19%
(15%) WWLLLW: 9.85 ( 6.95-13.20) 21% in, proj. out (#9-out), Nordonia (4-0) 22%
( 8%) WLLLLW: 7.40 ( 4.55-10.30) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Riverside (Painesville) (3-1) 50%
(16%) WWLLLL: 6.45 ( 4.10- 9.85) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Garfield Heights (3-1) 100%
(16%) WLLLLL: 4.60 ( 2.30- 7.30) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 120.0, #216, D2 #50), 31% (bubble if 5-5), 4% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (2-1, 123.5, #196, D2 #47), 43% (bubble if 6-4), 11% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (2-0, 124.3, #191, D2 #49), 45% (bubble if 5-5), 17% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 123.0, #190, D2 #47), 44% (bubble if 5-5), 21% home (maybe if 7-3), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 120.3, #211, D2 #48), 41% (bubble if 5-5), 23% home (maybe if 6-4), 7% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 5-5
Last season 118.7