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Rankings
#30 of 104 in Division 2
#8 of 27 in Region 5
Strength of schedule #24 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #20 in D2 (+177 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 28-21 A #284 Shaker Heights (1-3) D2 R5, pick: W by 17 (78%), perf. rating 124
08/29 W 16-15 H #83 Green (Uniontown) (1-3) D2 R5, pick: L by 6 (38%), perf. rating 144
09/05 W 26-7 H Cathedral Prep PA (3-1) D3
09/12 L 17-14 A #38 Austintown-Fitch (3-1) D2 R5, pick: L by 23 (9%), perf. rating 155
09/19 H #64 St Ignatius (0-4) D1 R1, pick: L by 7 (33%)
09/26 A #117 Chardon (3-1) D3 R9, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/03 H #216 Mayfield (2-2) D2 R5, pick: W by 22 (92%)
10/10 A #143 Kenston (2-2) D3 R9, pick: W by 5 (63%)
10/17 A #232 North (Eastlake) (3-1) D2 R5, pick: W by 20 (91%)
10/24 H #279 South (Willoughby) (2-2) D2 R5, pick: W by 27 (96%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
21.70 Harbin points (divisor 98)
#7 seed in R5 playoffs
Playoff chances now
98% (bubble if 4-6), 80% home (maybe if 6-4), 22% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 24.95 ( 8.62-32.60) 99% in, 93% home, 37% bye, proj. #5 (#1-out), bye 37%
Lose: 20.69 ( 5.22-30.93) 97% in, 74% home, 15% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
(15%) 9W: 27.70 (23.51-32.60) 100% home, 70% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 70%
(26%) 8W: 25.36 (18.93-30.93) 100% in, 99% home, 38% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 38%
(26%) 7W: 21.70 (15.02-27.11) 100% in, 94% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#12), North (Eastlake) (3-1) 11%
(19%) 6W: 17.89 (12.38-24.11) 99% in, 66% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Twinsburg (4-0) 17%
(10%) 5W: 14.68 (10.09-20.45) 97% in, 13% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Twinsburg (4-0) 21%
( 3%) 4W: 11.33 ( 7.04-16.33) 53% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Austintown-Fitch (3-1) 17%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(15%) WWWWWW: 27.70 (23.51-32.60) 100% home, 70% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 70%
(16%) LWWWWW: 26.49 (22.97-30.93) 100% home, 55% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 55%
( 3%) WWWLWW: 23.68 (18.98-27.25) 100% in, 99% home, 16% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), bye 16%
( 6%) WLWWWW: 23.07 (18.93-27.20) 100% in, 99% home, 11% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), North (Eastlake) (3-1) 13%
( 6%) LWWLWW: 22.44 (18.39-26.80) 100% in, 99% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), North (Eastlake) (3-1) 12%
(12%) LLWWWW: 21.86 (17.47-26.24) 100% in, 98% home, 5% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), North (Eastlake) (3-1) 13%
(10%) LLWLWW: 17.89 (13.60-22.22) 100% in, 76% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Garfield Heights (3-1) 14%
( 2%) LLLLLW: 11.13 ( 7.04-14.49) 47% in, proj. out (#10-out), Austintown-Fitch (3-1) 17%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 140.1, #103, D2 #30), 98% (bubble if 4-6), 80% home (maybe if 6-4), 22% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 3 (3-0, 138.9, #104, D2 #29), 98% (bubble if 4-6), 82% home (maybe if 5-5), 28% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 2 (2-0, 136.9, #114, D2 #32), 89% (bubble if 4-6), 64% home (maybe if 5-5), 23% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 132.4, #138, D2 #33), 69% (bubble if 4-6), 44% home (maybe if 5-5), 15% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 134.5, #126, D2 #28), 62% (bubble if 4-6), 40% home (maybe if 6-4), 16% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 5-5
Last season 128.6