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Rankings
#34 of 107 in Division 7
#5 of 25 in Region 27
Strength of schedule #87 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #27 in D7 (+80 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 35-0 H #631 Chesapeake (0-4) D6 R24, pick: L by 26 (12%), perf. rating 105
08/29 W 56-42 A #577 Meigs (1-3) D5 R19, pick: L by 5 (40%), perf. rating 89
09/05 W 55-27 H #685 River Valley (Bidwell) (0-4) D5 R19, pick: W by 42 (99%), perf. rating 69
09/12 W 45-24 H #589 South Point (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 5 (62%), perf. rating 93
09/19 A #647 Fairfield Christian (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 27 (95%)
09/26 H #708 Green (FF) (0-3) D7 R28, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/03 A #533 Eastern (Beaver) (4-0) D7 R28, pick: W by 5 (63%)
10/10 H #704 Sciotoville Community (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 47 (99%)
10/17 H #590 Notre Dame (4-0) D7 R28, pick: W by 20 (91%)
10/24 A #516 South Gallia (3-1) D7 R27, pick: W by 2 (55%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
15.12 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#3 seed in R27 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 90% home (maybe if 7-3), 66% bye (likely needs 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 15.47 ( 6.59-22.08) 99% in, 92% home, 68% bye, proj. #3 (#1-out), bye 69%
Lose: 11.49 ( 5.33-18.20) 86% in, 59% home, 27% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 32%
Based on eventual number of wins
(35%) 10W: 18.60 (15.72-22.08) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(35%) 9W: 15.12 (12.19-20.52) 100% in, 99% home, 82% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#9), bye 82%
(22%) 8W: 11.94 ( 9.56-16.53) 99% in, 88% home, 12% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 12%
( 7%) 7W: 9.16 ( 6.59-13.66) 90% in, 22% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#3-out), Catholic Cent. (Steub.) (3-1) 11%
( 1%) 6W: 7.25 ( 5.33- 9.77) 46% in, 3% home, proj. out (#7-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(35%) WWWWWW: 18.60 (15.72-22.08) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 3%) WWWWLW: 15.37 (12.89-17.79) 100% home, 93% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 93%
(18%) WWWWWL: 15.22 (12.99-18.50) 100% home, 77% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 77%
(13%) WWLWWW: 14.81 (12.19-18.55) 100% in, 99% home, 87% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#9), bye 87%
( 3%) WWWWLL: 12.14 (10.22-14.67) 100% in, 93% home, 11% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#10), bye 11%
( 2%) WWLWLW: 11.79 ( 9.61-14.77) 100% in, 92% home, 18% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 18%
(15%) WWLWWL: 11.66 ( 9.56-15.78) 99% in, 84% home, 6% bye, proj. #7 (#2-out), River (3-1) 11%
( 5%) WWLWLL: 8.81 ( 6.59-11.69) 88% in, 13% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Trimble (3-1) 12%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 81.4, #480, D7 #34), likely in, 90% home (maybe if 7-3), 66% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 3 (3-0, 73.0, #544, D7 #48), 80% (bubble if 6-4), 59% home (maybe if 8-2), 29% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 75.6, #538, D7 #48), 84% (bubble if 7-3), 62% home (maybe if 8-2), 30% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 69.2, #568, D7 #51), 63% (bubble if 7-3), 38% home (maybe if 8-2), 15% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #12 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 41.5, #667, D7 #84), 27% (bubble if 5-5), 12% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 46.5