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Rankings
#5 of 105 in Division 4
#2 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #23 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #11 in D4 (+312 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 35-6 H #125 St Marys Memorial (2-2) D3 R10, pick: L by 19 (19%), perf. rating 178
08/29 W 41-14 H #262 Carey (1-3) D6 R22, pick: W by 30 (93%), perf. rating 153
09/05 W 41-0 A #425 Norwalk (1-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 31 (96%), perf. rating 155
09/12 L 45-34 A #28 Shelby (4-0) D4 R14, pick: L by 16 (17%), perf. rating 148
09/19 A #140 Ontario (2-2) D3 R10, pick: W by 15 (83%)
09/26 H #392 Highland (Marengo) (2-2) D4 R15, pick: W by 39 (99%)
10/03 A #398 Pleasant (1-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 38 (99%)
10/10 H #375 River Valley (Caled.) (2-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 38 (99%)
10/17 A #355 Marion Harding (1-3) D2 R7, pick: W by 35 (99%)
10/24 H #152 Clear Fork (3-1) D4 R14, pick: W by 20 (91%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
23.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#2 seed in R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in and likely home, 90% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 22.90 (13.55-26.50) 100% in, 99% home, 95% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#10), bye 95%
Lose: 18.90 ( 9.70-22.85) 99% in, 92% home, 63% bye, proj. #4 (#2-out), bye 63%
Based on eventual number of wins
(72%) 9W: 23.10 (20.05-26.50) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(22%) 8W: 19.35 (15.85-24.25) 100% in, 99% home, 77% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#9), bye 77%
( 5%) 7W: 15.70 (12.55-20.25) 100% in, 81% home, 13% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#12), bye 13%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(72%) WWWWWW: 23.10 (20.05-26.50) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(12%) LWWWWW: 19.35 (16.50-22.85) 100% home, 85% bye, proj. #3 (#2-#7), bye 85%
( 8%) WWWWWL: 18.98 (15.85-21.55) 100% in, 99% home, 58% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#9), bye 58%
( 4%) LWWWWL: 15.20 (12.55-18.05) 100% in, 73% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Vermilion (3-1) 14%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 150.2, #52, D4 #5), likely in and likely home, 90% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 3 (3-0, 148.4, #69, D4 #6), likely in, 96% home (maybe if 6-4), 71% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 139.5, #100, D4 #10), 96% (bubble if 5-5), 83% home (maybe if 7-3), 51% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 141.2, #93, D4 #10), 95% (bubble if 5-5), 84% home (maybe if 6-4), 57% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 120.2, #212, D4 #26), 59% (bubble if 5-5), 37% home (maybe if 6-4), 14% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 5-5
Last season 119.3