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Rankings
#15 of 105 in Division 5
#7 of 25 in Region 18
Strength of schedule #4 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #9 in D5 (+470 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 36-12 A #93 St Marys Memorial (2-1) D3 R10, pick: W by 4 (57%), perf. rating 106
08/28 W 21-17 A #206 Carey (1-2) D6 R22, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 130
09/04 W 28-24 H #234 Bishop Ready (2-1) D4 R15, pick: W by 7 (65%), perf. rating 122
09/11 H #20 Shelby (3-0) D4 R14, pick: L by 34 (2%)
09/18 H #65 Ontario (3-0) D3 R10, pick: L by 21 (9%)
09/25 A #372 Highland (Marengo) (1-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 22 (92%)
10/02 H #460 Pleasant (1-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/09 A #422 River Valley (Caled.) (0-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/16 H #290 Marion Harding (2-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 16 (85%)
10/23 A #81 Clear Fork (3-0) D4 R14, pick: L by 20 (9%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
14.45 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#10 seed in R18 playoffs
Playoff chances now
75% (bubble if 5-5), 26% home (likely needs 7-3), 6% bye (likely needs 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 20.40 (11.75-30.20) 99% in, 89% home, 51% bye, proj. #4 (#1-out), bye 51%
Lose: 14.15 ( 4.20-25.50) 74% in, 25% home, 5% bye, proj. #11 (#1-out), Margaretta (2-1) 9%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 8W: 23.30 (19.60-28.10) 100% home, 91% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 91%
(18%) 7W: 18.70 (14.05-23.55) 100% in, 88% home, 11% bye, proj. #7 (#1-#12), bye 11%
(48%) 6W: 14.45 (10.55-20.35) 89% in, 13% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#2-out), Port Clinton (3-0) 10%
(22%) 5W: 11.75 ( 7.10-17.85) 44% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Archbold (3-0) 15%
( 7%) 4W: 9.80 ( 5.65-14.25) 13% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Bluffton (3-0) 15%
( 1%) 3W: 8.50 ( 4.85-13.10) 2% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) LWWWWWW: 23.20 (19.60-25.50) 100% home, 90% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 90%
( 7%) LWWWWWL: 18.75 (14.05-21.55) 100% in, 89% home, 11% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#12), bye 11%
(10%) LLWWWWW: 18.65 (14.45-22.00) 100% in, 86% home, 10% bye, proj. #7 (#1-#12), bye 10%
(44%) LLWWWWL: 14.40 (10.55-17.25) 88% in, 11% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Port Clinton (3-0) 10%
( 3%) LLWWLWL: 12.75 ( 9.15-15.40) 62% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Archbold (3-0) 12%
( 5%) LLLWWWL: 12.35 ( 8.75-15.35) 54% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Archbold (3-0) 15%
(12%) LLWWWLL: 11.20 ( 7.10-14.55) 32% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Archbold (3-0) 18%
( 1%) LLLWLLL: 8.45 ( 4.85-11.15) 2% in, proj. out (#10-out), Bluffton (3-0) 25%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 123.7, #187, D5 #15), 75% (bubble if 5-5), 26% home (likely needs 7-3), 6% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 127.0, #168, D5 #14), 60% (bubble if 5-5), 32% home (likely needs 7-3), 11% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 1 (0-1, 123.5, #190, D5 #16), 44% (bubble if 5-5), 24% home (maybe if 6-4), 10% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 137.1, #108, D5 #7), 74% (bubble if 5-5), 57% home (maybe if 7-3), 35% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 7-3
Last season 143.8