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Rankings
#36 of 106 in Division 5
#12 of 26 in Region 18
Strength of schedule #17 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #29 in D5 (+45 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/23 W 37-30 A #405 St Paul (2-2) D7 R25, pick: W by 9 (66%), perf. rating 107
08/29 W 53-7 A #615 Fostoria (0-4) D5 R18, pick: W by 31 (94%), perf. rating 122
09/05 L 35-20 A #176 Oak Harbor (4-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 24 (9%), perf. rating 106
09/12 W 65-0 H #690 Collinwood (0-3) D3 R9, pick: W by 49 (99%), perf. rating 85
09/19 H #362 Clyde (0-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 6 (65%)
09/26 A #281 Huron (2-2) D6 R22, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/03 A #285 Vermilion (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 8 (30%)
10/10 H #170 Edison (Milan) (3-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 20 (9%)
10/17 H #256 Bellevue (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 8 (30%)
10/24 A #386 Sandusky (1-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 5 (63%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
7.91 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R18 playoffs
Playoff chances now
34% (bubble if 6-4), 7% home (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.77 ( 3.31-22.23) 45% in, 11% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 16%
Lose: 6.14 ( 2.81-20.01) 13% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 22%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 9W: 19.40 (16.77-22.23) 100% in, 99% home, 25% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 25%
( 8%) 8W: 15.72 (12.39-20.01) 100% in, 46% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-#12), Genoa Area (3-1) 14%
(13%) 7W: 12.84 ( 9.56-18.91) 91% in, 7% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 17%
(19%) 6W: 10.17 ( 6.64-14.97) 48% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 29%
(22%) 5W: 7.91 ( 5.23-11.90) 10% in, proj. out (#9-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 26%
(23%) 4W: 5.89 ( 3.31- 9.43) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(12%) 3W: 4.48 ( 2.81- 6.96) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWWWWW: 19.40 (16.77-22.23) 100% in, 99% home, 25% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 25%
( 4%) WWWLWW: 15.21 (12.39-18.04) 100% in, 25% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Norwayne (2-2) 16%
( 4%) WLLLWW: 9.92 ( 7.55-12.70) 42% in, proj. out (#9-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 28%
( 4%) WWLLLW: 9.06 ( 6.64-11.54) 21% in, proj. out (#10-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 30%
( 9%) WLLLLW: 7.50 ( 5.48-10.48) 5% in, proj. out (#11-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 21%
( 7%) LLLLLW: 5.99 ( 4.48- 9.27) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Genoa Area (3-1) 50%
(10%) WLLLLL: 5.59 ( 3.31- 8.16) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 50%
(12%) LLLLLL: 4.48 ( 2.81- 6.96) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 104.9, #331, D5 #36), 34% (bubble if 6-4), 7% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (2-1, 108.8, #294, D5 #29), 36% (bubble if 6-4), 11% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (2-0, 109.5, #295, D5 #31), 45% (bubble if 6-4), 15% home (maybe if 8-2), 3% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 104.1, #330, D5 #36), 43% (bubble if 5-5), 12% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye, proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 103.7, #326, D5 #37), 41% (bubble if 5-5), 17% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 106.4