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Rankings
#38 of 79 in Division 1
#12 of 21 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #21 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #34 in D1 (+8 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 30-21 H #84 La Salle (3-4) D2 R8, pick: L by 33 (7%), perf. rating 126
08/28 W 41-7 H #299 Hamilton (1-6) D1 R4, pick: L by 11 (28%), perf. rating 158
09/04 L 49-6 A #4 Princeton (7-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 30 (5%), perf. rating 124
09/11 W 34-28 H #101 Fairfield (3-4) D1 R4, pick: W by 3 (56%), perf. rating 146
09/18 L 28-7 H #48 Middletown (4-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 11 (25%), perf. rating 119
09/25 W 47-31 A #73 Oak Hills (4-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 17 (14%), perf. rating 170
10/02 W 41-23 A #345 Sycamore (0-7) D1 R4, pick: W by 31 (98%), perf. rating 132
10/09 A #6 Lakota West (6-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 34 (1%)
10/16 H #61 Lakota East (4-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 6 (35%)
10/23 A #121 Mason (2-5) D1 R4, pick: W by 2 (55%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
11.65 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
38% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Lose: 11.65 ( 9.05-18.15) 38% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Lebanon (6-1) 22%
Based on eventual number of wins
(23%) 6W: 15.55 (15.55-20.10) 100% in, 4% home, proj. #10 (#7-#12), Lebanon (6-1) 25%
(43%) 5W: 11.65 (11.65-16.20) 34% in, proj. out (#9-out), Springboro (4-3) 17%
(33%) 4W: 9.05 ( 9.05-11.00) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(23%) LWW: 15.55 (15.55-18.15) 100% in, 4% home, proj. #10 (#7-#12), Lebanon (6-1) 25%
(11%) LWL: 13.60 (12.95-15.55) 93% in, proj. #11 (#9-out), Springboro (4-3) 21%
(32%) LLW: 11.65 (11.65-13.60) 12% in, proj. out (#11-out), Winton Woods (6-1) 28%
(33%) LLL: 9.05 ( 9.05-11.00) out
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (4-3, 139.6, #100, D1 #38), 38% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 5-5
Week 6 (3-3, 142.5, #83, D1 #34), 52% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home, proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 5 (2-3, 136.6, #107, D1 #37), 14% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 4 (2-2, 138.9, #102, D1 #36), 33% (bubble if 5-5), 10% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 136.5, #109, D1 #36), 25% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 140.5, #90, D1 #33), 37% (bubble if 5-5), 11% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 121.8, #203, D1 #56), 12% (bubble if 4-6), 3% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 113.3, #258, D1 #65), 10% (bubble if 4-6), 3% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 1-9
Last season 112.9