Region 4 home page
Region 4 projections
Region 4 playoff probabilities
Region 4 seeding probabilities
Eitel Region 4 page
Eitel team page
Team history page
Rankings
#36 of 80 in Division 1
#12 of 21 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #17 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #46 in D1 (-80 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 30-21 H #57 La Salle (2-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 33 (7%), perf. rating 137
08/28 W 41-7 H #256 Hamilton (1-2) D1 R4, pick: L by 11 (28%), perf. rating 164
09/04 L 49-6 A #12 Princeton (3-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 30 (5%), perf. rating 119
09/11 H #116 Fairfield (1-2) D1 R4, pick: W by 3 (56%)
09/18 H #64 Middletown (1-2) D1 R4, pick: L by 9 (28%)
09/25 A #48 Oak Hills (2-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 20 (10%)
10/02 A #360 Sycamore (0-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 29 (97%)
10/09 A #5 Lakota West (3-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 35 (1%)
10/16 H #40 Lakota East (2-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 19 (11%)
10/23 A #139 Mason (1-2) D1 R4, pick: W by 3 (58%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
7.80 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
25% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.10 ( 3.25-27.25) 40% in, 10% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Lakota East (2-1) 16%
Lose: 3.90 ( 1.30-24.00) 5% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Lebanon (3-0) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 7W: 20.10 (20.10-24.65) 100% in, 97% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#10), Lakota East (2-1) 18%
( 9%) 6W: 15.60 (14.90-21.45) 100% in, 26% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), Lebanon (3-0) 15%
(17%) 5W: 11.65 (10.40-16.90) 70% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Lakota East (2-1) 17%
(24%) 4W: 7.80 ( 7.15-14.30) 4% in, proj. out (#10-out), Winton Woods (2-1) 21%
(26%) 3W: 4.55 ( 3.90-10.35) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(18%) 2W: 1.95 ( 1.95- 7.80) out, proj. out
( 2%) 1W: 1.30 ( 1.30- 3.90) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWWWLWW: 20.10 (20.10-22.05) 100% in, 97% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Lakota East (2-1) 20%
( 4%) WWLWLWW: 15.60 (15.60-18.20) 100% in, 19% home, proj. #10 (#6-#12), Oak Hills (2-1) 18%
( 8%) WWLWLLW: 10.40 (10.40-13.00) 63% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Lakota East (2-1) 23%
(11%) WLLWLLW: 7.15 ( 7.15- 9.75) 2% in, proj. out (#12-out), Winton Woods (2-1) 31%
(11%) WLLWLLL: 4.55 ( 4.55- 7.80) out
(10%) LLLWLLW: 3.90 ( 3.90- 8.45) out
(16%) LLLWLLL: 1.95 ( 1.95- 5.20) out
( 2%) LLLLLLL: 1.30 ( 1.30- 3.90) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 136.5, #109, D1 #36), 25% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 140.5, #90, D1 #33), 37% (bubble if 5-5), 11% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 121.8, #203, D1 #56), 12% (bubble if 4-6), 3% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 113.3, #258, D1 #65), 10% (bubble if 4-6), 3% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 1-9
Last season 112.9