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Rankings
#42 of 72 in Division 1
#11 of 18 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #28 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #46 in D1 (-228 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 21-20 A #178 Edgewood (Trenton) (1-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 14 (74%), perf. rating 130
08/29 L 14-7 A #51 Lakota East (3-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 29 (7%), perf. rating 142
09/05 L 14-9 H #56 Middletown (4-0) D1 R2, pick: L by 8 (33%), perf. rating 141
09/12 L 24-14 H #78 Mason (2-2) D1 R4, pick: L by 9 (30%), perf. rating 128
09/19 A #310 Colerain (0-4) D1 R4, pick: W by 24 (93%)
09/26 H #88 Hamilton (1-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 6 (35%)
10/03 A #300 Sycamore (0-4) D1 R4, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/10 H #12 Princeton (3-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/17 A #21 Lakota West (2-2) D1 R4, pick: L by 30 (2%)
10/24 H #97 Fairfield (2-2) D1 R4, pick: L by 4 (40%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
7.90 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#11 seed in R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
81% (bubble if 2-8), 5% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.25 ( 2.25-22.85) 84% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Lakota East (3-1) 23%
Lose: 4.50 ( 1.65-17.65) 51% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Lakota West (2-2) 21%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 6W: 15.80 (13.20-19.45) 100% in, 72% home, proj. #8 (#6-#10), Lakota East (3-1) 25%
(18%) 5W: 11.00 ( 8.15-17.65) 100% in, 13% home, proj. #9 (#7-#12), Lakota East (3-1) 37%
(34%) 4W: 7.90 ( 5.00-15.70) 98% in, 1% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Lakota East (3-1) 25%
(34%) 3W: 5.30 ( 3.05-11.15) 68% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 28%
( 9%) 2W: 4.10 ( 1.75- 8.55) 37% in, proj. out (#10-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 25%
( 1%) 1W: 3.35 ( 1.65- 4.40) 9% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWLW: 16.35 (13.30-18.15) 100% in, 74% home, proj. #8 (#6-#9), Lakota East (3-1) 27%
(16%) WWWLLW: 10.50 ( 8.15-14.25) 100% in, 10% home, proj. #9 (#7-#12), Lakota East (3-1) 39%
(18%) WLWLLW: 7.90 ( 5.00-11.00) 98% in, 1% home, proj. #10 (#8-out), Lakota East (3-1) 27%
(14%) WWWLLL: 7.90 ( 5.00-10.90) 98% in, 1% home, proj. #10 (#8-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 22%
(30%) WLWLLL: 5.30 ( 3.05- 8.55) 64% in, proj. #12 (#10-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 29%
( 5%) WLLLLL: 4.10 ( 2.25- 6.35) 34% in, proj. out (#10-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 30%
( 3%) LLWLLL: 4.00 ( 1.75- 6.45) 36% in, proj. out (#10-out), Lakota West (2-2) 22%
( 1%) LLLLLL: 3.35 ( 1.65- 4.40) 9% in, proj. out (#12-out), Lakota West (2-2) 25%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 135.0, #132, D1 #42), 81% (bubble if 2-8), 5% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. #11 at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 137.2, #116, D1 #38), 84% (bubble if 3-7), 18% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. #9 at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 136.7, #116, D1 #38), 80% (bubble if 3-7), 27% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 131.4, #141, D1 #45), 70% (bubble if 3-7), 21% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 135.4, #121, D1 #42), 62% (bubble if 3-7), 28% home (maybe if 6-4), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 4-6
Last season 133.6