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Rankings
#32 of 79 in Division 1
#10 of 21 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #33 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #40 in D1 (-56 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 49-20 H #173 Edgewood (Trenton) (4-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 16 (77%), perf. rating 167
08/28 W 21-0 A #101 Fairfield (3-4) D1 R4, pick: L by 7 (36%), perf. rating 172
09/04 L 31-28 H #61 Lakota East (4-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 2 (54%), perf. rating 141
09/11 L 21-14 A #48 Middletown (4-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 5 (62%), perf. rating 144
09/18 W 28-21 A #121 Mason (2-5) D1 R4, pick: W by 14 (81%), perf. rating 148
09/25 L 47-31 H #100 Colerain (4-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 17 (86%), perf. rating 114
10/02 W 42-14 A #299 Hamilton (1-6) D1 R4, pick: W by 27 (96%), perf. rating 153
10/09 H #345 Sycamore (0-7) D1 R4, pick: W by 33 (99%)
10/16 A #4 Princeton (7-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 33 (1%)
10/23 H #6 Lakota West (6-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 30 (2%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
11.85 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
49% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 11.85 (10.65-25.25) 49% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Winton Woods (6-1) 25%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 6W: 18.10 (16.40-20.05) 100% in, 36% home, proj. #9 (#7-#12), Lebanon (6-1) 23%
(96%) 5W: 11.85 (10.65-14.30) 47% in, proj. out (#10-out), Winton Woods (6-1) 26%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWL: 18.35 (17.70-20.05) 100% in, 42% home, proj. #9 (#7-#10), St Xavier (3-4) 22%
( 2%) WLW: 17.70 (16.40-19.50) 100% in, 32% home, proj. #9 (#7-#12), Lebanon (6-1) 25%
(96%) WLL: 11.85 (10.65-14.30) 47% in, proj. out (#10-out), Winton Woods (6-1) 26%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (4-3, 144.3, #73, D1 #32), 49% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 5-5
Week 6 (3-3, 145.2, #76, D1 #32), 54% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 5-5
Week 5 (3-2, 151.7, #53, D1 #23), 95% (bubble if 5-5), 19% home (likely needs 7-3), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 4 (2-2, 150.7, #56, D1 #26), 86% (bubble if 5-5), 18% home (likely needs 7-3), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 154.6, #48, D1 #22), 91% (bubble if 5-5), 45% home (maybe if 7-3), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 2 (2-0, 156.4, #47, D1 #22), 92% (bubble if 5-5), 64% home (maybe if 7-3), 24% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 143.6, #78, D1 #31), 58% (bubble if 5-5), 28% home (maybe if 7-3), 10% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 136.1, #115, D1 #41), 50% (bubble if 4-6), 25% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 137.7