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Rankings
#30 of 72 in Division 1
#8 of 18 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #19 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #20 in D1 (+147 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 21-7 H #59 Springboro (2-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 127
08/29 L 35-13 A #21 Lakota West (2-2) D1 R4, pick: L by 30 (7%), perf. rating 138
09/05 W 40-35 H #51 Lakota East (3-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 13 (23%), perf. rating 156
09/12 W 24-14 A #132 Oak Hills (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 9 (70%), perf. rating 152
09/19 A #88 Hamilton (1-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 1 (48%)
09/26 H #12 Princeton (3-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 26 (5%)
10/03 A #97 Fairfield (2-2) D1 R4, pick: W by 2 (55%)
10/10 H #56 Middletown (4-0) D1 R2, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/17 A #310 Colerain (0-4) D1 R4, pick: W by 29 (97%)
10/24 H #300 Sycamore (0-4) D1 R4, pick: W by 31 (98%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
12.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#8 seed in R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 67% home (maybe if 5-5), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 16.85 ( 8.40-27.90) 100% in, 93% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#1-#12), Oak Hills (1-3) 19%
Lose: 12.30 ( 5.80-25.30) 99% in, 43% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Hamilton (1-3) 35%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 8W: 25.95 (25.95-27.90) 100% home, 74% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#6), bye 74%
(18%) 7W: 20.10 (20.10-26.60) 100% home, 2% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#8), Oak Hills (1-3) 21%
(28%) 6W: 16.20 (14.90-22.70) 100% in, 98% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#9), Hamilton (1-3) 25%
(27%) 5W: 12.95 (11.00-18.15) 100% in, 65% home, proj. #8 (#6-#11), Hamilton (1-3) 33%
(20%) 4W: 9.70 ( 8.40-16.20) 99% in, 9% home, proj. #9 (#7-out), Hamilton (1-3) 25%
( 4%) 3W: 8.40 ( 5.80-12.30) 97% in, 2% home, proj. #10 (#8-out), Lakota East (3-1) 24%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWW: 25.95 (25.95-27.90) 100% home, 74% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#6), bye 74%
(16%) WLWWWW: 20.10 (20.10-22.70) 100% home, 1% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#8), Oak Hills (1-3) 21%
( 9%) LLWWWW: 16.85 (16.20-20.75) 100% in, 97% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#9), Hamilton (1-3) 44%
(11%) WLWLWW: 15.55 (14.90-18.15) 100% in, 99% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#9), Oak Hills (1-3) 25%
(10%) LLWLWW: 12.30 (11.65-14.90) 100% in, 61% home, proj. #8 (#7-#11), Hamilton (1-3) 52%
( 9%) WLLLWW: 12.30 (11.00-15.55) 100% in, 72% home, proj. #8 (#6-#10), Fairfield (2-2) 35%
(18%) LLLLWW: 9.70 ( 8.40-12.95) 99% in, 5% home, proj. #9 (#8-out), Hamilton (1-3) 24%
( 1%) LLLLWL: 8.40 ( 5.80-11.00) 96% in, 1% home, proj. #10 (#8-out), Lakota East (3-1) 23%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 145.0, #78, D1 #30), likely in, 67% home (maybe if 5-5), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 5-5
Week 3 (1-2, 148.4, #70, D1 #29), 98% (bubble if 2-8), 66% home (maybe if 5-5), 11% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 2 (0-2, 142.9, #85, D1 #32), 72% (bubble if 3-7), 29% home (maybe if 5-5), 5% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #11 at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 140.6, #96, D1 #34), 63% (bubble if 3-7), 24% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 147.9, #68, D1 #30), 76% (bubble if 3-7), 44% home (maybe if 6-4), 17% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 5-5
Last season 146.3