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Rankings
#47 of 80 in Division 1
#14 of 21 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #10 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #47 in D1 (-50 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 33-0 A #43 Springboro (1-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 9 (34%), perf. rating 111
08/28 W 43-24 A #362 Sycamore (0-2) D1 R4, pick: W by 23 (88%), perf. rating 130
09/04 H #4 Lakota West (2-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 38 (2%)
09/11 A #48 Lakota East (1-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 26 (6%)
09/18 H #47 Oak Hills (2-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 24 (7%)
09/25 H #244 Hamilton (0-2) D1 R4, pick: W by 15 (83%)
10/02 A #13 Princeton (2-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 36 (1%)
10/09 H #108 Fairfield (1-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 6 (35%)
10/16 A #67 Middletown (0-2) D1 R4, pick: L by 19 (11%)
10/23 H #90 Colerain (1-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 9 (28%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
2.21 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
13% (likely needs 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Lose: 2.21 ( 0.65- 7.28) 13% in, 2% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Lebanon (2-0) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 6W: 5.07 ( 5.00- 5.58) 99% in, 37% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Lebanon (2-0) 13%
( 9%) 5W: 4.09 ( 3.96- 4.54) 85% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Lebanon (2-0) 15%
(18%) 4W: 3.12 ( 2.99- 3.77) 10% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(28%) 3W: 2.21 ( 2.14- 2.73) out, proj. out
(28%) 2W: 1.36 ( 1.36- 1.88) out, proj. out
(13%) 1W: 0.65 ( 0.65- 0.91) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 4%) LLLWLWWW: 3.96 ( 3.96- 4.49) 79% in, proj. #11 (#9-out), Lakota East (1-1) 14%
( 7%) LLLWLWLW: 3.12 ( 3.06- 3.38) 11% in, proj. out (#11-out), Lebanon (2-0) 16%
( 3%) LLLWLWWL: 3.12 ( 3.06- 3.31) 9% in, proj. out (#12-out), Springboro (1-1) 33%
(12%) LLLWLWLL: 2.21 ( 2.21- 2.47) out
( 8%) LLLWLLLW: 2.21 ( 2.15- 2.54) out
( 3%) LLLWLLWL: 2.21 ( 2.15- 2.40) out
(22%) LLLWLLLL: 1.36 ( 1.36- 1.62) out
(13%) LLLLLLLL: 0.65 ( 0.65- 0.91) out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (1-1, 129.2, #156, D1 #47), 13% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 130.5, #147, D1 #49), 22% (likely needs 5-5), 7% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 142.8, #83, D1 #31), 56% (bubble if 4-6), 32% home (maybe if 6-4), 13% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 5-5
Last season 142.3