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Rankings
#43 of 79 in Division 1
#15 of 21 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #12 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #52 in D1 (-174 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 33-0 A #62 Springboro (4-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 9 (34%), perf. rating 100
08/28 W 43-24 A #345 Sycamore (0-7) D1 R4, pick: W by 23 (88%), perf. rating 134
09/04 L 35-10 H #6 Lakota West (6-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 38 (2%), perf. rating 143
09/11 L 24-20 A #61 Lakota East (4-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 26 (6%), perf. rating 144
09/18 L 28-21 H #73 Oak Hills (4-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 14 (19%), perf. rating 132
09/25 W 40-3 H #299 Hamilton (1-6) D1 R4, pick: W by 21 (91%), perf. rating 163
10/02 L 47-0 A #4 Princeton (7-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 36 (1%), perf. rating 124
10/09 H #101 Fairfield (3-4) D1 R4, pick: L by 2 (45%)
10/16 A #48 Middletown (4-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 19 (11%)
10/23 H #100 Colerain (4-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 2 (45%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
5.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
5% (bubble if 5-5), no home game
Depending on the next game
Win: 8.45 ( 5.20-14.30) 10% in, proj. out (#10-out), Elder (5-2) 20%
Lose: 1.95 ( 1.95-11.05) out, proj. out
Based on eventual number of wins
( 6%) 5W: 13.00 (12.35-14.30) 77% in, proj. #12 (#10-out), Elder (5-2) 20%
(24%) 4W: 8.45 ( 8.45-11.05) out, proj. out
(36%) 3W: 5.20 ( 5.20- 7.15) out, proj. out
(33%) 2W: 1.95 ( 1.95- 3.25) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 6%) WWW: 13.00 (12.35-14.30) 77% in, proj. #12 (#10-out), Elder (5-2) 20%
( 2%) LWW: 9.75 ( 9.10-11.05) out
( 2%) WWL: 9.10 ( 9.10-10.40) out
(20%) WLW: 8.45 ( 8.45- 9.75) out
( 2%) LWL: 5.85 ( 5.85- 7.15) out
(17%) LLW: 5.20 ( 5.20- 7.15) out
(17%) WLL: 5.20 ( 5.20- 6.50) out
(33%) LLL: 1.95 ( 1.95- 3.25) out
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (2-5, 135.3, #121, D1 #43), 5% (bubble if 5-5), no home game, proj. out at 3-7
Week 6 (2-4, 137.2, #112, D1 #38), 5% (likely needs 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 5 (1-4, 135.4, #118, D1 #40), 3% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 4 (1-3, 134.9, #118, D1 #40), 13% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (1-2, 131.6, #139, D1 #43), 14% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 129.2, #156, D1 #47), 13% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 130.5, #147, D1 #49), 22% (likely needs 5-5), 7% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 142.8, #83, D1 #31), 56% (bubble if 4-6), 32% home (maybe if 6-4), 13% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 5-5
Last season 142.3