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Rankings
#31 of 80 in Division 1
#11 of 21 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #21 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #69 in D1 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 A #58 Springboro (0-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 9 (34%)
08/28 A #358 Sycamore (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 32 (95%)
09/04 H #25 Lakota West (0-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 20 (13%)
09/11 A #46 Lakota East (0-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 12 (24%)
09/18 H #115 Oak Hills (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 9 (71%)
09/25 H #73 Hamilton (0-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/02 A #24 Princeton (0-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 23 (7%)
10/09 H #101 Fairfield (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 6 (65%)
10/16 A #33 Middletown (0-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 17 (13%)
10/23 H #258 Colerain (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 27 (96%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
11.65 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#12 seed in R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
56% (bubble if 4-6), 32% home (maybe if 6-4), 12% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 18.10 ( 0.65-38.85) 84% in, 59% home, 28% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 33%
Lose: 7.80 ( 0.00-33.05) 42% in, 18% home, 5% bye, proj. out (#1-out), bye 11%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 10W: 33.75 (30.50-38.85) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
( 5%) 9W: 29.15 (24.05-35.65) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 97%
( 9%) 8W: 24.60 (19.45-30.45) 100% in, 99% home, 57% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 57%
(11%) 7W: 20.00 (14.30-29.80) 100% in, 94% home, 8% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), Lebanon (0-0) 8%
(13%) 6W: 15.55 (10.40-23.35) 99% in, 43% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Elder (0-0) 11%
(15%) 5W: 11.65 ( 7.15-20.10) 87% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Elder (0-0) 11%
(16%) 4W: 8.40 ( 4.55-16.85) 27% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Elder (0-0) 12%
(13%) 3W: 5.20 ( 2.60-13.60) 2% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(11%) 2W: 2.60 ( 1.30- 9.05) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 5%) 1W: 0.65 ( 0.65- 5.80) out, proj. out
( 1%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Most likely first round opponents
Elder (0-0) 8%
Lebanon (0-0) 6%
Middletown (0-0) 6%
Springboro (0-0) 5%
Most likely second round opponents
Archbishop Moeller (0-0) 12%
St Xavier (0-0) 12%
Winton Woods (0-0) 11%
Princeton (0-0) 10%
Lakota West (0-0) 10%
Weekly summary info
Week 0 (0-0, 142.8, #83, D1 #31), 56% (bubble if 4-6), 32% home (maybe if 6-4), 12% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 5-5
Last season 142.3