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Rankings
#22 of 72 in Division 1
#5 of 18 in Region 2
Strength of schedule #29 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #11 in D1 (+305 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 28-20 H #105 Troy (3-1) D1 R2, pick: W by 14 (74%), perf. rating 150
08/29 W 19-2 H #97 Fairfield (2-2) D1 R4, pick: W by 5 (60%), perf. rating 165
09/05 W 14-9 A #132 Oak Hills (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 8 (67%), perf. rating 144
09/12 W 31-0 H #310 Colerain (0-4) D1 R4, pick: W by 35 (98%), perf. rating 152
09/19 A #300 Sycamore (0-4) D1 R4, pick: W by 31 (97%)
09/26 A #21 Lakota West (2-2) D1 R4, pick: L by 20 (10%)
10/03 H #51 Lakota East (3-1) D1 R4, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/10 A #78 Mason (2-2) D1 R4, pick: W by 3 (58%)
10/17 H #88 Hamilton (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 9 (72%)
10/24 A #12 Princeton (3-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 26 (4%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
20.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#2 seed in R2 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 89% home (maybe if 5-5), 57% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 20.95 (10.70-36.45) 99% in, 89% home, 58% bye, proj. #4 (#1-out), bye 58%
Lose: 15.75 (10.00-29.95) 97% in, 63% home, 28% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 29%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 7%) 9W: 30.10 (28.25-33.35) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#2), bye 100%
(26%) 8W: 24.85 (23.05-29.95) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(29%) 7W: 20.95 (18.50-26.15) 100% home, 73% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 73%
(24%) 6W: 17.00 (13.95-22.25) 100% in, 93% home, 10% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#11), Hilliard Bradley (3-1) 11%
(13%) 5W: 13.15 (10.70-18.35) 99% in, 32% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Springboro (2-2) 11%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WLWWWW: 30.70 (29.50-32.55) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#2), bye 100%
(21%) WLWWWL: 24.85 (23.05-27.45) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 5%) WLWWLL: 21.60 (19.75-24.20) 100% home, 85% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 85%
(10%) WLWLWL: 20.95 (19.10-24.75) 100% home, 69% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 69%
(11%) WLLWWL: 20.30 (18.50-22.80) 100% home, 67% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 67%
( 6%) WLLWLL: 17.05 (15.20-21.60) 100% in, 96% home, 9% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), Hilliard Bradley (3-1) 11%
(11%) WLLLWL: 16.40 (13.95-19.65) 100% in, 87% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Hilliard Bradley (3-1) 10%
(12%) WLLLLL: 13.15 (10.70-16.95) 99% in, 29% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Springboro (2-2) 11%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 149.9, #56, D1 #22), likely in, 89% home (maybe if 5-5), 57% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #2 at 7-3
Week 3 (3-0, 149.0, #63, D1 #26), likely in, 82% home (maybe if 5-5), 42% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Week 2 (2-0, 147.0, #77, D1 #28), 97% (bubble if 3-7), 74% home (maybe if 5-5), 38% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 139.8, #104, D1 #37), 84% (bubble if 3-7), 54% home (maybe if 5-5), 23% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #10 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 140.5, #101, D1 #37), 70% (bubble if 4-6), 43% home (maybe if 6-4), 18% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #10 at 5-5
Last season 141.3