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Rankings
#16 of 80 in Division 1
#7 of 21 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #19 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #70 in D1 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 A #16 Elder (0-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 16 (23%)
08/28 H #24 Princeton (0-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 6 (38%)
09/04 A #101 Fairfield (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 17 (83%)
09/11 H #115 Oak Hills (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 22 (90%)
09/18 A #258 Colerain (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 33 (98%)
09/25 H #358 Sycamore (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 41 (99%)
10/02 H #25 Lakota West (0-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 6 (35%)
10/09 A #46 Lakota East (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 2 (55%)
10/16 H #83 Mason (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 17 (87%)
10/23 A #73 Hamilton (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 10 (74%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
15.60 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#8 seed in R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
79% (bubble if 4-6), 55% home (maybe if 6-4), 28% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 26.20 ( 1.95-38.55) 96% in, 86% home, 59% bye, proj. #4 (#1-out), bye 61%
Lose: 14.95 ( 0.00-33.70) 73% in, 46% home, 19% bye, proj. #9 (#1-out), bye 26%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 10W: 34.00 (30.55-38.55) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
(12%) 9W: 30.00 (25.00-35.85) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 98%
(15%) 8W: 25.25 (18.85-30.50) 100% home, 66% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 66%
(16%) 7W: 20.10 (14.90-27.90) 100% in, 96% home, 11% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), bye 11%
(16%) 6W: 15.60 (11.00-22.75) 99% in, 47% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Elder (0-0) 10%
(14%) 5W: 11.65 ( 7.75-19.50) 88% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Elder (0-0) 13%
(10%) 4W: 8.40 ( 5.65-15.55) 30% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Elder (0-0) 11%
( 7%) 3W: 5.20 ( 3.55-14.35) 3% in, proj. out (#9-out)
( 4%) 2W: 2.60 ( 1.95- 7.80) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 2%) 1W: 0.65 ( 0.65- 5.20) out, proj. out
( 1%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Most likely first round opponents
Elder (0-0) 6%
Lebanon (0-0) 5%
Springboro (0-0) 4%
St Xavier (0-0) 4%
Most likely second round opponents
Archbishop Moeller (0-0) 12%
St Xavier (0-0) 11%
Winton Woods (0-0) 10%
Princeton (0-0) 10%
Lakota West (0-0) 10%
Weekly summary info
Week 0 (0-0, 157.4, #33, D1 #16), 79% (bubble if 4-6), 55% home (maybe if 6-4), 28% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 6-4
Last season 163.4