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Rankings
#62 of 72 in Division 1
#15 of 18 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #12 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #57 in D1 (-318 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 44-7 H #42 Kings (4-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 28 (10%), perf. rating 99
08/29 L 37-7 H #88 Hamilton (1-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 26 (10%), perf. rating 97
09/05 L 47-0 H #12 Princeton (3-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 38 (2%), perf. rating 112
09/12 L 34-9 A #97 Fairfield (2-2) D1 R4, pick: L by 28 (5%), perf. rating 106
09/19 H #56 Middletown (4-0) D1 R2, pick: L by 31 (3%)
09/26 A #310 Colerain (0-4) D1 R4, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/03 H #132 Oak Hills (1-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 23 (7%)
10/10 A #21 Lakota West (2-2) D1 R4, pick: L by 42 (1%)
10/17 H #51 Lakota East (3-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/24 A #78 Mason (2-2) D1 R4, pick: L by 31 (2%)
Regular season projections
1-9 record
0.65 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
3% (bubble if 3-7), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.20 ( 3.25-20.10) 37% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 24%
Lose: 0.65 ( 0.00-12.35) 2% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 27%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 3W: 7.10 ( 5.15-13.65) 76% in, proj. #11 (#9-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 27%
(10%) 2W: 3.25 ( 2.55- 9.75) 14% in, proj. out (#9-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 24%
(42%) 1W: 0.65 ( 0.65- 5.20) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(46%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LWLLWL: 4.55 ( 3.90- 5.85) 32% in, proj. out (#11-out), Lakota West (2-2) 36%
( 1%) WWLLLL: 4.55 ( 3.90- 7.15) 24% in, proj. out (#11-out), Lakota West (2-2) 21%
( 1%) LWLLLW: 3.90 ( 3.25- 5.85) 7% in, proj. out (#10-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 40%
( 1%) LLLLLW: 3.25 ( 1.95- 5.20) 6% in, proj. out (#12-out), St Xavier (4-0) 43%
( 5%) LWWLLL: 2.55 ( 2.55- 4.50) 3% in, proj. out (#12-out), Lakota West (2-2) 27%
( 3%) LLWLLL: 1.90 ( 1.25- 3.20) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Lakota West (2-2) 67%
(36%) LWLLLL: 0.65 ( 0.65- 1.95) out
(46%) LLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 109.2, #300, D1 #62), 3% (bubble if 3-7), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 3 (0-3, 106.9, #316, D1 #63), 4% (bubble if 3-7), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 2 (0-2, 110.9, #287, D1 #62), 8% (bubble if 3-7), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 1 (0-1, 114.2, #260, D1 #59), 17% (bubble if 3-7), 2% home, proj. out at 1-9
Week 0 (0-0, 119.2, #215, D1 #60), 24% (bubble if 3-7), 7% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 2-8
Last season 110.5