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Region 4 playoff probabilities
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Rankings
#71 of 79 in Division 1
#19 of 21 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #9 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #70 in D1 (-525 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 34-6 A #100 Kings (3-3) D2 R8, pick: L by 38 (4%), perf. rating 99
08/28 L 43-24 H #112 Mason (2-4) D1 R4, pick: L by 23 (12%), perf. rating 107
09/04 L 31-21 A #270 Hamilton (1-5) D1 R4, pick: L by 19 (14%), perf. rating 100
09/11 L 56-7 A #5 Princeton (6-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 49 (1%), perf. rating 124
09/18 L 42-19 H #107 Fairfield (2-4) D1 R4, pick: L by 26 (5%), perf. rating 102
09/25 L 41-0 A #45 Middletown (4-2) D1 R4, pick: L by 38 (1%), perf. rating 97
10/02 H #83 Colerain (3-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 31 (2%)
10/09 A #76 Oak Hills (3-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 34 (1%)
10/16 H #11 Lakota West (5-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 48 (1%)
10/23 A #60 Lakota East (4-2) D1 R4, pick: L by 36 (1%)
Regular season projections
0-10 record
0.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears eliminated from contention
Depending on the next game
Win: 3.25 ( 2.60- 7.80) out, proj. out
Lose: 0.00 ( 0.00- 9.75) out, proj. out
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 1W: 3.25 ( 2.55- 5.85) out, proj. out
(95%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LLWL: 5.85 ( 4.55- 5.85) out
( 1%) LLLW: 3.90 ( 3.25- 5.20) out
( 2%) WLLL: 2.60 ( 2.60- 3.90) out
(95%) LLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (0-6, 103.3, #337, D1 #71), appears eliminated from contention, proj. out at 0-10
Week 5 (0-5, 105.2, #321, D1 #72), appears eliminated from contention, proj. out at 0-10
Week 4 (0-4, 105.8, #320, D1 #71), 1% (must have at least 2-8 for any chance), proj. out at 0-10
Week 3 (0-3, 100.9, #360, D1 #72), unlikely to contend for playoffs, proj. out at 0-10
Week 2 (0-2, 100.0, #362, D1 #75), 1% (must have at least 2-8 for any chance), proj. out at 0-10
Week 1 (0-1, 103.6, #340, D1 #75), 2% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 0-10
Week 0 (0-0, 101.2, #358, D1 #74), 4% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Last season 98.8