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Rankings
#56 of 106 in Division 5
#12 of 26 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #86 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #62 in D5 (-242 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 48-13 H #248 Miami East (6-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 27 (11%), perf. rating 61
08/28 W 36-6 A #600 Bethel-Tate (2-5) D5 R20, pick: L by 7 (36%), perf. rating 105
09/04 W 35-0 A #603 Troy Christian (3-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 9 (69%), perf. rating 112
09/11 W 40-7 H #587 Madison (Middletown) (0-7) D5 R20, pick: W by 16 (83%), perf. rating 109
09/18 W 41-0 H #693 New Miami (0-7) D7 R28, pick: W by 49 (99%), perf. rating 70
09/25 L 42-14 H #335 Waynesville (5-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 16 (15%), perf. rating 61
10/02 L 26-21 A #344 Cincinnati College Prep (7-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 21 (9%), perf. rating 98
10/09 H #572 Gamble Montessori (6-1) D5 R20, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/16 A #346 Worthington Christian (5-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 17 (13%)
10/23 A #650 Thurgood Marshall (1-6) D3 R12, pick: W by 35 (99%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
8.70 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
36% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 8.80 ( 7.20-13.75) 38% in, 5% home, proj. out (#6-out), Waynesville (5-2) 20%
Lose: 5.10 ( 3.65- 9.15) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
(13%) 7W: 11.80 (10.50-13.75) 100% in, 37% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Greeneview (4-3) 22%
(80%) 6W: 8.70 ( 7.30-11.75) 28% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Waynesville (5-2) 29%
( 7%) 5W: 5.10 ( 4.65- 9.20) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(13%) WWW: 11.80 (10.50-13.75) 100% in, 37% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Greeneview (4-3) 22%
(79%) WLW: 8.70 ( 7.85-11.00) 28% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Waynesville (5-2) 29%
( 6%) LLW: 5.00 ( 4.65- 6.80) out
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (4-3, 88.7, #436, D5 #56), 36% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 6-4
Week 6 (4-2, 86.8, #452, D5 #60), 57% (bubble if 6-4), 13% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 6-4
Week 5 (4-1, 92.4, #414, D5 #51), 75% (bubble if 6-4), 38% home (maybe if 7-3), 10% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 4 (3-1, 91.7, #427, D5 #56), 65% (bubble if 6-4), 33% home (maybe if 7-3), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 86.9, #452, D5 #60), 59% (bubble if 6-4), 24% home (maybe if 7-3), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 78.0, #510, D5 #75), 51% (bubble if 5-5), 20% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 1 (0-1, 60.8, #604, D5 #89), 21% (bubble if 5-5), 7% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 65.5, #580, D5 #89), 28% (bubble if 6-4), 11% home (maybe if 8-2), 3% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 70.1