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Rankings
#60 of 107 in Division 6
#11 of 27 in Region 24
Strength of schedule #90 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #46 in D6 (-110 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 37-20 A #373 Miami East (3-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 35 (5%), perf. rating 76
08/29 W 28-25 H #540 Bethel-Tate (0-4) D4 R16, pick: L by 19 (17%), perf. rating 76
09/05 W 35-0 H #661 Miami Valley Christian (1-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 20 (87%), perf. rating 92
09/12 W 39-28 A #514 Madison (Middletown) (1-3) D5 R20, pick: L by 19 (13%), perf. rating 96
09/19 A #687 New Miami (2-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 36 (99%)
09/26 A #366 Waynesville (1-3) D5 R20, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/03 H #443 Cincinnati College Prep (2-2) D7 R28, pick: L by 8 (30%)
10/11 A #668 Gamble Montessori (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 31 (98%)
10/17 H #560 Worthington Christian (1-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 9 (72%)
10/24 H #616 Thurgood Marshall (1-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 22 (93%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
11.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#7 seed in R24 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 79% home (maybe if 6-4), 17% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 11.00 ( 5.25-19.05) 99% in, 79% home, 17% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 9W: 15.75 (12.95-19.05) 100% in, 99% home, 88% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#9), bye 88%
(24%) 8W: 13.80 ( 9.55-18.15) 100% in, 99% home, 49% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 49%
(42%) 7W: 11.00 ( 7.95-16.05) 100% in, 87% home, 5% bye, proj. #7 (#1-#12), Perry (Lima) (2-2) 15%
(23%) 6W: 9.35 ( 7.20-13.10) 99% in, 59% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Anna (3-1) 20%
( 7%) 5W: 7.72 ( 6.10-11.35) 96% in, 17% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Anna (3-1) 19%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWWWWW: 15.75 (12.95-19.05) 100% in, 99% home, 88% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#9), bye 88%
(21%) WLWWWW: 13.90 (11.40-18.15) 100% in, 99% home, 52% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 52%
( 5%) WLWWLW: 12.55 ( 9.80-16.05) 100% in, 99% home, 21% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#10), bye 21%
( 2%) WWLWWW: 12.55 ( 9.55-15.10) 100% in, 96% home, 23% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 23%
(34%) WLLWWW: 10.85 ( 7.95-14.60) 100% in, 85% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#12), Anna (3-1) 16%
(17%) WLLWLW: 9.50 ( 7.20-12.10) 99% in, 60% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Anna (3-1) 21%
( 4%) WLLWWL: 9.00 ( 7.60-11.55) 100% in, 49% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), Anna (3-1) 18%
( 5%) WLLWLL: 7.75 ( 6.30-10.35) 96% in, 17% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Anna (3-1) 19%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 77.2, #518, D6 #60), likely in, 79% home (maybe if 6-4), 17% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 69.2, #570, D6 #73), 94% (bubble if 3-7), 40% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 60.7, #599, D6 #81), 69% (bubble if 4-6), 22% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 53.5, #625, D6 #86), 26% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 47.7, #652, D6 #94), 17% (bubble if 5-5), 5% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 53.8