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Rankings
#100 of 107 in Division 6
#27 of 27 in Region 22
Strength of schedule #87 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #104 in D6 (-925 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 54-14 H #454 Northwestern (W. Salem) (2-0) D6 R21, pick: W by 31 (92%), perf. rating 25
08/28 L 28-16 H #642 Crestline (1-1) D7 R27, pick: W by 25 (90%), perf. rating 28
09/04 A #527 Independence (1-1) D7 R25, pick: L by 26 (7%)
09/11 A #679 New London (0-2) D7 R25, pick: W by 18 (86%)
09/18 H #604 South Central (1-1) D7 R25, pick: L by 11 (25%)
10/02 A #473 St Paul (1-1) D7 R25, pick: L by 31 (2%)
10/09 H #251 W. Reserve (Collins) (2-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 44 (1%)
10/16 A #459 Monroeville (0-2) D7 R25, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/23 H #628 Mapleton (1-1) D7 R25, pick: L by 3 (42%)
Regular season projections
2-7 record
0.90 Harbin points (divisor 87)
out of R22 playoffs
Playoff chances now
unlikely to contend for playoffs
Depending on the next game
Win: 1.59 ( 0.60- 3.94) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Lose: 0.86 ( 0.00- 3.37) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 4W: 2.00 ( 1.88- 2.34) out, proj. out
(17%) 3W: 1.41 ( 1.33- 1.83) out, proj. out
(31%) 2W: 0.90 ( 0.86- 1.36) out, proj. out
(37%) 1W: 0.39 ( 0.39- 0.85) out, proj. out
( 9%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(13%) LWWLLLW: 1.41 ( 1.37- 1.59) out
(20%) LWLLLLW: 0.88 ( 0.86- 1.04) out
( 8%) LWWLLLL: 0.86 ( 0.86- 1.03) out
( 3%) LLLLLLW: 0.48 ( 0.43- 0.56) out
(33%) LWLLLLL: 0.39 ( 0.39- 0.48) out
( 9%) LLLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (0-2, 47.6, #641, D6 #100), 1% (must have at least 4-5 for any chance), proj. out at 2-7
Week 1 (0-1, 60.3, #609, D6 #88), 6% (bubble if 7-2), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-5
Week 0 (0-0, 93.4, #413, D6 #45), 59% (bubble if 7-2), 31% home (maybe if 8-1), 6% bye (maybe if 9-0), proj. out at 7-2
Last season 95.3