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Rankings
#86 of 107 in Division 7
#20 of 26 in Region 25
Strength of schedule #46 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #91 in D7 (-617 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 51-0 A #498 Lucas (2-2) D7 R27, pick: L by 38 (4%), perf. rating 19
08/28 L 50-28 H #568 Willard (2-2) D5 R18, pick: L by 24 (11%), perf. rating 34
09/05 L 22-6 H #597 Wellington (2-2) D5 R18, pick: L by 13 (23%), perf. rating 35
09/12 L 57-0 A #405 St Paul (2-2) D7 R25, pick: L by 42 (1%), perf. rating 35
09/19 H #660 Mapleton (1-3) D6 R21, pick: L by 3 (43%)
09/26 A #352 Crestview (Ashland) (2-2) D6 R23, pick: L by 45 (1%)
10/03 A #678 New London (2-2) D6 R21, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/10 A #369 Monroeville (2-2) D7 R25, pick: L by 44 (1%)
10/17 H #350 W. Reserve (Collins) (3-1) D6 R22, pick: L by 43 (1%)
10/24 H #656 South Central (0-4) D7 R25, pick: L by 4 (40%)
Regular season projections
1-9 record
1.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R25 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 2-8 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 2.60 ( 0.75- 8.35) 3% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), East Palestine (4-0) 25%
Lose: 0.35 ( 0.00- 7.20) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
(17%) 3W: 3.35 ( 3.30- 6.10) 4% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(27%) 2W: 2.25 ( 1.45- 4.65) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(31%) 1W: 1.10 ( 0.35- 3.50) out, proj. out
(25%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(16%) WLWLLW: 3.35 ( 3.30- 4.15) 2% in, proj. out (#12-out), East Palestine (4-0) 25%
(11%) WLWLLL: 2.25 ( 2.25- 3.35) out
(10%) LLWLLW: 1.85 ( 1.80- 3.05) out
( 5%) WLLLLW: 1.85 ( 1.45- 2.70) out
(14%) LLWLLL: 1.10 ( 1.10- 2.20) out
( 9%) WLLLLL: 1.10 ( 0.75- 2.20) out
( 7%) LLLLLW: 0.35 ( 0.35- 1.55) out
(25%) LLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 36.5, #671, D7 #86), 1% (must have at least 2-8 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Week 3 (0-3, 38.7, #666, D7 #84), 2% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (0-2, 40.7, #662, D7 #81), 7% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 44.2, #661, D7 #81), 7% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 46.6, #655, D7 #78), 11% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 2-8
Last season 46.8