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Rankings
#25 of 103 in Division 7
#6 of 25 in Region 25
Strength of schedule #47 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #33 in D7 (-0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 48-14 A #225 McComb (6-1) D7 R26, pick: L by 4 (43%), perf. rating 70
08/28 L 28-12 A #245 Seneca East (5-2) D6 R22, pick: L by 31 (6%), perf. rating 95
09/04 L 38-0 H #96 Danville (7-0) D7 R27, pick: L by 30 (5%), perf. rating 81
09/11 W 62-8 H #633 South Central (3-4) D7 R25, pick: W by 26 (94%), perf. rating 110
09/18 W 35-6 A #641 New London (1-6) D7 R25, pick: W by 32 (98%), perf. rating 90
09/25 L 38-36 H #291 W. Reserve (Collins) (7-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 23 (7%), perf. rating 105
10/02 W 42-14 A #634 Mapleton (1-5) D7 R25, pick: W by 33 (98%), perf. rating 93
10/16 H #666 Crestview (Ashland) (1-6) D6 R22, pick: W by 42 (99%)
10/23 H #535 St Paul (3-3) D7 R25, pick: W by 21 (92%)
Regular season projections
5-4 record
7.85 Harbin points (divisor 88)
#8 seed in R25 playoffs
Playoff chances now
98% (likely in at 4-5 or better), 57% home (maybe if 5-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.85 ( 5.36- 8.76) 98% in, 58% home, proj. #8 (#5-out), Independence (4-3) 36%
Based on eventual number of wins
(92%) 5W: 7.85 ( 7.80- 8.76) 100% in, 62% home, proj. #8 (#5-#12), Independence (4-3) 38%
( 8%) 4W: 5.42 ( 5.36- 7.46) 80% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Springfield (New Midd.) (4-3) 22%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(92%) WW: 7.85 ( 7.80- 8.76) 100% in, 62% home, proj. #8 (#5-#12), Independence (4-3) 38%
( 7%) WL: 5.42 ( 5.36- 6.33) 78% in, proj. #12 (#10-out), Springfield (New Midd.) (4-3) 23%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (3-4, 93.6, #409, D7 #25), 98% (likely in at 4-5 or better), 57% home (maybe if 5-4), proj. #8 at 5-4
Week 6 (2-4, 92.9, #412, D7 #26), 97% (bubble if 4-5), 40% home (maybe if 5-4), proj. #10 at 5-4
Week 5 (2-3, 87.5, #445, D7 #30), 94% (bubble if 4-5), 50% home (maybe if 5-4), 4% bye (maybe if 6-3), proj. #9 at 5-4
Week 4 (1-3, 87.5, #452, D7 #30), 91% (bubble if 4-5), 49% home (maybe if 5-4), 4% bye (maybe if 6-3), proj. #8 at 5-4
Week 3 (0-3, 81.0, #490, D7 #33), 79% (bubble if 4-5), 23% home (maybe if 5-4), 2% bye (maybe if 6-3), proj. #9 at 5-4
Week 2 (0-2, 85.4, #461, D7 #28), 62% (bubble if 4-5), 23% home (maybe if 5-4), 4% bye (maybe if 6-3), proj. #8 at 5-4
Week 1 (0-1, 84.5, #463, D7 #25), 63% (bubble if 4-5), 29% home (maybe if 5-4), 5% bye (maybe if 7-2), proj. #7 at 5-4
Week 0 (0-0, 99.6, #372, D7 #19), 76% (bubble if 4-5), 55% home (maybe if 6-3), 28% bye (maybe if 7-2), proj. #7 at 6-3
Last season 98.2