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Rankings
#29 of 104 in Division 7
#8 of 25 in Region 25
Strength of schedule #41 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #15 in D7 (+225 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 35-0 A #215 Port Clinton (2-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 25 (13%), perf. rating 71
08/28 W 14-10 H #475 Calvert (0-2) D7 R26, pick: L by 2 (46%), perf. rating 87
09/04 H #511 Northwood (1-1) D5 R18, pick: W by 8 (67%)
09/11 A #268 Keystone (2-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 28 (5%)
09/18 A #251 W. Reserve (Collins) (2-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 29 (3%)
09/26 H #679 New London (0-2) D7 R25, pick: W by 41 (99%)
10/02 H #641 Crestview (Ashland) (0-2) D6 R22, pick: W by 31 (98%)
10/09 A #604 South Central (1-1) D7 R25, pick: W by 21 (92%)
10/16 H #628 Mapleton (1-1) D7 R25, pick: W by 29 (97%)
10/23 A #459 Monroeville (0-2) D7 R25, pick: L by 4 (40%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
2.83 Harbin points (divisor 96)
#10 seed in R25 playoffs
Playoff chances now
79% (bubble if 5-5), 44% home (maybe if 6-4), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 3.02 ( 1.34- 5.06) 94% in, 61% home, 8% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), Springfield (New Midd.) (1-1) 10%
Lose: 2.22 ( 0.46- 4.32) 48% in, 9% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Rittman (2-0) 11%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 8W: 4.11 ( 3.88- 4.58) 100% home, 65% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 65%
(28%) 7W: 3.36 ( 3.14- 3.87) 100% in, 94% home, 5% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#10), Rittman (2-0) 10%
(33%) 6W: 2.83 ( 2.60- 3.27) 99% in, 37% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Springfield (New Midd.) (1-1) 12%
(22%) 5W: 2.26 ( 2.10- 2.64) 55% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Independence (1-1) 12%
( 8%) 4W: 1.74 ( 1.60- 2.08) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 2%) 3W: 1.26 ( 1.16- 1.51) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWLWWWWW: 4.12 ( 3.88- 4.42) 100% home, 66% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 66%
( 2%) WLWWWWWW: 4.10 ( 3.88- 4.31) 100% home, 64% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 64%
(25%) WLLWWWWW: 3.33 ( 3.14- 3.66) 100% in, 94% home, 5% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#10), Rittman (2-0) 10%
(23%) WLLWWWWL: 2.84 ( 2.64- 3.16) 99% in, 38% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Springfield (New Midd.) (1-1) 13%
( 6%) LLLWWWWW: 2.72 ( 2.60- 2.92) 99% in, 29% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Rittman (2-0) 13%
( 4%) WLLWWLWL: 2.36 ( 2.21- 2.54) 54% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Springfield (New Midd.) (1-1) 15%
(13%) LLLWWWWL: 2.22 ( 2.10- 2.42) 54% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), St John School (1-1) 14%
( 5%) LLLWWLWL: 1.72 ( 1.60- 1.88) out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (1-1, 83.7, #472, D7 #29), 77% (bubble if 5-5), 42% home (maybe if 6-4), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 1 (0-1, 79.7, #496, D7 #34), 60% (bubble if 5-5), 31% home (maybe if 6-4), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 85.5, #467, D7 #30), 53% (bubble if 5-5), 30% home (maybe if 7-3), 10% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 5-5
Last season 86.5