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Rankings
#22 of 107 in Division 6
#9 of 27 in Region 22
Strength of schedule #91 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #15 in D6 (+265 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 45-7 H #648 Wellington (0-2) D6 R21, pick: W by 37 (96%), perf. rating 98
08/28 W 26-7 H #319 Margaretta (1-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 11 (28%), perf. rating 132
09/04 A #454 Northwestern (W. Salem) (2-0) D6 R21, pick: W by 25 (92%)
09/11 A #628 Mapleton (1-1) D7 R25, pick: W by 42 (99%)
09/18 H #473 St Paul (1-1) D7 R25, pick: W by 29 (97%)
09/25 A #459 Monroeville (0-2) D7 R25, pick: W by 25 (94%)
10/02 H #604 South Central (1-1) D7 R25, pick: W by 40 (99%)
10/09 A #641 Crestview (Ashland) (0-2) D6 R22, pick: W by 44 (99%)
10/16 H #588 Brookside (0-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 38 (99%)
10/23 A #679 New London (0-2) D7 R25, pick: W by 49 (99%)
Regular season projections
10-0 record
5.30 Harbin points (divisor 95)
#4 seed in R22 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in and likely home, 76% bye (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.27 ( 3.51- 5.67) 100% in, 99% home, 80% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#12), bye 80%
Lose: 4.65 ( 2.97- 4.92) 99% in, 88% home, 20% bye, proj. #6 (#3-out), bye 20%
Based on eventual number of wins
(79%) 10W: 5.30 ( 4.95- 5.67) 100% home, 88% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 88%
(17%) 9W: 4.74 ( 4.40- 5.13) 100% in, 99% home, 35% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 35%
( 3%) 8W: 4.18 ( 3.82- 4.50) 100% in, 74% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#11), Van Buren (2-0) 14%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(79%) WWWWWWWW: 5.30 ( 4.95- 5.67) 100% home, 88% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 88%
( 5%) WWWLWWWW: 4.77 ( 4.47- 5.06) 100% in, 99% home, 40% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 40%
( 3%) WWLWWWWW: 4.71 ( 4.40- 4.99) 100% home, 22% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 22%
( 5%) LWWWWWWW: 4.70 ( 4.43- 4.92) 100% in, 98% home, 28% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#9), bye 28%
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (2-0, 115.3, #251, D6 #22), likely in, 95% home (maybe if 8-2), 44% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #4 at 10-0
Week 1 (1-0, 104.4, #330, D6 #29), 82% (bubble if 7-3), 47% home (maybe if 9-1), 9% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #7 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 103.0, #335, D6 #30), 67% (bubble if 7-3), 40% home (maybe if 9-1), 9% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #9 at 8-2
Last season 111.1