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Rankings
#23 of 107 in Division 6
#8 of 26 in Region 22
Strength of schedule #17 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #21 in D6 (+110 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 62-41 A #541 Parkway (0-4) D6 R22, pick: W by 20 (82%), perf. rating 106
08/29 L 63-0 H #22 Marion Local (4-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 45 (1%), perf. rating 103
09/05 W 41-20 A #519 Wayne Trace (0-4) D6 R22, pick: W by 22 (89%), perf. rating 110
09/12 W 55-38 H #372 Fort Loramie (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 6 (64%), perf. rating 123
09/19 A #451 Allen East (1-3) D6 R22, pick: W by 23 (92%)
09/26 H #538 Jefferson (1-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/03 A #123 Bluffton (4-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 25 (5%)
10/10 A #212 Columbus Grove (1-3) D7 R26, pick: L by 11 (23%)
10/17 H #543 Spencerville (1-3) D6 R22, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/24 H #168 Lima Central Catholic (4-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 15 (16%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
6.85 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R22 playoffs
Playoff chances now
23% (bubble if 7-3), 3% home (likely needs 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.25 ( 3.45-17.40) 25% in, 3% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Archbold (3-1) 13%
Lose: 5.30 ( 2.60-14.80) 3% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 9W: 16.25 (15.10-17.40) 100% in, 97% home, 15% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 15%
(10%) 8W: 12.25 (11.00-15.15) 98% in, 16% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Paulding (4-0) 11%
(27%) 7W: 9.30 ( 7.50-12.95) 40% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Archbold (3-1) 17%
(51%) 6W: 6.85 ( 5.25-10.05) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 9%) 5W: 5.30 ( 3.75- 8.10) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWW: 16.25 (15.10-17.40) 100% in, 97% home, 15% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 15%
( 2%) WWWWWL: 12.45 (11.25-14.40) 99% in, 22% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Bluffton (4-0) 16%
( 8%) WWLWWW: 12.20 (11.00-14.05) 97% in, 12% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), W. Reserve (Collins) (3-1) 12%
( 3%) WWWLWL: 10.28 ( 9.05-11.80) 57% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Archbold (3-1) 13%
(11%) WWLLWW: 10.05 ( 8.80-12.20) 56% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Archbold (3-1) 17%
(14%) WWLWWL: 8.70 ( 7.50-10.25) 24% in, proj. out (#9-out), Archbold (3-1) 18%
(49%) WWLLWL: 6.85 ( 5.60- 8.65) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Margaretta (3-1) 18%
( 6%) LWLLWL: 5.00 ( 3.75- 7.30) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 111.7, #277, D6 #23), 23% (bubble if 7-3), 3% home (likely needs 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 107.0, #314, D6 #27), 23% (bubble if 7-3), 4% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 108.1, #308, D6 #25), 31% (bubble if 6-4), 10% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 110.5, #288, D6 #17), 42% (bubble if 6-4), 22% home (maybe if 7-3), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 107.5, #293, D6 #17), 32% (bubble if 6-4), 11% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 105.9