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Region 28 playoff probabilities
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Rankings
#1 of 103 in Division 7
#1 of 25 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #1 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #1 in D7 (+920 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 34-7 H #203 Carey (5-2) D6 R22, pick: W by 31 (92%), perf. rating 160
08/28 W 54-28 A #152 Harvest Prep (2-5) D6 R23, pick: W by 18 (82%), perf. rating 170
09/04 W 57-7 H #460 St Johns (1-6) D7 R26, pick: W by 42 (99%), perf. rating 146
09/11 W 27-3 A #149 Versailles (4-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 28 (95%), perf. rating 168
09/18 W 41-14 H #223 Anna (4-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 37 (99%), perf. rating 157
09/25 W 17-7 A #67 St Henry (4-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 12 (78%), perf. rating 162
10/02 W 33-0 H #275 Fort Recovery (2-5) D7 R28, pick: W by 37 (99%), perf. rating 159
10/09 A #136 New Bremen (3-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 24 (94%)
10/16 H #122 Minster (6-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 25 (95%)
10/23 A #76 Coldwater (6-1) D5 R18, pick: W by 15 (84%)
Regular season projections
10-0 record
24.90 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#1 seed in R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in and home bye
Depending on the next game
Win: 24.85 (16.55-26.15) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
Lose: 22.33 (14.90-23.85) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
Based on eventual number of wins
(75%) 10W: 24.90 (23.25-26.15) 100% bye, #1, bye 100%
(21%) 9W: 21.50 (19.65-23.85) 100% bye, #1, bye 100%
( 4%) 8W: 18.90 (16.55-20.50) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#3), bye 100%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(75%) WWW: 24.90 (23.25-26.15) 100% bye, #1, bye 100%
( 4%) LWW: 22.70 (21.40-23.85) 100% bye, #1, bye 100%
( 3%) WLW: 21.85 (20.55-23.05) 100% bye, #1, bye 100%
(14%) WWL: 21.30 (19.65-22.70) 100% bye, #1, bye 100%
( 2%) LWL: 19.25 (17.70-20.50) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#2), bye 100%
( 1%) WLL: 18.10 (16.55-19.25) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#3), bye 100%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (7-0, 160.6, #35, D7 #1), appears locked in and home bye, proj. #1 at 10-0
Week 6 (6-0, 161.3, #30, D7 #1), appears locked in and home bye, proj. #1 at 10-0
Week 5 (5-0, 160.7, #36, D7 #1), appears locked in and home, likely bye, proj. #1 at 10-0
Week 4 (4-0, 162.4, #29, D7 #1), appears locked in and home, likely bye, proj. #1 at 10-0
Week 3 (3-0, 163.5, #30, D7 #1), appears locked in and likely home, likely bye, proj. #1 at 10-0
Week 2 (2-0, 164.2, #31, D7 #1), appears locked in and likely home, 98% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #1 at 10-0
Week 1 (1-0, 158.8, #38, D7 #1), likely in, 98% home (maybe if 4-6), 91% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #1 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 158.1, #32, D7 #1), 97% (bubble if 3-7), 92% home (maybe if 5-5), 80% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #1 at 8-2
Last season 150.5