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Rankings
#8 of 103 in Division 7
#4 of 25 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #10 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #8 in D7 (+380 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 27-17 H #105 Minster (6-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 21 (17%), perf. rating 121
08/28 W 13-12 A #251 Anna (3-3) D6 R24, pick: L by 30 (7%), perf. rating 119
09/04 W 49-0 A #629 Lehman Catholic (0-6) D7 R28, pick: W by 33 (97%), perf. rating 115
09/12 W 28-24 A #392 Jefferson (3-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 24 (92%), perf. rating 103
09/18 W 34-0 H #465 Crestview (Convoy) (1-5) D6 R22, pick: W by 22 (92%), perf. rating 134
09/25 L 42-7 H #58 Lima Central Catholic (6-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 27 (4%), perf. rating 96
10/02 H #604 Spencerville (0-6) D6 R22, pick: W by 39 (99%)
10/09 A #108 Columbus Grove (5-1) D6 R22, pick: L by 25 (5%)
10/16 H #84 Bluffton (6-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 25 (5%)
10/23 A #228 Allen East (4-2) D6 R22, pick: L by 8 (30%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
5.80 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#8 seed in R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 60% home (maybe if 5-5), 3% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.20 ( 5.35-16.60) 99% in, 60% home, 3% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), Upper Scioto Valley (3-3) 20%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 7W: 12.15 (11.30-14.45) 100% home, 48% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#7), bye 48%
(31%) 6W: 8.60 ( 8.15-11.55) 100% in, 98% home, 1% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#10), Upper Scioto Valley (3-3) 22%
(63%) 5W: 5.80 ( 5.35- 9.70) 99% in, 38% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Cincinnati Country Day (2-4) 21%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WLWW: 12.50 (11.70-14.45) 100% home, 60% bye, proj. #4 (#3-#6), bye 60%
( 2%) WWLW: 11.70 (11.30-13.15) 100% home, 30% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#7), bye 30%
( 3%) WLWL: 9.75 ( 8.95-11.55) 100% home, 2% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#8), Upper Scioto Valley (3-3) 18%
( 3%) WWLL: 8.95 ( 8.15-10.30) 100% in, 98% home, 1% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#9), Upper Scioto Valley (3-3) 21%
(25%) WLLW: 8.55 ( 8.15-10.35) 100% in, 98% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Upper Scioto Valley (3-3) 23%
(63%) WLLL: 5.80 ( 5.35- 8.00) 99% in, 38% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Cincinnati Country Day (2-4) 21%
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (4-2, 112.9, #268, D7 #8), likely in, 60% home (maybe if 5-5), 3% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #8 at 5-5
Week 5 (4-1, 116.3, #247, D7 #8), likely in, 76% home (maybe if 5-5), 6% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #6 at 6-4
Week 4 (3-1, 113.3, #274, D7 #9), likely in, 72% home (maybe if 5-5), 8% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #8 at 5-5
Week 3 (2-1, 122.4, #203, D7 #7), likely in, 86% home (maybe if 4-6), 27% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #5 at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 117.7, #235, D7 #8), 98% (bubble if 3-7), 76% home (maybe if 5-5), 14% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #7 at 6-4
Week 1 (0-1, 106.8, #313, D7 #14), 69% (bubble if 3-7), 37% home (maybe if 5-5), 9% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #10 at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 104.8, #316, D7 #11), 49% (bubble if 4-6), 29% home (maybe if 5-5), 11% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 4-6
Last season 104.7