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Rankings
#7 of 103 in Division 7
#4 of 25 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #6 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #10 in D7 (+434 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 27-17 H #98 Minster (3-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 21 (17%), perf. rating 121
08/28 W 13-12 A #143 Anna (2-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 30 (7%), perf. rating 135
09/04 W 49-0 A #554 Lehman Catholic (0-3) D7 R28, pick: W by 33 (97%), perf. rating 135
09/12 A #401 Jefferson (3-0) D7 R26, pick: W by 24 (92%)
09/18 H #447 Crestview (Convoy) (0-3) D6 R22, pick: W by 30 (97%)
09/25 H #68 Lima Central Catholic (3-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 21 (9%)
10/02 H #597 Spencerville (0-3) D6 R22, pick: W by 43 (99%)
10/09 A #78 Columbus Grove (3-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 21 (8%)
10/16 H #96 Bluffton (3-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 15 (16%)
10/23 A #231 Allen East (3-0) D6 R22, pick: W by 1 (53%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
10.40 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#5 seed in R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 86% home (maybe if 4-6), 27% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 10.20 ( 4.25-24.05) 99% in, 90% home, 29% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 29%
Lose: 6.10 ( 2.65-20.20) 94% in, 43% home, 5% bye, proj. #9 (#2-out), Cincinnati Country Day (1-2) 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 9W: 21.35 (19.45-24.05) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 7%) 8W: 17.55 (15.15-21.45) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 97%
(18%) 7W: 13.85 (10.90-19.00) 100% home, 70% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 70%
(34%) 6W: 10.40 ( 7.80-15.75) 100% in, 99% home, 16% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), bye 16%
(32%) 5W: 7.55 ( 5.00-12.55) 99% in, 75% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Tri-County North (1-2) 13%
( 7%) 4W: 5.65 ( 3.10-11.70) 95% in, 27% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Cincinnati Country Day (1-2) 15%
( 1%) 3W: 4.40 ( 2.65- 7.35) 78% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#8-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWWW: 21.35 (19.45-24.05) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 8%) WWLWLWW: 13.90 (11.70-17.50) 100% home, 71% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 71%
( 4%) WWWWLLW: 13.70 (11.55-17.10) 100% home, 68% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 68%
( 4%) WWLWLWL: 10.95 ( 8.50-14.90) 100% in, 99% home, 22% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#9), bye 22%
(24%) WWLWLLW: 10.25 ( 7.80-13.35) 100% in, 99% home, 13% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Tri-County North (1-2) 13%
(28%) WWLWLLL: 7.45 ( 5.00-11.40) 99% in, 73% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Upper Scioto Valley (2-1) 13%
( 4%) LWLWLLL: 5.10 ( 3.10- 7.70) 92% in, 12% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Cincinnati Country Day (1-2) 15%
( 1%) LLLWLLL: 4.30 ( 2.65- 6.55) 76% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Riverside (DeGraff) (2-1) 22%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 122.4, #203, D7 #7), likely in, 86% home (maybe if 4-6), 27% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #5 at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 117.7, #235, D7 #8), 98% (bubble if 3-7), 76% home (maybe if 5-5), 14% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #7 at 6-4
Week 1 (0-1, 106.8, #313, D7 #14), 69% (bubble if 3-7), 37% home (maybe if 5-5), 9% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #10 at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 104.8, #316, D7 #11), 49% (bubble if 4-6), 29% home (maybe if 5-5), 11% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 4-6
Last season 104.7