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Rankings
#21 of 107 in Division 7
#8 of 27 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #5 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #46 in D7 (-33 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 22-14 A #206 Minster (3-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 34 (6%), perf. rating 111
08/29 L 34-26 H #180 Anna (3-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 20 (16%), perf. rating 112
09/05 L 43-24 H #245 Lehman Catholic (4-0) D7 R28, pick: W by 3 (56%), perf. rating 86
09/12 L 55-38 A #277 Crestview (Convoy) (3-1) D6 R22, pick: L by 6 (36%), perf. rating 88
09/19 A #168 Lima Central Catholic (4-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 27 (5%)
09/26 A #543 Spencerville (1-3) D6 R22, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/03 H #212 Columbus Grove (1-3) D7 R26, pick: L by 19 (11%)
10/10 A #123 Bluffton (4-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 31 (2%)
10/17 H #538 Jefferson (1-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 25 (95%)
10/24 H #451 Allen East (1-3) D6 R22, pick: W by 16 (85%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
3.45 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
5% (likely needs 5-5), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.00 ( 3.55-13.40) 51% in, 3% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#4-out), Ansonia (3-1) 19%
Lose: 3.45 ( 0.00- 9.85) 2% in, proj. out (#9-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 19%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 5W: 8.90 ( 8.05-11.50) 90% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Ansonia (3-1) 20%
(14%) 4W: 5.40 ( 4.85- 9.60) 17% in, proj. out (#9-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 19%
(58%) 3W: 3.45 ( 3.00- 6.75) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(21%) 2W: 1.95 ( 1.85- 5.10) out, proj. out
( 4%) 1W: 0.80 ( 0.75- 1.95) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWLWW: 8.85 ( 8.05-10.45) 86% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Cincinnati College Prep (2-2) 24%
( 3%) WWLLWW: 6.65 ( 6.15- 7.80) 39% in, proj. out (#9-out), Cincinnati College Prep (2-2) 20%
( 9%) LWWLWW: 5.30 ( 4.85- 6.55) 5% in, proj. out (#11-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 20%
(55%) LWLLWW: 3.45 ( 3.40- 4.70) out
( 3%) LWLLLW: 2.30 ( 1.95- 3.10) out
( 4%) LLLLWW: 2.25 ( 1.85- 3.45) out
(13%) LWLLWL: 1.95 ( 1.90- 3.50) out
( 2%) LLLLWL: 0.75 ( 0.75- 1.55) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 99.7, #372, D7 #21), 5% (likely needs 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (0-3, 102.6, #360, D7 #18), 18% (bubble if 4-6), 2% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (0-2, 112.9, #272, D7 #10), 67% (bubble if 4-6), 35% home (maybe if 5-5), 10% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #10 at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 117.2, #234, D7 #13), 67% (bubble if 4-6), 41% home (maybe if 6-4), 15% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #10 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 107.2, #296, D7 #15), 44% (bubble if 5-5), 19% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 107.3