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Rankings
#4 of 107 in Division 7
#1 of 29 in Region 26
Strength of schedule #8 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #2 in D7 (+835 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 22-19 A #155 Shawnee (Lima) (3-1) D3 R10, pick: W by 13 (72%), perf. rating 138
08/30 W 28-7 A #389 St Johns (0-4) D7 R26, pick: W by 19 (83%), perf. rating 131
09/05 W 6-0 A #262 Carey (1-3) D6 R22, pick: W by 21 (88%), perf. rating 125
09/12 W 36-6 H #451 Allen East (1-3) D6 R22, pick: W by 32 (97%), perf. rating 128
09/19 H #372 Fort Loramie (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 27 (95%)
09/27 H #123 Bluffton (4-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 6 (35%)
10/03 A #538 Jefferson (1-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 38 (99%)
10/09 H #543 Spencerville (1-3) D6 R22, pick: W by 40 (99%)
10/17 H #212 Columbus Grove (1-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 10 (74%)
10/24 A #277 Crestview (Convoy) (3-1) D6 R22, pick: W by 15 (84%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
17.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#1 seed in R26 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 97% home (maybe if 6-4), 83% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 17.55 ( 9.25-24.30) 99% in, 98% home, 85% bye, proj. #2 (#1-out), bye 85%
Lose: 14.02 ( 8.95-21.20) 99% in, 82% home, 46% bye, proj. #5 (#1-out), bye 46%
Based on eventual number of wins
(24%) 10W: 21.60 (18.80-24.30) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#2), bye 100%
(39%) 9W: 17.75 (14.35-22.00) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#7), bye 99%
(25%) 8W: 15.25 (11.75-19.00) 100% in, 99% home, 73% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 73%
( 9%) 7W: 12.80 (10.15-16.40) 99% in, 82% home, 14% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 14%
( 2%) 6W: 11.25 ( 9.25-13.60) 98% in, 41% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Columbus Grove (1-3) 11%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(24%) WWWWWW: 21.60 (18.80-24.30) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#2), bye 100%
( 4%) WWWWLW: 19.20 (16.70-22.00) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
( 3%) WWWWWL: 18.55 (15.65-20.80) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(31%) WLWWWW: 17.55 (14.35-20.15) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#7), bye 99%
(14%) WLWWLW: 15.35 (12.30-17.90) 100% home, 76% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 76%
( 8%) WLWWWL: 14.65 (11.75-17.05) 100% in, 99% home, 62% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 62%
( 7%) WLWWLL: 12.60 (10.15-15.15) 99% in, 78% home, 8% bye, proj. #7 (#3-out), Edgerton (4-0) 10%
( 1%) LLWWLL: 11.12 ( 9.55-12.65) 97% in, 38% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Columbus Grove (1-3) 12%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 128.6, #168, D7 #4), likely in, 97% home (maybe if 6-4), 83% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #1 at 9-1
Week 3 (3-0, 125.2, #188, D7 #4), 98% (bubble if 6-4), 87% home (maybe if 7-3), 54% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 127.0, #171, D7 #4), 95% (bubble if 5-5), 79% home (maybe if 7-3), 41% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 118.0, #227, D7 #11), 71% (bubble if 6-4), 47% home (maybe if 7-3), 19% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #11 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 120.9, #205, D7 #6), 60% (bubble if 6-4), 38% home (maybe if 7-3), 17% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Last season 120.3