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Rankings
#4 of 107 in Division 6
#2 of 27 in Region 22
Strength of schedule #11 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #2 in D6 (+723 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/20 W 51-20 H #178 Shawnee (Lima) (2-1) D3 R10, pick: W by 3 (55%), perf. rating 169
08/29 W 41-0 H #342 St Johns (1-2) D7 R26, pick: W by 25 (90%), perf. rating 163
09/04 W 37-34 A #151 Urbana (2-1) D4 R16, pick: W by 20 (87%), perf. rating 136
09/11 A #78 Columbus Grove (3-0) D6 R22, pick: W by 1 (52%)
09/18 A #231 Allen East (3-0) D6 R22, pick: W by 23 (92%)
09/25 A #203 Fort Loramie (2-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 21 (91%)
10/02 A #96 Bluffton (3-0) D5 R18, pick: W by 4 (60%)
10/09 H #401 Jefferson (3-0) D7 R26, pick: W by 38 (99%)
10/16 A #597 Spencerville (0-3) D6 R22, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/23 H #447 Crestview (Convoy) (0-3) D6 R22, pick: W by 41 (99%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
20.90 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#3 seed in R22 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 93% home (maybe if 7-3), 75% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 23.80 (10.75-29.25) 99% in, 99% home, 96% bye, proj. #2 (#1-out), bye 96%
Lose: 17.90 ( 6.70-25.85) 99% in, 87% home, 53% bye, proj. #4 (#1-out), bye 53%
Based on eventual number of wins
(32%) 10W: 24.75 (20.35-29.25) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(33%) 9W: 20.90 (17.00-26.50) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 97%
(22%) 8W: 17.35 (13.40-24.25) 100% in, 98% home, 46% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#11), bye 46%
( 9%) 7W: 14.55 (10.75-21.15) 99% in, 62% home, 4% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), Fairview (Sherwood) (2-1) 13%
( 3%) 6W: 11.75 ( 8.00-17.65) 81% in, 12% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#3-out), Van Buren (3-0) 13%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(32%) WWWWWWW: 24.75 (20.35-29.25) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 2%) WWLWWWW: 21.77 (18.75-25.20) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(18%) LWWWWWW: 20.95 (17.35-25.85) 100% home, 96% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 96%
(11%) WWWLWWW: 20.60 (17.00-25.45) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 98%
( 2%) LWLWWWW: 18.15 (15.05-22.70) 100% in, 99% home, 63% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#9), bye 63%
(15%) LWWLWWW: 17.05 (13.40-21.20) 100% in, 98% home, 39% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#11), bye 39%
( 5%) LWLLWWW: 14.40 (10.75-18.75) 99% in, 67% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Fairview (Sherwood) (2-1) 15%
( 2%) LLLLWWW: 11.55 ( 8.00-14.80) 79% in, 6% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), W. Reserve (Collins) (3-0) 13%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (3-0, 145.3, #68, D6 #4), likely in, 93% home (maybe if 7-3), 75% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 148.0, #61, D6 #3), 98% (bubble if 6-4), 88% home (maybe if 7-3), 64% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 138.9, #100, D6 #6), 88% (bubble if 6-4), 71% home (maybe if 7-3), 40% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 124.6, #178, D6 #12), 63% (bubble if 6-4), 41% home (maybe if 8-2), 17% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #11 at 7-3
Last season 126.7