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Rankings
#6 of 107 in Division 7
#2 of 29 in Region 26
Strength of schedule #6 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #31 in D7 (+37 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 22-21 A #303 Pandora-Gilboa (2-2) D7 R26, pick: W by 26 (88%), perf. rating 109
08/29 L 41-3 H #57 Liberty-Benton (4-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 5 (40%), perf. rating 91
09/05 L 26-21 A #153 Patrick Henry (4-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 15 (20%), perf. rating 126
09/12 W 48-0 H #543 Spencerville (1-3) D6 R22, pick: W by 36 (98%), perf. rating 133
09/19 A #538 Jefferson (1-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 34 (98%)
09/26 H #451 Allen East (1-3) D6 R22, pick: W by 31 (98%)
10/03 A #372 Fort Loramie (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 19 (89%)
10/10 H #277 Crestview (Convoy) (3-1) D6 R22, pick: W by 11 (77%)
10/17 A #168 Lima Central Catholic (4-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 10 (26%)
10/24 H #123 Bluffton (4-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 14 (18%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
7.65 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R26 playoffs
Playoff chances now
37% (likely needs 6-4), 16% home (maybe if 6-4), 6% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.70 ( 1.90-15.45) 37% in, 16% home, 6% bye, proj. out (#1-out), bye 17%
Lose: 5.45 ( 0.80-13.85) 15% in, 3% home, proj. out (#5-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 9%) 7W: 15.30 (15.10-15.45) 100% home, 71% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 71%
(25%) 6W: 11.30 (11.00-14.20) 99% in, 27% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Edon (3-1) 11%
(39%) 5W: 7.65 ( 7.50-12.35) 9% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Arlington (4-0) 14%
(21%) 4W: 5.00 ( 4.80- 9.00) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 6%) 3W: 3.45 ( 2.95- 7.05) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 9%) WWWWWW: 15.30 (15.10-15.45) 100% home, 71% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 71%
( 9%) WWWWLW: 11.45 (11.25-12.50) 99% in, 31% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Edon (3-1) 11%
(15%) WWWWWL: 11.20 (11.00-12.05) 98% in, 21% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Edon (3-1) 10%
( 3%) WWWLWL: 8.15 ( 7.95- 9.20) 12% in, proj. out (#11-out), Arlington (4-0) 19%
(32%) WWWWLL: 7.65 ( 7.50- 8.80) 4% in, proj. out (#10-out), Mohawk (3-1) 17%
( 5%) WWLWLL: 6.15 ( 6.10- 7.25) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Gibsonburg (3-1) 100%
(13%) WWWLLL: 4.95 ( 4.80- 5.75) out
( 4%) WWLLLL: 3.45 ( 3.40- 4.55) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 120.6, #212, D7 #6), 37% (likely needs 6-4), 16% home (maybe if 6-4), 6% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (0-3, 121.8, #204, D7 #5), 43% (likely needs 6-4), 15% home (likely needs 7-3), 5% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (0-2, 119.4, #226, D7 #9), 47% (bubble if 5-5), 22% home (maybe if 6-4), 6% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 138.0, #117, D7 #4), 85% (bubble if 5-5), 71% home (maybe if 6-4), 46% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 148.3, #66, D7 #3), 94% (bubble if 5-5), 86% home (maybe if 6-4), 73% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #1 at 9-1
Last season 151.7