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Rankings
#5 of 107 in Division 6
#3 of 27 in Region 22
Strength of schedule #9 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #4 in D6 (+690 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/20 W 42-12 H #285 Pandora-Gilboa (1-1) D7 R26, pick: W by 26 (88%), perf. rating 154
08/28 W 40-20 A #255 Liberty-Benton (0-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 27 (91%), perf. rating 147
09/04 H #180 Patrick Henry (2-0) D6 R22, pick: W by 22 (89%)
09/11 H #61 Lima Central Catholic (2-0) D6 R22, pick: W by 1 (52%)
09/18 A #601 Spencerville (0-2) D6 R22, pick: W by 49 (99%)
09/25 H #414 Jefferson (2-0) D7 R26, pick: W by 40 (99%)
10/02 A #312 Allen East (2-0) D6 R22, pick: W by 31 (98%)
10/09 H #235 Fort Loramie (1-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/16 A #403 Crestview (Convoy) (0-2) D6 R22, pick: W by 37 (99%)
10/23 A #88 Bluffton (2-0) D5 R18, pick: W by 3 (58%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
5.32 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#3 seed in R22 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 91% home (maybe if 7-3), 65% bye (likely needs 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.36 ( 2.73- 6.47) 99% in, 96% home, 70% bye, proj. #3 (#1-out), bye 70%
Lose: 4.01 ( 2.13- 5.64) 89% in, 49% home, 16% bye, proj. #9 (#1-out), bye 18%
Based on eventual number of wins
(33%) 10W: 6.10 ( 5.78- 6.47) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#3), bye 100%
(33%) 9W: 5.32 ( 4.88- 5.90) 100% home, 91% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 91%
(22%) 8W: 4.58 ( 4.18- 5.16) 100% in, 98% home, 9% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), Patrick Henry (2-0) 12%
( 9%) 7W: 3.96 ( 3.60- 4.40) 99% in, 37% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Paulding (2-0) 14%
( 2%) 6W: 3.36 ( 3.07- 3.77) 70% in, proj. #12 (#9-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(33%) WWWWWWWW: 6.09 ( 5.78- 6.47) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#3), bye 100%
(17%) WLWWWWWW: 5.33 ( 4.99- 5.68) 100% home, 86% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 86%
(13%) WWWWWWWL: 5.28 ( 4.88- 5.63) 100% home, 95% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 95%
(16%) WLWWWWWL: 4.55 ( 4.18- 4.87) 100% in, 97% home, 4% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Patrick Henry (2-0) 14%
( 2%) WLWWWLWL: 3.99 ( 3.71- 4.33) 100% in, 51% home, proj. #8 (#5-#12), Delta (2-0) 14%
( 3%) LLWWWWWL: 3.88 ( 3.60- 4.16) 99% in, 15% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Seneca East (2-0) 16%
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (2-0, 146.5, #68, D6 #5), likely in, 94% home (maybe if 6-4), 77% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 147.0, #66, D6 #3), 97% (bubble if 5-5), 90% home (maybe if 7-3), 74% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 143.7, #80, D6 #5), 89% (bubble if 5-5), 78% home (maybe if 7-3), 60% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 8-2
Last season 141.7