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Rankings
#69 of 107 in Division 6
#22 of 26 in Region 22
Strength of schedule #7 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #61 in D6 (-268 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 55-0 A #180 Anna (3-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 39 (4%), perf. rating 66
08/29 W 25-21 H #519 Wayne Trace (0-4) D6 R22, pick: L by 2 (46%), perf. rating 81
09/05 L 28-14 H #450 Riverside (DeGraff) (2-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 10 (71%), perf. rating 63
09/12 L 48-0 A #212 Columbus Grove (1-3) D7 R26, pick: L by 36 (2%), perf. rating 60
09/19 H #123 Bluffton (4-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 42 (1%)
09/26 H #372 Fort Loramie (0-4) D7 R28, pick: L by 23 (7%)
10/03 A #451 Allen East (1-3) D6 R22, pick: L by 15 (17%)
10/09 A #168 Lima Central Catholic (4-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 40 (1%)
10/17 A #277 Crestview (Convoy) (3-1) D6 R22, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/24 H #538 Jefferson (1-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 1 (53%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
2.30 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R22 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Lose: 1.90 ( 0.40- 8.50) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 4W: 4.70 ( 3.35- 8.70) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(16%) 3W: 3.40 ( 1.85- 6.80) out, proj. out
(40%) 2W: 2.30 ( 0.75- 5.65) out, proj. out
(40%) 1W: 1.20 ( 0.40- 2.70) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LWWLLW: 4.40 ( 3.35- 5.30) out
(10%) LLWLLW: 3.35 ( 2.25- 4.90) out
( 3%) LWLLLW: 3.00 ( 1.85- 4.55) out
(33%) LLLLLW: 2.30 ( 1.15- 3.80) out
( 5%) LLWLLL: 2.25 ( 1.15- 3.80) out
( 2%) LWLLLL: 2.25 ( 0.75- 3.05) out
(40%) LLLLLL: 1.20 ( 0.40- 2.70) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 72.9, #543, D6 #69), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (1-2, 74.6, #536, D6 #64), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (1-1, 84.5, #469, D6 #52), 5% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 83.0, #492, D6 #57), 8% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 84.6, #493, D6 #57), 9% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 2-8
Last season 87.5