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Rankings
#64 of 107 in Division 6
#18 of 26 in Region 23
Strength of schedule #104 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #39 in D6 (+30 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 29-8 A #577 Arlington (0-2) D7 R26, pick: L by 30 (8%), perf. rating 100
08/28 W 54-6 H #675 Ridgedale (0-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 38 (97%), perf. rating 89
09/04 H #562 Waynesfield-Goshen (1-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 14 (78%)
09/11 A #361 Woodmore (2-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 20 (12%)
09/18 H #449 North Baltimore (2-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 3 (43%)
09/25 H #602 Upper Scioto Valley (1-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/02 A #688 Cory-Rawson (0-2) D7 R26, pick: W by 41 (99%)
10/09 A #677 Ridgemont (0-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 38 (99%)
10/16 A #578 Perry (Lima) (1-1) D6 R22, pick: W by 14 (82%)
10/23 H #664 Hardin Northern (0-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 37 (99%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
3.80 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#8 seed in R23 playoffs
Playoff chances now
76% (bubble if 7-3), 45% home (maybe if 8-2), 12% bye (likely needs 10-0)
Depending on the next game
Win: 3.85 ( 1.36- 5.33) 85% in, 54% home, 15% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), bye 18%
Lose: 3.14 ( 1.23- 4.64) 36% in, 10% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Centerburg (1-1) 10%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 8%) 10W: 5.12 ( 4.88- 5.33) 100% home, 89% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 89%
(27%) 9W: 4.46 ( 4.24- 4.82) 100% in, 96% home, 20% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), bye 20%
(32%) 8W: 3.80 ( 3.66- 4.20) 98% in, 36% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), River (2-0) 9%
(20%) 7W: 3.21 ( 3.08- 3.56) 46% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Waterford (2-0) 13%
( 9%) 6W: 2.64 ( 2.52- 3.11) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 3%) 5W: 2.13 ( 2.03- 2.44) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 8%) WWWWWWWW: 5.12 ( 4.88- 5.33) 100% home, 89% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 89%
( 3%) WWLWWWWW: 4.46 ( 4.24- 4.64) 100% in, 96% home, 17% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), bye 17%
(23%) WLWWWWWW: 4.45 ( 4.33- 4.64) 100% in, 96% home, 20% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), bye 20%
( 5%) WLWWWWLW: 3.83 ( 3.71- 4.02) 99% in, 34% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), West Jefferson (1-1) 10%
(22%) WLLWWWWW: 3.80 ( 3.66- 4.03) 98% in, 33% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), River (2-0) 9%
( 6%) LLLWWWWW: 3.21 ( 3.10- 3.40) 47% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Newcomerstown (1-1) 13%
( 8%) WLLWWWLW: 3.19 ( 3.08- 3.38) 41% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Waterford (2-0) 13%
( 4%) LLLWWWLW: 2.62 ( 2.52- 2.78) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Centerburg (1-1) 33%
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (2-0, 82.5, #479, D6 #64), 69% (bubble if 7-3), 39% home (maybe if 8-2), 10% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #9 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 85.0, #461, D6 #59), 75% (bubble if 7-3), 45% home (maybe if 8-2), 11% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #10 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 61.8, #598, D6 #81), 23% (bubble if 7-3), 9% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 60.7