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Rankings
#61 of 108 in Division 6
#16 of 26 in Region 23
Strength of schedule #104 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #60 in D6 (-210 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 29-8 A #583 Arlington (0-6) D7 R26, pick: L by 30 (8%), perf. rating 97
08/28 W 54-6 H #683 Ridgedale (0-6) D7 R28, pick: W by 38 (97%), perf. rating 85
09/04 W 59-28 H #587 Waynesfield-Goshen (4-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 14 (78%), perf. rating 107
09/11 L 41-24 A #303 Woodmore (6-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 17 (16%), perf. rating 86
09/18 L 46-36 H #424 North Baltimore (6-0) D7 R26, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 74
09/25 W 38-22 H #616 Upper Scioto Valley (3-3) D7 R28, pick: W by 27 (96%), perf. rating 77
10/02 A #682 Cory-Rawson (1-5) D7 R26, pick: W by 38 (99%)
10/09 A #656 Ridgemont (2-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 33 (99%)
10/16 A #609 Perry (Lima) (2-4) D6 R22, pick: W by 22 (93%)
10/23 H #648 Hardin Northern (3-3) D7 R28, pick: W by 34 (99%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
12.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#9 seed in R23 playoffs
Playoff chances now
95% (bubble if 7-3), 12% home
Depending on the next game
Win: 12.10 ( 7.50-13.50) 95% in, 12% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), West Jefferson (5-1) 15%
Lose: 11.05 ( 7.80-12.45) 80% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#7-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
(87%) 8W: 12.10 (11.70-13.50) 99% in, 14% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), West Jefferson (5-1) 15%
(12%) 7W: 10.30 ( 9.30-12.45) 65% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Waterford (4-2) 20%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(87%) WWWW: 12.10 (11.70-13.50) 99% in, 14% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), West Jefferson (5-1) 15%
( 2%) WLWW: 10.70 ( 9.95-11.45) 76% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Waterford (4-2) 23%
( 1%) WWWL: 10.35 ( 9.30-11.45) 67% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Waterford (4-2) 22%
( 8%) WWLW: 9.95 ( 9.55-11.40) 60% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Newark Catholic (4-2) 21%
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (4-2, 82.7, #478, D6 #61), 95% (bubble if 7-3), 12% home, proj. #9 at 8-2
Week 5 (3-2, 83.7, #475, D6 #60), 90% (bubble if 7-3), 11% home, proj. #10 at 8-2
Week 4 (3-1, 87.7, #448, D6 #55), 92% (bubble if 7-3), 54% home (maybe if 8-2), 14% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 8-2
Week 3 (3-0, 89.9, #434, D6 #53), 94% (bubble if 7-3), 72% home (maybe if 8-2), 21% bye (likely needs 10-0), proj. #5 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 82.5, #479, D6 #64), 69% (bubble if 7-3), 39% home (maybe if 8-2), 10% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #9 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 85.0, #461, D6 #59), 75% (bubble if 7-3), 45% home (maybe if 8-2), 11% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #10 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 61.8, #598, D6 #81), 23% (bubble if 7-3), 9% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 60.7