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Rankings
#83 of 107 in Division 6
#24 of 27 in Region 23
Strength of schedule #97 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #72 in D6 (-375 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 42-15 H #375 River Valley (Caled.) (2-2) D4 R14, pick: L by 35 (5%), perf. rating 57
08/29 W 36-7 A #665 Ridgedale (1-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 20 (84%), perf. rating 85
09/05 L 47-6 A #473 North Baltimore (4-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 23
09/12 W 30-29 H #526 Ridgemont (3-1) D7 R26, pick: L by 22 (10%), perf. rating 76
09/19 H #694 Cory-Rawson (0-4) D7 R26, pick: W by 32 (98%)
09/26 H #498 Lucas (2-2) D7 R27, pick: L by 18 (13%)
10/03 A #573 Waynesfield-Goshen (2-2) D7 R26, pick: L by 10 (26%)
10/10 A #574 Upper Scioto Valley (2-2) D7 R26, pick: L by 10 (26%)
10/17 H #595 Perry (Lima) (2-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/24 A #667 Hardin Northern (1-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 19 (89%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
7.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R23 playoffs
Playoff chances now
11% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.90 ( 3.60-15.85) 11% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out), Ridgewood (4-0) 15%
Lose: 5.70 ( 3.25-13.85) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 8W: 14.20 (13.15-15.85) 96% in, 24% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Northmor (2-2) 13%
(11%) 7W: 12.20 (10.60-14.10) 60% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Ridgewood (4-0) 16%
(20%) 6W: 10.05 ( 8.25-12.20) 5% in, proj. out (#10-out), Ridgewood (4-0) 20%
(29%) 5W: 7.95 ( 6.05-10.70) out, proj. out
(27%) 4W: 6.05 ( 4.65- 9.70) out, proj. out
(10%) 3W: 4.65 ( 3.60- 7.60) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWWWWW: 14.20 (13.15-15.85) 96% in, 24% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Northmor (2-2) 13%
( 6%) WLWWWW: 12.50 (11.40-13.85) 67% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Ridgewood (4-0) 17%
( 7%) WLLWWW: 10.35 ( 8.95-12.10) 6% in, proj. out (#11-out), West Jefferson (4-0) 19%
( 6%) WLWLWW: 10.10 ( 9.30-12.15) 5% in, proj. out (#10-out), Northmor (2-2) 21%
( 5%) WLLWLW: 8.15 ( 6.75- 9.60) out
(16%) WLLLWW: 7.95 ( 6.85- 9.75) out
(21%) WLLLLW: 5.70 ( 4.65- 7.50) out
( 9%) WLLLLL: 4.65 ( 3.60- 6.85) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 59.8, #603, D6 #83), 11% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (1-2, 53.2, #628, D6 #87), 1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 72.4, #549, D6 #69), 25% (bubble if 7-3), 10% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 69.2, #567, D6 #73), 31% (bubble if 6-4), 13% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 67.8, #567, D6 #75), 27% (bubble if 6-4), 12% home (maybe if 8-2), 4% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 67.3