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Rankings
#50 of 104 in Division 7
#12 of 26 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #79 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #39 in D7 (+5 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 32-0 H #654 Mississinawa Valley (0-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 10 (68%), perf. rating 86
08/28 L 48-0 A #165 North Union (2-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 39 (3%), perf. rating 67
09/04 A #480 Elgin (2-0) D6 R23, pick: L by 14 (22%)
09/11 H #688 Cory-Rawson (0-2) D7 R26, pick: W by 37 (99%)
09/18 H #602 Upper Scioto Valley (1-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 12 (77%)
09/25 A #578 Perry (Lima) (1-1) D6 R22, pick: W by 2 (55%)
10/02 A #449 North Baltimore (2-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 19 (11%)
10/09 H #664 Hardin Northern (0-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 31 (98%)
10/16 H #675 Ridgedale (0-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 34 (99%)
10/23 A #677 Ridgemont (0-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 32 (98%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
3.18 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#7 seed in R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
95% (bubble if 4-6), 66% home (maybe if 6-4), 12% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 3.82 ( 2.15- 4.66) 100% in, 96% home, 42% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#12), bye 42%
Lose: 2.64 ( 0.70- 4.01) 94% in, 59% home, 5% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Fort Loramie (1-1) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 9W: 4.47 ( 4.38- 4.66) 100% home, 90% bye, proj. #3 (#2-#6), bye 90%
(16%) 8W: 3.82 ( 3.66- 4.12) 100% home, 38% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 38%
(29%) 7W: 3.18 ( 3.05- 3.58) 100% in, 96% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#11), Tri-County North (1-1) 15%
(28%) 6W: 2.60 ( 2.45- 2.90) 100% in, 59% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Fort Loramie (1-1) 15%
(16%) 5W: 2.08 ( 1.96- 2.44) 95% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Fort Loramie (1-1) 19%
( 5%) 4W: 1.61 ( 1.50- 1.88) 39% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 5%) WWWWWWWW: 4.47 ( 4.38- 4.67) 100% home, 90% bye, proj. #3 (#2-#6), bye 90%
( 8%) WWWWLWWW: 3.82 ( 3.67- 4.01) 100% home, 37% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#7), bye 37%
( 7%) LWWWWWWW: 3.81 ( 3.67- 4.01) 100% home, 38% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#8), bye 38%
( 3%) WWWLLWWW: 3.21 ( 3.10- 3.44) 100% in, 97% home, 10% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Tri-County North (1-1) 14%
(22%) LWWWLWWW: 3.17 ( 3.06- 3.37) 100% in, 96% home, 5% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#11), Tri-County North (1-1) 15%
( 6%) LWLWLWWW: 2.61 ( 2.50- 2.79) 100% in, 43% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), Fort Loramie (1-1) 20%
(18%) LWWLLWWW: 2.60 ( 2.45- 2.79) 100% in, 65% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Fort Loramie (1-1) 13%
(11%) LWLLLWWW: 2.06 ( 2.00- 2.25) 95% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Fort Loramie (1-1) 18%
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (1-1, 70.2, #562, D7 #50), 92% (bubble if 4-6), 61% home (maybe if 6-4), 11% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 71.2, #552, D7 #44), 87% (bubble if 5-5), 63% home (maybe if 6-4), 17% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 59.6, #607, D7 #60), 53% (bubble if 5-5), 31% home (maybe if 6-4), 10% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 5-5
Last season 54.2