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Rankings
#51 of 107 in Division 7
#18 of 29 in Region 26
Strength of schedule #69 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #69 in D7 (-242 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 26-6 A #600 Mississinawa Valley (3-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 30 (92%), perf. rating 93
08/29 L 42-19 H #413 Ada (3-1) D7 R26, pick: L by 22 (13%), perf. rating 57
09/05 L 36-14 A #574 Upper Scioto Valley (2-2) D7 R26, pick: L by 7 (35%), perf. rating 37
09/12 W 37-6 A #667 Hardin Northern (1-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 23 (91%), perf. rating 87
09/19 H #473 North Baltimore (4-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 13 (21%)
09/26 A #694 Cory-Rawson (0-4) D7 R26, pick: W by 34 (98%)
10/03 H #603 Elgin (2-2) D6 R23, pick: W by 10 (74%)
10/10 H #595 Perry (Lima) (2-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 8 (70%)
10/17 A #665 Ridgedale (1-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 24 (94%)
10/24 H #526 Ridgemont (3-1) D7 R26, pick: L by 6 (35%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
9.45 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#12 seed in R26 playoffs
Playoff chances now
52% (bubble if 6-4), 26% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.35 ( 5.40-17.45) 92% in, 73% home, 35% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 38%
Lose: 8.80 ( 2.20-14.40) 41% in, 13% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Edon (3-1) 11%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 9%) 8W: 15.55 (13.45-17.45) 100% home, 79% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 79%
(24%) 7W: 12.30 (10.55-15.30) 99% in, 68% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), Edgerton (4-0) 11%
(30%) 6W: 9.45 ( 8.00-13.45) 61% in, 3% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#4-out), Edon (3-1) 11%
(23%) 5W: 7.20 ( 5.75-10.55) 5% in, proj. out (#9-out), Edon (3-1) 18%
(11%) 4W: 5.03 ( 3.95- 9.40) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 3%) 3W: 3.60 ( 2.55- 6.15) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 9%) WWWWWW: 15.55 (13.45-17.45) 100% home, 79% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 79%
( 6%) WWWWWL: 12.65 (11.20-14.60) 100% in, 77% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Edgerton (4-0) 10%
(16%) LWWWWW: 12.03 (10.55-14.40) 99% in, 63% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Edgerton (4-0) 11%
(19%) LWWWWL: 9.40 ( 8.35-11.60) 52% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Mohawk (3-1) 13%
( 8%) LWLWWL: 7.20 ( 6.15- 8.85) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out), Edgerton (4-0) 16%
(10%) LWWLWL: 6.85 ( 5.75- 8.45) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), North Baltimore (4-0) 33%
( 8%) LWLLWL: 4.75 ( 3.95- 6.95) out
( 2%) LWLLLL: 3.60 ( 2.55- 5.60) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 67.8, #573, D7 #51), 52% (bubble if 6-4), 26% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 3 (1-2, 70.6, #556, D7 #51), 53% (bubble if 6-4), 22% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 78.9, #516, D7 #41), 76% (bubble if 6-4), 46% home (maybe if 7-3), 16% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 79.4, #520, D7 #43), 75% (bubble if 6-4), 52% home (maybe if 7-3), 21% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 80.9, #512, D7 #37), 69% (bubble if 6-4), 47% home (maybe if 7-3), 21% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #10 at 7-3
Last season 78.0