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Rankings
#29 of 103 in Division 7
#11 of 26 in Region 26
Strength of schedule #94 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #28 in D7 (+47 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 44-12 A #605 Bucyrus (2-1) D6 R22, pick: W by 29 (91%), perf. rating 107
08/28 W 56-18 H #667 Hardin Northern (0-3) D7 R28, pick: W by 37 (97%), perf. rating 86
09/04 W 42-19 H #661 Ridgedale (0-3) D7 R28, pick: W by 42 (99%), perf. rating 67
09/11 A #576 Perry (Lima) (2-1) D6 R22, pick: W by 16 (83%)
09/18 A #434 Elgin (3-0) D6 R23, pick: L by 9 (29%)
09/25 A #669 Ridgemont (1-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 37 (99%)
10/02 H #595 Waynesfield-Goshen (1-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/09 A #678 Cory-Rawson (0-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 38 (99%)
10/16 H #632 Crestline (2-1) D7 R27, pick: W by 30 (98%)
10/23 A #594 Upper Scioto Valley (2-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 20 (91%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
14.40 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#5 seed in R26 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 94% home (maybe if 7-3), 48% bye (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 14.40 ( 6.15-20.25) 99% in, 98% home, 56% bye, proj. #4 (#1-out), bye 56%
Lose: 11.15 ( 3.30-17.05) 98% in, 74% home, 11% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 11%
Based on eventual number of wins
(24%) 10W: 17.60 (16.50-20.25) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 98%
(42%) 9W: 14.40 (13.25-17.85) 100% in, 99% home, 55% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 55%
(22%) 8W: 11.85 (10.40-15.95) 100% in, 98% home, 7% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Jefferson (3-0) 14%
( 8%) 7W: 9.65 ( 8.25-14.10) 99% in, 64% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Pandora-Gilboa (1-2) 14%
( 3%) 6W: 7.55 ( 6.15-10.50) 98% in, 17% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Mohawk (2-1) 18%
( 1%) 5W: 5.80 ( 4.70- 8.10) 69% in, 3% home, proj. #12 (#8-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(24%) WWWWWWW: 17.60 (16.50-20.25) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 98%
( 2%) LWWWWWW: 15.05 (13.95-17.05) 100% home, 73% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 73%
(37%) WLWWWWW: 14.35 (13.25-17.00) 100% in, 99% home, 53% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#9), bye 53%
( 7%) LLWWWWW: 11.85 (10.75-15.00) 100% in, 98% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Jefferson (3-0) 15%
( 4%) WLWLWWW: 11.70 (10.45-14.10) 100% in, 97% home, 5% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Jefferson (3-0) 14%
( 7%) WLWWWWL: 11.55 (10.40-14.15) 100% in, 97% home, 4% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Jefferson (3-0) 13%
( 3%) LLWWWWL: 9.35 ( 8.25-11.65) 99% in, 59% home, proj. #8 (#5-out), Pandora-Gilboa (1-2) 15%
( 1%) LLWLWWL: 7.20 ( 6.15- 8.75) 97% in, 9% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Mohawk (2-1) 21%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (3-0, 83.2, #478, D7 #29), likely in, 94% home (maybe if 7-3), 48% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 87.3, #448, D7 #27), likely in, 89% home (maybe if 7-3), 43% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 84.6, #462, D7 #24), 94% (bubble if 6-4), 75% home (maybe if 8-2), 22% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #6 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 81.7, #489, D7 #34), 89% (bubble if 5-5), 71% home (maybe if 7-3), 30% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 9-1
Last season 92.5