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Rankings
#37 of 107 in Division 7
#6 of 25 in Region 27
Strength of schedule #42 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #50 in D7 (-70 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 51-0 H #671 Plymouth (0-4) D7 R25, pick: W by 38 (96%), perf. rating 97
08/29 L 31-0 A #243 Hillsdale (4-0) D7 R27, pick: L by 22 (13%), perf. rating 72
09/05 L 26-14 A #430 Danville (2-2) D7 R27, pick: L by 2 (46%), perf. rating 75
09/12 W 62-0 H #707 Vanlue (0-4) D7 R26, pick: W by 49 (99%), perf. rating 48
09/19 H #424 Martins Ferry (1-2) D6 R23, pick: L by 10 (27%)
09/26 A #603 Elgin (2-2) D6 R23, pick: W by 18 (87%)
10/03 A #259 Amanda-Clearcreek (1-3) D5 R19, pick: L by 31 (2%)
10/10 A Greenville Reynolds PA (4-0) D7
10/17 H #381 Lutheran East (1-3) D3 R9, pick: L by 17 (13%)
10/24 H #666 Crestline (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 33 (99%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
8.06 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#12 seed in R27 playoffs
Playoff chances now
36% (bubble if 5-5), 9% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 8.87 ( 2.87-18.30) 68% in, 25% home, 3% bye, proj. #11 (#1-out), Strasburg-Franklin (4-0) 11%
Lose: 5.89 ( 0.70-14.32) 24% in, 3% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Trimble (3-1) 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 7W: 13.26 (10.02-15.78) 100% in, 93% home, 20% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 20%
(13%) 6W: 10.56 ( 7.65-14.07) 97% in, 42% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Strasburg-Franklin (4-0) 12%
(34%) 5W: 8.06 ( 4.83-10.94) 56% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), Trimble (3-1) 17%
(40%) 4W: 5.49 ( 3.22- 8.52) 2% in, proj. out (#9-out)
( 9%) 3W: 3.32 ( 1.76- 5.39) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWLWWW: 13.46 (10.02-15.63) 100% in, 94% home, 21% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 21%
( 5%) WWLWLW: 10.79 ( 7.65-12.81) 98% in, 46% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Strasburg-Franklin (4-0) 14%
( 5%) WWLLWW: 10.18 ( 7.65-13.56) 96% in, 31% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Strasburg-Franklin (4-0) 11%
(14%) LWLWLW: 8.37 ( 6.04-10.94) 68% in, 3% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), Trimble (3-1) 15%
( 6%) LWLLWW: 7.96 ( 5.33-10.18) 51% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Trimble (3-1) 21%
(12%) WWLLLW: 7.66 ( 4.83-10.03) 45% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Trimble (3-1) 17%
(35%) LWLLLW: 5.44 ( 3.22- 8.52) 2% in, proj. out (#9-out), South Gallia (3-1) 19%
( 8%) LLLLLW: 3.32 ( 1.76- 4.99) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 79.5, #498, D7 #37), 36% (bubble if 5-5), 9% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 3 (1-2, 87.3, #445, D7 #33), 23% (bubble if 5-5), 5% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 92.8, #419, D7 #27), 51% (bubble if 5-5), 25% home (maybe if 7-3), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 98.5, #370, D7 #22), 68% (bubble if 5-5), 40% home (maybe if 7-3), 16% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 96.1, #398, D7 #24), 76% (bubble if 5-5), 49% home (maybe if 6-4), 22% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Last season 87.9