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Rankings
#26 of 103 in Division 7
#4 of 27 in Region 27
Strength of schedule #18 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #28 in D7 (+65 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 29-13 A #582 Catholic Cent. (Steub.) (4-3) D7 R27, pick: W by 13 (72%), perf. rating 89
08/28 L 28-7 H #239 Hillsdale (6-1) D6 R21, pick: L by 29 (7%), perf. rating 84
09/04 L 41-7 H #203 Carey (5-2) D6 R22, pick: L by 31 (4%), perf. rating 69
09/11 W 28-22 A #563 Willard (3-4) D5 R18, pick: W by 23 (91%), perf. rating 79
09/18 W 34-14 H #552 Calvert (0-7) D7 R26, pick: W by 5 (62%), perf. rating 98
09/25 L 20-7 A #325 Colonel Crawford (4-3) D6 R23, pick: L by 25 (6%), perf. rating 88
10/02 W 49-0 H #656 Buckeye Central (1-6) D7 R26, pick: W by 36 (99%), perf. rating 100
10/09 A #245 Seneca East (5-2) D6 R22, pick: L by 28 (3%)
10/16 H #137 Hopewell-Loudon (7-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 34 (1%)
10/23 A #538 Wynford (2-5) D6 R22, pick: W by 11 (77%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
8.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#11 seed in R27 playoffs
Playoff chances now
67% (likely needs 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 10.85 ( 7.95-15.35) 100% in, 58% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#11), Fisher Catholic (6-1) 32%
Lose: 7.95 ( 5.25-12.60) 66% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), Eastern (Reedsville) (5-2) 30%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 6W: 11.20 ( 9.15-12.85) 100% in, 72% home, proj. #8 (#5-#11), Fisher Catholic (6-1) 38%
(72%) 5W: 8.00 ( 6.80-10.85) 88% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Eastern (Reedsville) (5-2) 30%
(25%) 4W: 6.05 ( 5.25- 7.45) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LWW: 11.70 (10.45-12.60) 100% in, 86% home, proj. #8 (#5-#10), Fisher Catholic (6-1) 40%
( 2%) WLW: 10.85 ( 9.15-12.40) 100% in, 66% home, proj. #8 (#6-#11), Fisher Catholic (6-1) 38%
(71%) LLW: 8.00 ( 6.80- 9.40) 88% in, proj. #11 (#9-out), Eastern (Reedsville) (5-2) 30%
(25%) LLL: 6.05 ( 5.25- 7.45) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out), Eastern (Reedsville) (5-2) 40%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (4-3, 86.7, #453, D7 #26), 67% (likely needs 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. #11 at 5-5
Week 6 (3-3, 86.5, #457, D7 #30), 66% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. #11 at 5-5
Week 5 (3-2, 84.1, #471, D7 #33), 56% (bubble if 5-5), 4% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. #11 at 5-5
Week 4 (2-2, 77.9, #505, D7 #33), 48% (bubble if 4-6), 2% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 82.7, #481, D7 #31), 49% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 81.2, #488, D7 #33), 44% (bubble if 4-6), 9% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 83.8, #470, D7 #27), 55% (bubble if 4-6), 21% home (maybe if 5-5), 5% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #11 at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 80.6, #492, D7 #35), 37% (bubble if 4-6), 16% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 78.8