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Rankings
#31 of 103 in Division 7
#6 of 27 in Region 27
Strength of schedule #17 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #30 in D7 (+36 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 29-13 A #585 Catholic Cent. (Steub.) (1-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 13 (72%), perf. rating 89
08/28 L 28-7 H #218 Hillsdale (3-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 29 (7%), perf. rating 87
09/04 L 40-7 H #206 Carey (1-2) D6 R22, pick: L by 31 (4%), perf. rating 71
09/11 A #606 Willard (2-1) D5 R18, pick: W by 23 (91%)
09/18 H #539 Calvert (0-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 10 (73%)
09/25 A #269 Colonel Crawford (1-2) D6 R23, pick: L by 28 (4%)
10/02 H #601 Buckeye Central (1-2) D7 R26, pick: W by 25 (95%)
10/09 A #263 Seneca East (3-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 28 (3%)
10/16 H #95 Hopewell-Loudon (3-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 39 (1%)
10/23 A #574 Wynford (1-2) D6 R22, pick: W by 14 (82%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
8.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#12 seed in R27 playoffs
Playoff chances now
49% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.75 ( 2.30-18.55) 54% in, 6% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#3-out), Eastern (Beaver) (2-1) 16%
Lose: 4.90 ( 1.40-13.55) 7% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Eastern (Beaver) (2-1) 23%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 7W: 13.75 (10.35-16.50) 100% in, 94% home, 4% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#10), Fisher Catholic (2-1) 15%
( 8%) 6W: 10.85 ( 7.90-13.80) 99% in, 50% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Fisher Catholic (2-1) 15%
(45%) 5W: 8.35 ( 5.65-11.90) 76% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Eastern (Beaver) (2-1) 17%
(28%) 4W: 6.80 ( 3.50-10.25) 22% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Eastern (Beaver) (2-1) 15%
(13%) 3W: 5.35 ( 3.00- 9.10) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
( 4%) 2W: 3.90 ( 2.25- 6.70) out, proj. out
( 1%) 1W: 2.65 ( 1.40- 3.35) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWWLW: 13.65 (10.35-15.05) 100% in, 92% home, 2% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#10), Fisher Catholic (2-1) 17%
( 4%) WWLWWLW: 10.95 ( 7.90-12.90) 99% in, 54% home, proj. #8 (#5-out), Fisher Catholic (2-1) 16%
( 3%) WWWWLLW: 10.50 ( 8.60-12.55) 99% in, 37% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Eastern (Beaver) (2-1) 15%
(43%) WWLWLLW: 8.20 ( 5.65-10.30) 75% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Eastern (Beaver) (2-1) 17%
(11%) WLLWLLW: 7.25 ( 4.90- 8.90) 34% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Eastern (Beaver) (2-1) 15%
(11%) WWLWLLL: 6.45 ( 3.80- 8.30) 11% in, proj. out (#9-out), Eastern (Reedsville) (2-1) 18%
( 6%) WLLWLLL: 5.40 ( 3.75- 7.20) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Eastern (Reedsville) (2-1) 30%
( 1%) LLLLLLL: 2.65 ( 1.40- 3.35) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 82.7, #481, D7 #31), 49% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 81.2, #488, D7 #33), 44% (bubble if 4-6), 9% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 83.8, #470, D7 #27), 55% (bubble if 4-6), 21% home (maybe if 5-5), 5% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #11 at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 80.6, #492, D7 #35), 37% (bubble if 4-6), 16% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 78.8