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Rankings
#61 of 105 in Division 4
#18 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #19 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #67 in D4 (-283 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 42-15 A #603 Elgin (2-2) D6 R23, pick: W by 35 (95%), perf. rating 102
08/29 L 20-7 H #338 Madison (Mansfield) (2-2) D3 R10, pick: W by 14 (76%), perf. rating 83
09/05 L 38-15 H #173 Buckeye Valley (4-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 19 (14%), perf. rating 91
09/12 W 21-14 H #398 Pleasant (1-3) D5 R20, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 104
09/19 A #355 Marion Harding (1-3) D2 R7, pick: L by 5 (38%)
09/26 H #28 Shelby (4-0) D4 R14, pick: L by 42 (1%)
10/03 A #392 Highland (Marengo) (2-2) D4 R15, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/10 A #52 Galion (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 38 (1%)
10/17 H #152 Clear Fork (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/24 A #140 Ontario (2-2) D3 R10, pick: L by 30 (2%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
5.25 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
5% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.75 ( 3.80-20.55) 9% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Perkins (1-3) 17%
Lose: 4.30 ( 2.00-19.05) 2% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out), Perkins (1-3) 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 5W: 10.55 ( 9.20-14.65) 61% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Perkins (1-3) 17%
(25%) 4W: 7.10 ( 5.65-12.15) 6% in, proj. out (#10-out), Perkins (1-3) 18%
(35%) 3W: 5.25 ( 3.80- 9.85) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(35%) 2W: 3.45 ( 2.00- 5.80) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WLWLWL: 10.60 ( 9.65-12.60) 59% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Perkins (1-3) 18%
( 1%) WLWLLW: 10.10 ( 9.20-12.20) 57% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Perkins (1-3) 23%
( 2%) LLWLWL: 9.05 ( 7.50-10.60) 27% in, proj. out (#10-out), Bay (3-1) 17%
(20%) WLWLLL: 6.95 ( 5.65- 9.20) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Napoleon (2-2) 20%
(22%) LLWLLL: 5.35 ( 4.00- 7.35) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Bay (3-1) 25%
(12%) WLLLLL: 5.00 ( 3.80- 7.00) out
(35%) LLLLLL: 3.45 ( 2.00- 5.80) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 99.2, #375, D4 #61), 5% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (1-2, 97.9, #383, D4 #59), 4% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (1-1, 106.1, #320, D4 #47), 22% (bubble if 5-5), 9% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (1-0, 114.8, #251, D4 #34), 55% (bubble if 5-5), 32% home (maybe if 6-4), 13% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 116.3, #234, D4 #32), 64% (bubble if 5-5), 41% home (maybe if 6-4), 17% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 6-4
Last season 117.6