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Rankings
#43 of 105 in Division 4
#13 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #44 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #40 in D4 (-53 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 21-20 H #260 Margaretta (3-1) D6 R22, pick: W by 20 (82%), perf. rating 114
08/29 W 42-12 A #496 Firelands (1-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 7 (64%), perf. rating 126
09/06 W 60-22 A #568 Willard (2-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 34 (97%), perf. rating 127
09/12 L 17-0 A #265 Elyria Catholic (1-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 10 (72%), perf. rating 90
09/19 H #386 Sandusky (1-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 15 (83%)
09/26 A #425 Norwalk (1-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 17 (86%)
10/03 H #331 Port Clinton (3-1) D5 R18, pick: W by 8 (70%)
10/10 A #281 Huron (2-2) D6 R22, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/17 H #170 Edison (Milan) (3-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 15 (16%)
10/24 A #256 Bellevue (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 6 (35%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
12.90 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#10 seed in R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
89% (bubble if 4-6), 47% home (maybe if 7-3), 15% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 14.65 ( 6.70-25.70) 94% in, 54% home, 17% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), bye 18%
Lose: 10.10 ( 5.10-21.30) 64% in, 13% home, 2% bye, proj. #12 (#2-out), Perkins (1-3) 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 7%) 9W: 21.70 (18.95-25.70) 100% home, 93% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 93%
(17%) 8W: 18.15 (15.10-22.35) 100% in, 99% home, 42% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#11), bye 42%
(25%) 7W: 15.25 (12.00-19.65) 99% in, 70% home, 4% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), Cloverleaf (3-1) 13%
(24%) 6W: 12.90 ( 9.20-17.25) 97% in, 23% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#3-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 16%
(16%) 5W: 10.65 ( 7.65-14.80) 79% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Perkins (1-3) 18%
( 8%) 4W: 8.60 ( 6.30-11.95) 42% in, proj. out (#9-out), Napoleon (2-2) 18%
( 2%) 3W: 7.05 ( 5.10- 9.25) 6% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 7%) WWWWWW: 21.70 (18.95-25.70) 100% home, 93% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 93%
( 4%) WWWWWL: 18.55 (15.75-21.20) 100% in, 98% home, 44% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#11), bye 44%
( 9%) WWWWLW: 17.65 (15.10-20.60) 100% in, 99% home, 35% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 35%
( 8%) WWWLLW: 15.60 (13.05-19.30) 100% in, 81% home, 5% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Orrville (3-1) 13%
(10%) WWWWLL: 14.75 (12.20-17.65) 99% in, 56% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 16%
(12%) WWWLLL: 13.00 (10.40-16.25) 97% in, 21% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 16%
( 8%) WWLLLL: 10.45 ( 8.00-13.20) 75% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Perkins (1-3) 20%
( 2%) LLLLLL: 7.05 ( 5.10- 9.25) 6% in, proj. out (#11-out), Napoleon (2-2) 40%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 110.6, #285, D4 #43), 89% (bubble if 4-6), 47% home (maybe if 7-3), 15% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 3 (3-0, 119.8, #223, D4 #32), 92% (bubble if 4-6), 71% home (maybe if 6-4), 32% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 117.1, #243, D4 #32), 85% (bubble if 5-5), 57% home (maybe if 7-3), 20% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 105.5, #317, D4 #45), 53% (bubble if 5-5), 28% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #9 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 111.7, #263, D4 #37), 59% (bubble if 5-5), 32% home (maybe if 7-3), 10% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 6-4
Last season 120.3