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Rankings
#61 of 80 in Division 1
#13 of 19 in Region 1
Strength of schedule #24 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #72 in D1 (-573 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 27-7 A #70 Findlay (3-0) D2 R6, pick: L by 21 (17%), perf. rating 117
08/28 L 18-14 H #102 Hoover (2-1) D2 R7, pick: L by 28 (8%), perf. rating 129
09/04 L 44-36 A #153 Brunswick (2-1) D1 R1, pick: L by 6 (37%), perf. rating 119
09/11 H #212 Stow-Munroe Falls (2-1) D1 R1, pick: W by 1 (52%)
09/18 H #35 Highland (Medina) (2-1) D2 R5, pick: L by 31 (3%)
09/25 A #36 Wadsworth (3-0) D2 R5, pick: L by 33 (2%)
10/02 A #22 Hudson (3-0) D1 R1, pick: L by 37 (1%)
10/09 H #119 North Royalton (3-0) D2 R5, pick: L by 13 (20%)
10/16 A #46 Nordonia (3-0) D2 R5, pick: L by 30 (2%)
10/23 H #258 Solon (2-1) D1 R1, pick: W by 8 (70%)
Regular season projections
1-9 record
1.90 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R1 playoffs
Playoff chances now
15% (bubble if 3-7), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.00 ( 1.90-28.45) 26% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Austintown-Fitch (1-1) 16%
Lose: 1.85 ( 0.00-19.95) 2% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Austintown-Fitch (1-1) 16%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 5W: 17.45 (16.40-19.95) 100% in, 54% home, proj. #8 (#6-#11), Brunswick (2-1) 18%
( 4%) 4W: 12.85 (11.70-16.20) 98% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Austintown-Fitch (1-1) 14%
(16%) 3W: 8.10 ( 7.50-14.10) 59% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Austintown-Fitch (1-1) 17%
(29%) 2W: 4.40 ( 4.30-10.00) 2% in, proj. out (#10-out), Austintown-Fitch (1-1) 23%
(30%) 1W: 1.90 ( 1.85- 6.30) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(20%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WLWLWLW: 13.15 (12.45-15.05) 99% in, 5% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Austintown-Fitch (1-1) 15%
(11%) WLLLWLW: 8.10 ( 8.00-11.15) 55% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Austintown-Fitch (1-1) 18%
( 2%) WLLLWLL: 5.55 ( 4.90- 7.45) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out), Canton McKinley (2-1) 31%
( 4%) LLLLWLW: 5.50 ( 4.85- 7.95) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out), Austintown-Fitch (1-1) 23%
(20%) WLLLLLW: 4.40 ( 4.40- 6.90) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Strongsville (1-2) 24%
(10%) WLLLLLL: 1.90 ( 1.90- 5.00) out
(18%) LLLLLLW: 1.85 ( 1.85- 3.75) out
(20%) LLLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (0-3, 120.4, #221, D1 #61), 15% (bubble if 3-7), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 2 (0-2, 123.4, #196, D1 #57), 30% (bubble if 3-7), 6% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 113.5, #259, D1 #66), 19% (bubble if 3-7), 4% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 1-9
Week 0 (0-0, 115.8, #234, D1 #61), 37% (bubble if 3-7), 14% home (maybe if 5-5), 2% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 2-8
Last season 116.9