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Rankings
#55 of 80 in Division 1
#11 of 19 in Region 1
Strength of schedule #60 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #38 in D1 (-20 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 47-42 A #104 Berea-Midpark (3-1) D1 R1, pick: L by 15 (25%), perf. rating 148
08/28 L 42-7 H #57 Olmsted Falls (3-1) D2 R6, pick: L by 11 (28%), perf. rating 97
09/04 W 44-36 H #216 Medina (1-3) D1 R1, pick: W by 6 (63%), perf. rating 130
09/11 L 63-18 A #45 Mentor (3-1) D1 R1, pick: L by 24 (8%), perf. rating 97
09/18 H #327 Shaker Heights (1-3) D2 R5, pick: W by 21 (91%)
09/25 A #400 Lorain (1-3) D1 R1, pick: W by 24 (94%)
10/02 A #183 Euclid (2-2) D1 R1, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/09 H #114 Riverside (Painesville) (2-2) D2 R5, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/16 H #279 Cleveland Heights (0-4) D1 R1, pick: W by 13 (80%)
10/23 A #87 Strongsville (2-2) D1 R1, pick: L by 19 (11%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
15.05 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#10 seed in R1 playoffs
Playoff chances now
95% (bubble if 3-7), 17% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 14.35 ( 5.60-27.00) 97% in, 19% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#2-out), Berea-Midpark (3-1) 17%
Lose: 9.45 ( 4.45-24.35) 79% in, 3% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#4-out), Austintown-Fitch (2-1) 16%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 6%) 8W: 23.05 (20.55-27.00) 100% home, 8% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#8), Euclid (2-2) 23%
(17%) 7W: 18.75 (16.20-24.35) 100% in, 56% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#11), Berea-Midpark (3-1) 23%
(27%) 6W: 15.05 (12.40-20.55) 100% in, 7% home, proj. #10 (#6-#12), Berea-Midpark (3-1) 20%
(29%) 5W: 11.90 ( 9.35-16.90) 99% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Austintown-Fitch (2-1) 16%
(16%) 4W: 9.95 ( 6.90-14.95) 87% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Canton McKinley (3-1) 18%
( 4%) 3W: 8.10 ( 5.10-11.90) 60% in, proj. #12 (#10-out), Canton McKinley (3-1) 20%
( 1%) 2W: 6.80 ( 4.45- 8.70) 21% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 6%) WWWWWW: 23.05 (20.55-27.00) 100% home, 8% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#8), Euclid (2-2) 23%
( 4%) WWWLWW: 18.85 (16.35-21.35) 100% in, 80% home, proj. #8 (#5-#10), Berea-Midpark (3-1) 26%
(11%) WWWWWL: 18.70 (16.20-21.85) 100% in, 45% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-#11), Berea-Midpark (3-1) 23%
(15%) WWWLWL: 15.00 (12.55-19.85) 100% in, 4% home, proj. #10 (#7-#12), Berea-Midpark (3-1) 21%
( 7%) WWLWWL: 15.00 (12.40-19.30) 100% in, 4% home, proj. #10 (#7-#12), Berea-Midpark (3-1) 18%
(20%) WWLLWL: 11.85 ( 9.35-15.55) 99% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Austintown-Fitch (2-1) 17%
(10%) WWLLLL: 9.95 ( 7.50-13.15) 85% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Canton McKinley (3-1) 19%
( 1%) LLLLLL: 6.80 ( 4.45- 8.70) 21% in, proj. out (#11-out), Canton McKinley (3-1) 23%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 124.4, #186, D1 #55), 95% (bubble if 3-7), 17% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 128.8, #153, D1 #46), 94% (bubble if 3-7), 39% home (maybe if 7-3), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 127.8, #163, D1 #48), 80% (bubble if 3-7), 36% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 136.5, #115, D1 #41), 91% (bubble if 3-7), 60% home (maybe if 6-4), 20% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 129.0, #155, D1 #49), 68% (bubble if 3-7), 39% home (maybe if 5-5), 11% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 5-5
Last season 129.2