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Rankings
#72 of 107 in Division 6
#21 of 27 in Region 23
Strength of schedule #21 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #66 in D6 (-292 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 42-7 N #224 Colonel Crawford (4-0) D6 R23, pick: L by 9 (34%), perf. rating 66
08/29 L 31-8 A #299 Indian Lake (2-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 22 (13%), perf. rating 77
09/05 W 32-31 H #583 Madison-Plains (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 22 (89%), perf. rating 64
09/12 L 41-7 A #396 Greeneview (2-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 17 (16%), perf. rating 47
09/19 H #620 Southeastern Local (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 17 (86%)
09/26 A #417 West Liberty-Salem (2-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 23 (7%)
10/03 A #257 Mechanicsburg (3-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 35 (1%)
10/10 H #209 Northeastern (4-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 36 (1%)
10/17 A #674 Triad (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 29 (97%)
10/24 H #295 West Jefferson (4-0) D6 R23, pick: L by 30 (2%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
1.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R23 playoffs
Playoff chances now
unlikely to contend for playoffs
Depending on the next game
Win: 2.20 ( 1.10-14.05) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Lose: 1.25 ( 0.40- 9.35) out, proj. out
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 5W: 7.10 ( 5.85- 9.55) out, proj. out
(12%) 4W: 4.30 ( 3.05- 9.35) out, proj. out
(72%) 3W: 1.95 ( 1.50- 5.90) out, proj. out
(13%) 2W: 1.45 ( 0.80- 4.30) out, proj. out
( 1%) 1W: 0.98 ( 0.40- 2.35) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WLLWWL: 5.50 ( 4.35- 7.95) out
( 3%) WLLLWW: 5.18 ( 4.25- 7.40) out
( 7%) WWLLWL: 3.80 ( 3.05- 5.50) out
(71%) WLLLWL: 1.90 ( 1.50- 4.65) out
( 2%) WLLLLL: 1.50 ( 1.10- 3.50) out
(11%) LLLLWL: 1.20 ( 0.80- 2.75) out
( 1%) LLLLLL: 0.98 ( 0.40- 2.35) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 71.4, #554, D6 #72), unlikely to contend for playoffs, proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (1-2, 77.1, #515, D6 #61), 1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (0-2, 81.9, #491, D6 #59), 2% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 83.7, #486, D6 #55), 9% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 96.9, #388, D6 #31), 39% (bubble if 6-4), 24% home (maybe if 7-3), 13% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 104.0