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Region 19 playoff probabilities
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Rankings
#74 of 105 in Division 5
#19 of 27 in Region 19
Strength of schedule #36 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #59 in D5 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/20 A #176 Colonel Crawford (0-0) D6 R23, pick: L by 36 (5%)
08/28 H #195 Indian Lake (0-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 33 (5%)
09/04 A #549 Madison-Plains (0-0) D6 R24, pick: W by 6 (63%)
09/11 H #357 Greeneview (0-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 21 (11%)
09/18 A #632 Southeastern Local (0-0) D7 R28, pick: W by 24 (93%)
09/25 H #371 West Liberty-Salem (0-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 19 (11%)
10/02 H #275 Mechanicsburg (0-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/09 A #254 Northeastern (0-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 31 (2%)
10/16 H #660 Triad (0-0) D7 R28, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/23 A #326 West Jefferson (0-0) D6 R23, pick: L by 25 (5%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
2.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R19 playoffs
Playoff chances now
9% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.30 ( 1.10-24.40) 39% in, 19% home, 5% bye, proj. out (#2-out), bye 14%
Lose: 3.35 ( 0.00-23.15) 8% in, 2% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#1-out), Portsmouth (0-0) 8%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 9W: 18.95 (13.15-23.15) 100% in, 91% home, 38% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#11), bye 38%
( 2%) 8W: 16.20 (10.15-21.05) 99% in, 75% home, 8% bye, proj. #7 (#2-out), bye 8%
( 4%) 7W: 12.95 ( 8.10-19.45) 81% in, 23% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#3-out), Grove City Christian (0-0) 8%
( 7%) 6W: 10.05 ( 5.35-15.65) 38% in, 3% home, proj. out (#5-out), Grove City Christian (0-0) 8%
(12%) 5W: 7.30 ( 3.40-13.75) 7% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Portsmouth (0-0) 10%
(18%) 4W: 4.95 ( 1.90-11.70) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(24%) 3W: 2.95 ( 1.10- 9.10) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(20%) 2W: 1.45 ( 0.70- 7.20) out, proj. out
(10%) 1W: 0.35 ( 0.35- 4.25) out, proj. out
( 2%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Most likely first round opponents
Portsmouth (0-0) 8%
Grove City Christian (0-0) 7%
Dawson-Bryant (0-0) 7%
Africentric Early Coll. (0-0) 7%
Ridgewood (0-0) 7%
Most likely second round opponents
Wheelersburg (0-0) 18%
Ironton (0-0) 15%
Columbus Academy (0-0) 14%
Fort Frye (0-0) 9%
Africentric Early Coll. (0-0) 8%
Weekly summary info
Week 0 (0-0, 104.3, #322, D5 #39), 74% (bubble if 5-5), 51% home (maybe if 7-3), 23% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Last season 70.9