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Rankings
#72 of 106 in Division 5
#16 of 27 in Region 19
Strength of schedule #45 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #88 in D5 (-500 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/20 L 45-21 A #325 Colonel Crawford (4-3) D6 R23, pick: L by 36 (5%), perf. rating 72
08/28 L 40-7 H #234 Indian Lake (4-3) D5 R18, pick: L by 35 (4%), perf. rating 67
09/04 L 30-20 A #324 Madison-Plains (5-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 20 (13%), perf. rating 93
09/11 L 21-14 H #462 Greeneview (4-3) D5 R20, pick: L by 23 (9%), perf. rating 73
09/18 W 22-0 A #586 Southeastern Local (3-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 10 (73%), perf. rating 97
09/25 L 33-27 H #361 West Liberty-Salem (4-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 19 (11%), perf. rating 90
10/02 L 49-15 H #208 Mechanicsburg (6-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 29 (3%), perf. rating 69
10/09 A #569 Northeastern (1-6) D6 R24, pick: W by 14 (82%)
10/16 H #617 Triad (2-5) D7 R28, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/23 A #281 West Jefferson (6-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 27 (4%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
4.06 Harbin points (divisor 98)
out of R19 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.06 ( 2.28- 8.34) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Lose: 2.94 ( 1.52- 7.22) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 4W: 7.11 ( 6.65- 8.34) 21% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(76%) 3W: 4.06 ( 3.70- 7.22) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(19%) 2W: 2.94 ( 2.28- 4.88) out, proj. out
( 1%) 1W: 1.88 ( 1.52- 2.34) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 4%) WWW: 7.11 ( 6.65- 8.34) 21% in, proj. out (#11-out), South Point (6-1) 51%
(76%) WWL: 4.06 ( 3.70- 5.33) out
(16%) LWL: 2.94 ( 2.59- 3.81) out
( 3%) WLL: 2.64 ( 2.28- 3.45) out
( 1%) LLL: 1.88 ( 1.52- 2.34) out
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (1-6, 82.6, #489, D5 #72), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 6 (1-5, 83.7, #474, D5 #65), 3% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 5 (1-4, 81.7, #486, D5 #69), 2% (likely needs 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 4 (0-4, 78.8, #498, D5 #74), 2% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (0-3, 77.4, #517, D5 #76), 8% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (0-2, 79.6, #496, D5 #72), 16% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 81.7, #486, D5 #71), 14% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 78.7, #504, D5 #74), 9% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 70.9