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Rankings
#77 of 107 in Division 6
#14 of 27 in Region 24
Strength of schedule #48 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #96 in D6 (-760 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 29-6 H #434 Westfall (3-1) D4 R15, pick: W by 6 (61%), perf. rating 54
08/29 L 26-20 A #491 Grove City Christian (3-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 26 (10%), perf. rating 73
09/05 L 32-31 A #554 Fairbanks (1-3) D6 R23, pick: L by 22 (11%), perf. rating 72
09/12 L 58-13 H #257 Mechanicsburg (3-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 33 (2%), perf. rating 50
09/19 A #209 Northeastern (4-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 41 (1%)
09/26 H #578 Catholic Cent. (Sprfd.) (3-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/03 A #396 Greeneview (2-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 28 (4%)
10/10 H #506 Cedarville (2-2) D7 R28, pick: L by 12 (21%)
10/17 H #620 Southeastern Local (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 10 (74%)
10/24 A #456 Greenon (2-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 21 (8%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
2.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R24 playoffs
Playoff chances now
6% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.65 ( 2.80-11.95) 62% in, 12% home, proj. #12 (#5-out)
Lose: 2.20 ( 0.00-10.70) 5% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) 16%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 4W: 7.10 ( 6.40- 9.25) 78% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Dayton Christian (3-1) 16%
(17%) 3W: 4.50 ( 3.95- 8.75) 5% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(31%) 2W: 2.20 ( 1.80- 6.30) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(31%) 1W: 0.70 ( 0.35- 4.10) out, proj. out
(15%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 4%) LWLWWW: 7.00 ( 6.40- 8.60) 76% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Dayton Christian (3-1) 17%
( 4%) LWLLWW: 4.60 ( 4.25- 6.35) 4% in, proj. out (#11-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) 31%
(10%) LWLWWL: 4.40 ( 4.00- 6.20) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out), Coldwater (2-2) 19%
( 5%) LLLWWL: 2.55 ( 1.80- 4.25) out
(20%) LWLLWL: 2.20 ( 2.20- 3.90) out
( 8%) LWLLLL: 1.85 ( 1.50- 3.10) out
(21%) LLLLWL: 0.35 ( 0.35- 1.90) out
(15%) LLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 64.9, #583, D6 #77), 6% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (0-3, 65.2, #586, D6 #78), 10% (likely needs 4-6), 2% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (0-2, 61.1, #597, D6 #80), 9% (bubble if 4-6), 2% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 1-9
Week 1 (0-1, 54.1, #622, D6 #85), 8% (bubble if 4-6), 2% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 1-9
Week 0 (0-0, 67.6, #569, D6 #77), 33% (bubble if 5-5), 16% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 78.3