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Rankings
#44 of 107 in Division 6
#11 of 27 in Region 24
Strength of schedule #87 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #33 in D6 (+30 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 39-6 A #607 Westfall (0-3) D5 R19, pick: L by 16 (23%), perf. rating 108
08/28 W 71-7 H #588 Grove City Christian (0-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 24 (89%), perf. rating 122
09/04 W 30-20 H #517 Fairbanks (0-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 20 (87%), perf. rating 90
09/11 A #320 Mechanicsburg (2-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 14 (20%)
09/18 H #534 Northeastern (0-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 21 (91%)
09/25 A #683 Catholic Cent. (Sprfd.) (0-3) D7 R28, pick: W by 45 (99%)
10/02 H #347 Greeneview (2-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 7 (33%)
10/09 A #573 Cedarville (1-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 24 (94%)
10/16 A #560 Southeastern Local (2-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 22 (93%)
10/23 H #495 Greenon (2-1) D5 R20, pick: W by 16 (85%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
13.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#8 seed in R24 playoffs
Playoff chances now
87% (bubble if 6-4), 54% home (maybe if 8-2), 10% bye (likely needs 10-0)
Depending on the next game
Win: 17.45 ( 6.25-22.80) 99% in, 93% home, 43% bye, proj. #5 (#1-out), bye 43%
Lose: 12.65 ( 3.10-20.15) 84% in, 44% home, 2% bye, proj. #9 (#2-out), Versailles (2-1) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 9%) 10W: 19.50 (16.45-22.80) 100% home, 80% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 80%
(25%) 9W: 16.30 (13.00-21.55) 100% in, 97% home, 9% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#11), Valley (3-0) 14%
(33%) 8W: 13.15 ( 9.75-18.50) 99% in, 55% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Versailles (2-1) 15%
(20%) 7W: 10.80 ( 7.60-16.95) 84% in, 11% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#4-out), Versailles (2-1) 14%
( 9%) 6W: 8.70 ( 5.20-13.10) 38% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-0) 18%
( 4%) 5W: 6.95 ( 4.25-11.45) 7% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
( 1%) 4W: 5.40 ( 3.80- 7.95) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 9%) WWWWWWW: 19.50 (16.45-22.80) 100% home, 80% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 80%
(18%) LWWWWWW: 16.35 (13.45-20.15) 100% in, 96% home, 7% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), Valley (3-0) 15%
( 6%) WWWLWWW: 15.85 (13.00-18.50) 100% in, 98% home, 10% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), Valley (3-0) 13%
(24%) LWWLWWW: 13.05 ( 9.75-16.80) 99% in, 50% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Versailles (2-1) 15%
( 4%) LLWLWWW: 11.60 ( 8.90-14.85) 93% in, 20% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Versailles (2-1) 13%
( 8%) LWWLWWL: 10.25 ( 7.60-13.35) 77% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-0) 17%
( 4%) LWWLWLW: 10.25 ( 7.85-13.75) 78% in, 6% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-0) 15%
( 1%) LLWLLLL: 5.40 ( 3.80- 7.95) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (3-0, 94.4, #406, D6 #44), 87% (bubble if 6-4), 54% home (maybe if 8-2), 10% bye (likely needs 10-0), proj. #8 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 98.0, #377, D6 #39), 84% (bubble if 6-4), 58% home (maybe if 8-2), 22% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 93.0, #415, D6 #48), 68% (bubble if 6-4), 41% home (maybe if 8-2), 13% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 71.1, #549, D6 #75), 22% (bubble if 5-5), 10% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 69.3