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Rankings
#49 of 106 in Division 5
#11 of 25 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #83 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #58 in D5 (-185 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 40-6 H #567 Blanchester (1-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 32 (93%), perf. rating 118
08/29 L 21-0 A #366 Waynesville (1-3) D5 R20, pick: L by 7 (36%), perf. rating 71
09/05 L 32-0 A #209 Northeastern (4-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 75
09/12 W 41-7 H #554 Fairbanks (1-3) D6 R23, pick: W by 17 (84%), perf. rating 120
09/19 A #257 Mechanicsburg (3-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 21 (9%)
09/26 H #506 Cedarville (2-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 19 (89%)
10/03 H #583 Madison-Plains (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 28 (96%)
10/10 A #620 Southeastern Local (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 30 (98%)
10/17 H #456 Greenon (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 13 (80%)
10/24 A #578 Catholic Cent. (Sprfd.) (3-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 25 (95%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
12.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#6 seed in R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
83% (bubble if 6-4), 38% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 15.00 ( 6.55-17.40) 99% in, 89% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#3-out), Purcell Marian (2-2) 13%
Lose: 11.85 ( 2.35-14.15) 81% in, 33% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Purcell Marian (2-2) 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 7%) 8W: 15.25 (13.80-17.40) 100% in, 97% home, 8% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Purcell Marian (2-2) 12%
(56%) 7W: 12.35 (10.70-16.35) 99% in, 54% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Purcell Marian (2-2) 16%
(26%) 6W: 9.55 ( 8.15-12.95) 72% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Miami East (3-1) 15%
( 8%) 5W: 7.35 ( 5.60-10.60) 13% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Miami East (3-1) 23%
( 2%) 4W: 5.70 ( 3.75- 9.10) 2% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 7%) WWWWWW: 15.25 (13.80-17.40) 100% in, 97% home, 8% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Purcell Marian (2-2) 12%
(54%) LWWWWW: 12.35 (10.70-14.15) 99% in, 53% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Purcell Marian (2-2) 16%
( 2%) LWLWWW: 10.97 ( 9.60-12.95) 95% in, 23% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Purcell Marian (2-2) 17%
( 3%) LWWWWL: 9.90 ( 8.50-11.85) 80% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Purcell Marian (2-2) 15%
(14%) LWWWLW: 9.50 ( 8.15-11.80) 63% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Miami East (3-1) 17%
( 5%) LLWWWW: 9.45 ( 8.15-11.60) 77% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Miami East (3-1) 16%
( 2%) LWWWLL: 7.20 ( 5.95- 8.60) 4% in, proj. out (#11-out), Miami East (3-1) 38%
( 3%) LLWWLW: 6.90 ( 5.60- 8.55) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out), Miami East (3-1) 50%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 95.8, #396, D5 #49), 83% (bubble if 6-4), 38% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #6 at 7-3
Week 3 (1-2, 91.8, #418, D5 #56), 70% (bubble if 5-5), 30% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 113.2, #270, D5 #26), 96% (bubble if 5-5), 84% home (maybe if 6-4), 37% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 118.9, #219, D5 #22), 94% (bubble if 5-5), 81% home (maybe if 7-3), 54% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 116.7, #228, D5 #22), 90% (bubble if 5-5), 75% home (maybe if 7-3), 42% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Last season 119.6