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Rankings
#31 of 107 in Division 6
#7 of 27 in Region 24
Strength of schedule #37 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #29 in D6 (+50 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 32-20 H #400 Washington (1-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 13 (72%), perf. rating 111
08/28 L 35-12 H #151 Urbana (2-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 12 (27%), perf. rating 93
09/04 W 34-8 A #560 Southeastern Local (2-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 26 (93%), perf. rating 110
09/11 H #406 Madison-Plains (3-0) D6 R24, pick: W by 14 (80%)
09/18 A #347 Greeneview (2-1) D5 R20, pick: W by 1 (52%)
09/25 H #587 Triad (2-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 35 (99%)
10/02 A #517 Fairbanks (0-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 25 (95%)
10/09 H #305 West Jefferson (2-1) D6 R23, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/16 A #534 Northeastern (0-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 26 (96%)
10/23 H #410 West Liberty-Salem (1-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 15 (84%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
18.50 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#4 seed in R24 playoffs
Playoff chances now
94% (bubble if 5-5), 79% home (maybe if 6-4), 43% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 18.40 ( 6.05-25.05) 99% in, 90% home, 52% bye, proj. #4 (#1-out), bye 53%
Lose: 11.45 ( 3.40-20.75) 71% in, 36% home, 4% bye, proj. #10 (#1-out), Versailles (2-1) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
(26%) 9W: 21.90 (18.75-25.05) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 98%
(26%) 8W: 18.50 (15.50-23.20) 100% in, 99% home, 60% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 60%
(21%) 7W: 15.25 (12.10-19.95) 100% in, 93% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#12), Valley (3-0) 14%
(15%) 6W: 12.40 ( 9.05-18.35) 98% in, 44% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Valley (3-0) 13%
( 8%) 5W: 9.90 ( 6.80-15.70) 66% in, 7% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), Madison-Plains (3-0) 14%
( 3%) 4W: 7.60 ( 5.20-12.00) 22% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Madison-Plains (3-0) 22%
( 1%) 3W: 5.85 ( 3.90- 9.45) 2% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(26%) WWWWWWW: 21.90 (18.75-25.05) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 98%
(10%) WLWWWWW: 18.45 (15.80-21.20) 100% in, 99% home, 60% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 60%
( 9%) WWWWLWW: 18.38 (15.50-21.50) 100% in, 99% home, 58% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 58%
( 3%) WWWWLWL: 15.65 (13.30-18.30) 100% in, 97% home, 7% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Valley (3-0) 15%
( 9%) WLWWLWW: 14.90 (12.10-18.35) 100% in, 94% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Valley (3-0) 13%
( 5%) WLWWLWL: 12.25 (10.00-14.90) 99% in, 41% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Valley (3-0) 13%
( 3%) LLWWLWW: 11.45 ( 9.05-14.15) 93% in, 19% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Versailles (2-1) 15%
( 1%) LLWLLLL: 5.90 ( 4.10- 8.85) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Madison-Plains (3-0) 50%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 106.3, #320, D6 #31), 94% (bubble if 5-5), 79% home (maybe if 6-4), 43% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 2 (1-1, 103.9, #335, D6 #33), 88% (bubble if 5-5), 70% home (maybe if 6-4), 39% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 112.6, #271, D6 #21), 91% (bubble if 4-6), 79% home (maybe if 6-4), 57% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #2 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 111.0, #275, D6 #23), 79% (bubble if 6-4), 59% home (maybe if 7-3), 31% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Last season 114.2