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Rankings
#17 of 107 in Division 6
#4 of 27 in Region 24
Strength of schedule #40 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #34 in D6 (+32 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 28-6 A #325 Washington (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 9 (66%), perf. rating 140
08/29 L 47-43 A #345 Urbana (1-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 2 (54%), perf. rating 100
09/05 W 54-0 H #620 Southeastern Local (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 36 (98%), perf. rating 117
09/12 W 58-13 A #583 Madison-Plains (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 33 (98%), perf. rating 129
09/19 H #396 Greeneview (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 21 (91%)
09/26 A #674 Triad (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/03 H #554 Fairbanks (1-3) D6 R23, pick: W by 35 (99%)
10/10 A #295 West Jefferson (4-0) D6 R23, pick: W by 3 (58%)
10/17 H #209 Northeastern (4-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 4 (40%)
10/24 A #417 West Liberty-Salem (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 20 (91%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
15.85 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#2 seed in R24 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 94% home (maybe if 6-4), 68% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 15.65 ( 6.50-22.75) 99% in, 97% home, 73% bye, proj. #3 (#1-out), bye 73%
Lose: 9.95 ( 4.70-18.55) 97% in, 65% home, 20% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 20%
Based on eventual number of wins
(25%) 9W: 19.75 (16.75-22.75) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
(37%) 8W: 15.85 (13.00-20.50) 100% home, 97% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#7), bye 97%
(26%) 7W: 12.40 ( 9.65-16.95) 100% in, 98% home, 28% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#11), bye 28%
(10%) 6W: 9.80 ( 6.95-15.40) 99% in, 69% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Perry (Lima) (2-2) 15%
( 2%) 5W: 7.20 ( 5.05-10.80) 92% in, 16% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Anna (3-1) 21%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(25%) WWWWWW: 19.75 (16.75-22.75) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
( 2%) WWWWWL: 17.20 (15.50-19.35) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(10%) WWWLWW: 15.90 (13.40-18.90) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#7), bye 98%
(24%) WWWWLW: 15.70 (13.00-19.05) 100% home, 96% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 96%
( 3%) WWWWLL: 13.30 (11.05-15.95) 100% in, 99% home, 43% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 43%
(18%) WWWLLW: 12.10 ( 9.65-15.20) 100% in, 98% home, 20% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), bye 20%
( 5%) WWWLLL: 9.85 ( 7.40-12.30) 99% in, 69% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Perry (Lima) (2-2) 15%
( 2%) LWWLLL: 7.00 ( 5.05- 8.70) 90% in, 7% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Anna (3-1) 22%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 114.8, #257, D6 #17), likely in, 94% home (maybe if 6-4), 68% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #2 at 8-2
Week 3 (2-1, 108.5, #297, D6 #26), 98% (bubble if 4-6), 86% home (maybe if 6-4), 46% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 106.9, #315, D6 #27), 90% (bubble if 5-5), 70% home (maybe if 6-4), 35% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 109.7, #294, D6 #18), 93% (bubble if 4-6), 79% home (maybe if 6-4), 51% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 102.3, #338, D6 #23), 79% (bubble if 4-6), 62% home (maybe if 5-5), 36% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #5 at 6-4
Last season 103.5