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Rankings
#67 of 107 in Division 7
#17 of 27 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #13 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #51 in D7 (-80 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 50-7 H #393 Northwestern (Sprfd.) (3-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 13 (28%), perf. rating 32
08/29 L 60-0 A #245 Lehman Catholic (4-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 38 (3%), perf. rating 56
09/05 L 54-0 A #257 Mechanicsburg (3-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 36 (2%), perf. rating 54
09/12 L 48-2 H #209 Northeastern (4-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 42 (1%), perf. rating 56
09/19 A #554 Fairbanks (1-3) D6 R23, pick: L by 17 (14%)
09/26 H #456 Greenon (2-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/03 A #578 Catholic Cent. (Sprfd.) (3-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 11 (24%)
10/10 H #396 Greeneview (2-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 30 (2%)
10/17 A #583 Madison-Plains (0-4) D6 R24, pick: L by 10 (26%)
10/24 H #506 Cedarville (2-2) D7 R28, pick: L by 20 (9%)
Regular season projections
1-9 record
1.50 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
2% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 3.05 ( 0.80-11.90) 8% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 21%
Lose: 0.00 ( 0.00-10.15) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 4W: 6.35 ( 5.15- 8.75) 39% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 7%) 3W: 4.50 ( 2.70- 7.50) 2% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(15%) 2W: 2.70 ( 1.20- 5.50) out, proj. out
(30%) 1W: 1.50 ( 0.40- 3.35) out, proj. out
(44%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LLWLWW: 4.55 ( 4.45- 5.90) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Cincinnati College Prep (2-2) 100%
( 2%) LLWLLW: 3.75 ( 2.95- 5.05) out
( 4%) LLWLWL: 2.30 ( 2.25- 3.65) out
( 4%) LLLLLW: 1.90 ( 1.10- 3.15) out
( 9%) LLWLLL: 1.50 ( 1.50- 2.75) out
( 3%) WLLLLL: 1.20 ( 0.80- 1.65) out
(11%) LLLLWL: 0.40 ( 0.40- 1.55) out
(44%) LLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 56.9, #620, D7 #67), 2% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 3 (0-3, 56.3, #619, D7 #69), 3% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 2 (0-2, 61.2, #596, D7 #58), 8% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 1 (0-1, 61.1, #603, D7 #60), 8% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 0 (0-0, 75.4, #532, D7 #42), 35% (bubble if 5-5), 16% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 67.8