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Region 28 playoff probabilities
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Rankings
#71 of 104 in Division 7
#19 of 26 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #11 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #99 in D7 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 A #442 Northwestern (Sprfd.) (0-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 32 (7%)
08/28 H #339 Lehman Catholic (0-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 36 (4%)
09/04 H #275 Mechanicsburg (0-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 40 (1%)
09/11 A #254 Northeastern (0-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 43 (1%)
09/18 H #504 Fairbanks (0-0) D5 R19, pick: L by 24 (7%)
09/25 A #483 Greenon (0-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 29 (3%)
10/02 H #585 Catholic Cent. (Sprfd.) (0-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 11 (24%)
10/09 A #357 Greeneview (0-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 38 (1%)
10/16 H #549 Madison-Plains (0-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 17 (13%)
10/23 A #503 Cedarville (0-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 26 (4%)
Regular season projections
1-9 record
1.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
8% (bubble if 4-6), 3% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.60 ( 0.45-22.10) 32% in, 14% home, 4% bye, proj. out (#1-out), bye 11%
Lose: 1.10 ( 0.00-21.45) 6% in, 2% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#1-out), New Bremen (0-0) 9%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 7W: 13.20 (10.10-17.05) 100% in, 96% home, 20% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), bye 20%
( 1%) 6W: 10.80 ( 6.55-16.00) 99% in, 69% home, 6% bye, proj. #7 (#2-out), Minster (0-0) 8%
( 3%) 5W: 8.30 ( 4.45-13.40) 84% in, 23% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), New Bremen (0-0) 9%
( 6%) 4W: 6.20 ( 2.80-12.40) 41% in, 3% home, proj. out (#6-out), Ansonia (0-0) 9%
(10%) 3W: 4.25 ( 1.55- 9.20) 7% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), New Bremen (0-0) 12%
(18%) 2W: 2.45 ( 0.80- 7.55) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(28%) 1W: 1.10 ( 0.35- 4.75) out, proj. out
(32%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Most likely first round opponents
New Bremen (0-0) 8%
Ridgemont (0-0) 7%
Minster (0-0) 7%
Ansonia (0-0) 6%
Lehman Catholic (0-0) 6%
Most likely second round opponents
Marion Local (0-0) 20%
Ansonia (0-0) 16%
Cincinnati Country Day (0-0) 16%
Lehman Catholic (0-0) 9%
New Bremen (0-0) 8%
Weekly summary info
Week 0 (0-0, 48.7, #643, D7 #77), 20% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 47.1