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Rankings
#53 of 100 in Division 2
#15 of 25 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #69 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #43 in D2 (-83 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 31-7 A #522 Tecumseh (1-5) D3 R12, pick: W by 20 (82%), perf. rating 114
08/28 W 49-6 A #492 Sidney (1-5) D2 R8, pick: W by 17 (80%), perf. rating 145
09/04 L 41-14 H #47 Tippecanoe (5-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 27 (7%), perf. rating 113
09/11 W 42-0 H #484 Greenville (1-5) D3 R12, pick: W by 26 (94%), perf. rating 142
09/18 L 31-14 A #116 Troy (5-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 16 (16%), perf. rating 113
09/25 W 39-12 H #545 West Carrollton (0-6) D3 R12, pick: W by 36 (99%), perf. rating 110
10/02 H #358 Piqua (2-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 17 (86%)
10/09 A #222 Xenia (3-3) D2 R8, pick: L by 5 (37%)
10/16 A #402 Stebbins (2-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 21 (92%)
10/23 H #170 Butler (5-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 8 (30%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
10.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R8 playoffs
Playoff chances now
42% (bubble if 7-3), 10% home (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.65 ( 7.25-20.10) 47% in, 12% home, proj. out (#5-out), West (6-0) 17%
Lose: 7.80 ( 4.95-17.00) 8% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), West (6-0) 24%
Based on eventual number of wins
(15%) 8W: 18.35 (18.25-20.10) 100% in, 64% home, proj. #8 (#5-#11), Talawanda (5-1) 25%
(33%) 7W: 14.20 (13.60-17.85) 79% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Troy (5-1) 23%
(38%) 6W: 10.20 (10.10-13.70) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(12%) 5W: 7.80 ( 7.20-10.90) out, proj. out
( 2%) 4W: 5.00 ( 4.95- 6.55) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(15%) WWWW: 18.35 (18.25-20.10) 100% in, 64% home, proj. #8 (#5-#11), Talawanda (5-1) 25%
(13%) WLWW: 14.85 (14.75-16.60) 96% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), West (6-0) 22%
(19%) WWWL: 13.65 (13.60-15.45) 66% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Troy (5-1) 26%
( 2%) LLWW: 11.95 (11.25-13.65) 2% in, proj. out (#10-out), Troy (5-1) 75%
(31%) WLWL: 10.20 (10.10-11.95) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Butler (5-1) 67%
( 5%) WLLL: 7.85 ( 7.25- 9.70) out
( 6%) LLWL: 7.30 ( 7.20- 9.50) out
( 2%) LLLL: 5.00 ( 4.95- 6.55) out
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (4-2, 116.8, #239, D2 #53), 42% (bubble if 7-3), 10% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 5 (3-2, 117.1, #239, D2 #52), 38% (bubble if 7-3), 4% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 4 (3-1, 118.5, #231, D2 #53), 43% (likely needs 7-3), 12% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 112.9, #275, D2 #57), 28% (likely needs 7-3), 6% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 2 (2-0, 111.6, #282, D2 #58), 27% (likely needs 7-3), 9% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 102.8, #346, D2 #69), 19% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 98.5, #377, D2 #72), 16% (likely needs 7-3), 6% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 100.5