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Rankings
#57 of 100 in Division 2
#15 of 25 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #69 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #47 in D2 (-83 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 31-7 A #569 Tecumseh (0-3) D3 R12, pick: W by 20 (82%), perf. rating 105
08/28 W 49-6 A #465 Sidney (1-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 17 (80%), perf. rating 149
09/04 L 41-14 H #63 Tippecanoe (2-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 27 (7%), perf. rating 106
09/11 H #457 Greenville (1-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 26 (94%)
09/18 A #114 Troy (2-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 24 (7%)
09/25 H #583 West Carrollton (0-3) D3 R12, pick: W by 38 (99%)
10/02 H #395 Piqua (1-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 19 (89%)
10/09 A #168 Xenia (0-3) D2 R8, pick: L by 16 (15%)
10/16 A #385 Stebbins (1-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 14 (82%)
10/23 H #124 Butler (3-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 20 (9%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
10.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R8 playoffs
Playoff chances now
28% (likely needs 7-3), 6% home (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 10.20 ( 3.90-25.30) 29% in, 6% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Lima Senior (2-1) 15%
Lose: 6.80 ( 1.75-20.85) 6% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 9W: 23.05 (22.50-25.30) 100% home, 47% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 47%
( 7%) 8W: 18.35 (17.25-22.40) 99% in, 56% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Withrow (2-1) 14%
(20%) 7W: 14.35 (13.15-19.50) 80% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Lima Senior (2-1) 18%
(40%) 6W: 10.20 ( 9.65-16.05) 7% in, proj. out (#9-out), Talawanda (3-0) 19%
(22%) 5W: 7.45 ( 6.75-12.00) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 7%) 4W: 5.50 ( 4.50- 9.60) out, proj. out
( 1%) 3W: 3.85 ( 2.85- 7.50) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWWW: 23.05 (22.50-25.30) 100% home, 47% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 47%
( 5%) WLWWWWW: 18.35 (17.80-20.65) 99% in, 51% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Withrow (2-1) 14%
( 8%) WLWWLWW: 14.85 (14.30-17.20) 90% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Talawanda (3-0) 19%
( 9%) WLWWWWL: 13.65 (13.15-15.90) 69% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Talawanda (3-0) 19%
(35%) WLWWLWL: 10.20 ( 9.65-13.20) 5% in, proj. out (#10-out), Talawanda (3-0) 19%
(13%) WLWWLLL: 7.35 ( 6.80-10.25) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Talawanda (3-0) 100%
( 5%) WLWLLWL: 7.30 ( 6.75- 9.65) out
( 1%) LLWLLLL: 3.35 ( 2.85- 6.25) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 112.9, #275, D2 #57), 28% (likely needs 7-3), 6% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 2 (2-0, 111.6, #282, D2 #58), 27% (likely needs 7-3), 9% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 102.8, #346, D2 #69), 19% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 98.5, #377, D2 #72), 16% (likely needs 7-3), 6% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 100.5