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Rankings
#64 of 104 in Division 2
#15 of 23 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #75 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #36 in D2 (-10 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 41-6 H #542 Tecumseh (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 26 (88%), perf. rating 123
08/29 W 28-0 H #494 Sidney (0-4) D2 R8, pick: L by 4 (42%), perf. rating 120
09/05 L 55-7 A #30 Tippecanoe (4-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 37 (2%), perf. rating 102
09/12 W 42-18 A #486 Greenville (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 20 (88%), perf. rating 119
09/19 H #105 Troy (3-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 25 (6%)
09/26 A #557 West Carrollton (0-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 31 (98%)
10/03 A #261 Piqua (1-3) D2 R8, pick: L by 6 (35%)
10/10 H #122 Xenia (3-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 23 (7%)
10/17 H #290 Stebbins (2-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 2 (55%)
10/24 A #228 Butler (3-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 10 (26%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
8.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R8 playoffs
Playoff chances now
42% (likely needs 6-4), 11% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 16.90 ( 9.20-26.80) 92% in, 55% home, 10% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), Lima Senior (2-2) 14%
Lose: 9.10 ( 4.40-21.65) 39% in, 9% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Lima Senior (2-2) 20%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 8W: 20.40 (20.35-23.40) 100% home, 8% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#8), Aiken (3-1) 20%
(12%) 7W: 16.10 (15.55-19.75) 100% in, 53% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Lima Senior (2-2) 20%
(23%) 6W: 12.10 (11.45-17.00) 92% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Lima Senior (2-2) 24%
(31%) 5W: 8.95 ( 7.95-12.75) 11% in, proj. out (#10-out), Xenia (3-1) 29%
(27%) 4W: 5.65 ( 5.60- 9.60) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 1%) 3W: 5.00 ( 4.40- 6.50) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LWWWWW: 20.40 (20.35-21.65) 100% home, 9% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#7), Aiken (3-1) 21%
( 8%) LWWLWW: 15.60 (15.55-17.55) 100% in, 46% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Lima Senior (2-2) 23%
( 8%) LWLLWW: 12.60 (12.00-14.90) 96% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Lima Senior (2-2) 28%
( 9%) LWWLWL: 11.50 (11.45-13.65) 87% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Lima Senior (2-2) 21%
(19%) LWLLWL: 8.55 ( 8.50-11.25) 10% in, proj. out (#10-out), Xenia (3-1) 28%
( 7%) LWWLLL: 8.55 ( 7.95-10.40) 5% in, proj. out (#11-out), Withrow (4-0) 29%
(26%) LWLLLL: 5.65 ( 5.60- 7.85) out
( 1%) LLLLLL: 5.00 ( 4.40- 6.50) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 110.5, #287, D2 #64), 42% (likely needs 6-4), 11% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (2-1, 107.1, #313, D2 #70), 33% (likely needs 6-4), 9% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (2-0, 113.8, #265, D2 #61), 59% (bubble if 5-5), 26% home (maybe if 7-3), 5% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 98.6, #368, D2 #76), 23% (bubble if 6-4), 8% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye, proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 93.2, #422, D2 #84), 21% (bubble if 6-4), 8% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 94.5