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Rankings
#36 of 72 in Division 1
#9 of 18 in Region 2
Strength of schedule #71 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #28 in D1 (+25 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 28-20 A #56 Middletown (4-0) D1 R2, pick: L by 14 (26%), perf. rating 140
08/29 W 24-14 H #122 Xenia (3-1) D2 R8, pick: W by 5 (60%), perf. rating 150
09/05 W 46-0 A #557 West Carrollton (0-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 42 (99%), perf. rating 135
09/12 W 28-7 H #261 Piqua (1-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 22 (90%), perf. rating 144
09/19 A #287 Fairborn (3-1) D2 R8, pick: W by 25 (94%)
09/26 H #290 Stebbins (2-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 28 (96%)
10/03 A #228 Butler (3-1) D2 R8, pick: W by 20 (90%)
10/10 H #494 Sidney (0-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 42 (99%)
10/17 A #30 Tippecanoe (4-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 23 (7%)
10/24 H #486 Greenville (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 42 (99%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
24.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#1 seed in R2 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in and likely home, 91% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 24.05 (12.45-30.05) 100% in, 99% home, 94% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#11), bye 94%
Lose: 19.40 (11.20-27.05) 99% in, 92% home, 50% bye, proj. #4 (#1-out), bye 50%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 7%) 9W: 29.90 (29.80-30.05) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
(72%) 8W: 24.10 (24.05-28.75) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 99%
(18%) 7W: 19.95 (18.75-24.05) 100% home, 69% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 69%
( 3%) 6W: 15.90 (14.65-20.00) 100% in, 87% home, 10% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Hilliard Bradley (3-1) 12%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 7%) WWWWWW: 29.90 (29.80-30.05) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
(71%) WWWWLW: 24.10 (24.05-25.30) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 99%
( 2%) WLWWLW: 20.00 (19.35-22.25) 100% home, 77% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 77%
( 4%) LWWWLW: 19.95 (18.75-21.80) 100% home, 68% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 68%
(10%) WWLWLW: 19.40 (19.35-21.80) 100% home, 62% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 62%
( 1%) LWLWLW: 15.85 (14.65-18.15) 100% in, 79% home, 8% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Springboro (2-2) 11%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 139.8, #105, D1 #36), likely in and likely home, 91% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #1 at 8-2
Week 3 (2-1, 138.0, #110, D1 #36), likely in, 97% home (maybe if 5-5), 75% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #1 at 8-2
Week 2 (1-1, 134.3, #128, D1 #40), likely in, 93% home (maybe if 5-5), 66% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #1 at 8-2
Week 1 (0-1, 129.1, #156, D1 #47), 91% (bubble if 4-6), 75% home (maybe if 5-5), 43% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #2 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 128.4, #164, D1 #49), 87% (bubble if 4-6), 68% home (maybe if 6-4), 35% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 7-3
Last season 125.5