Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions

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Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

#113 Troy Trojans (6-1) 137.3

Updated Sun 04-Oct-2026 08:06 AM
Week 7 complete

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Rankings
#29 of 100 in Division 2
#7 of 25 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #63 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #25 in D2 (+76 WP+)

Schedule and results
08/21 L 31-14 H #12 Pickerington North (6-1) D1 R3, pick: L by 25 (13%), perf. rating 149
08/28 W 10-6 A #221 Xenia (3-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 127
09/04 W 57-6 H #566 West Carrollton (0-7) D3 R12, pick: W by 49 (99%), perf. rating 128
09/11 W 28-14 A #343 Piqua (2-5) D2 R8, pick: W by 31 (97%), perf. rating 126
09/18 W 31-14 H #262 Fairborn (5-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 16 (84%), perf. rating 137
09/25 W 42-7 A #374 Stebbins (3-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 31 (98%), perf. rating 152
10/02 W 45-31 H #174 Butler (5-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 12 (78%), perf. rating 145
10/09 A #494 Sidney (1-6) D2 R8, pick: W by 39 (99%)
10/16 H #40 Tippecanoe (6-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 17 (13%)
10/23 A #492 Greenville (2-5) D3 R12, pick: W by 38 (99%)

Regular season projections
8-2 record
22.55 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#6 seed in R8 playoffs

Playoff chances now
appears locked in and home, 17% bye (likely needs 9-1)

Depending on the next game
Win: 22.55 (20.30-27.90) 100% home, 17% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#7), Xenia (3-4) 20%
Lose: 20.80 (19.10-26.65) 100% home, 8% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#8), Xenia (3-4) 18%

Based on eventual number of wins
(13%) 9W: 27.80 (27.80-27.90) 100% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(85%) 8W: 22.55 (22.55-26.65) 100% home, 4% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#7), Xenia (3-4) 22%
( 2%) 7W: 20.85 (20.20-21.45) 100% home, 1% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#8), Xenia (3-4) 23%

Under certain win/loss scenarios
(13%) WWW: 27.80 (27.80-27.90) 100% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(85%) WLW: 22.55 (22.55-23.65) 100% home, 4% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#7), Xenia (3-4) 23%
( 1%) LLW: 20.80 (20.20-21.45) 100% home, 1% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#8), Xenia (3-4) 20%

Most likely first round opponents
Xenia (3-4) 20%
Badin (5-2) 17%
Edgewood (Trenton) (4-3) 12%
Withrow (4-3) 9%

Most likely second round opponents
Lima Senior (6-1) 51%
Trotwood-Madison (6-1) 17%
Harrison (6-1) 9%
Anderson (6-1) 4%
West (7-0) 4%

Weekly summary info
Week 7 (6-1, 137.3, #113, D2 #29), appears locked in and home, 17% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 6 (5-1, 136.4, #116, D2 #31), likely in, 87% home (maybe if 7-3), 17% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 5 (4-1, 134.9, #121, D2 #32), likely in, 79% home (likely needs 8-2), 16% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 4 (3-1, 132.7, #130, D2 #37), 94% (bubble if 6-4), 62% home (maybe if 7-3), 17% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 3 (2-1, 135.9, #114, D2 #32), 96% (bubble if 6-4), 71% home (maybe if 7-3), 32% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 2 (1-1, 138.2, #101, D2 #31), 95% (bubble if 6-4), 80% home (maybe if 7-3), 47% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 1 (0-1, 138.1, #106, D2 #33), 83% (bubble if 6-4), 61% home (maybe if 7-3), 31% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 137.4, #106, D2 #31), 76% (bubble if 6-4), 55% home (maybe if 7-3), 27% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Last season 142.1