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Rankings
#32 of 100 in Division 2
#9 of 25 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #61 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #24 in D2 (+104 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 31-14 H #19 Pickerington North (2-1) D1 R3, pick: L by 25 (13%), perf. rating 144
08/28 W 10-6 A #168 Xenia (0-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 135
09/04 W 57-6 H #583 West Carrollton (0-3) D3 R12, pick: W by 49 (99%), perf. rating 124
09/11 A #395 Piqua (1-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 31 (97%)
09/18 H #275 Fairborn (2-1) D2 R8, pick: W by 24 (93%)
09/25 A #385 Stebbins (1-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 30 (97%)
10/02 H #124 Butler (3-0) D2 R8, pick: W by 3 (57%)
10/09 A #465 Sidney (1-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 36 (99%)
10/16 H #63 Tippecanoe (2-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 10 (26%)
10/23 A #457 Greenville (1-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 36 (99%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
22.55 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#4 seed in R8 playoffs
Playoff chances now
96% (bubble if 6-4), 71% home (maybe if 7-3), 32% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 22.50 ( 5.15-28.10) 97% in, 72% home, 33% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 34%
Lose: 14.45 ( 4.05-26.15) 73% in, 32% home, 8% bye, proj. #10 (#2-out), Butler (3-0) 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
(20%) 9W: 27.80 (27.60-28.10) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(39%) 8W: 22.55 (21.80-26.70) 100% in, 99% home, 31% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#10), bye 31%
(30%) 7W: 17.35 (17.20-22.00) 99% in, 37% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Withrow (2-1) 15%
( 9%) 6W: 13.85 (12.60-19.10) 73% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Lima Senior (2-1) 18%
( 2%) 5W: 10.95 ( 9.10-15.55) 22% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(20%) WWWWWWW: 27.80 (27.60-28.10) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 1%) WLWWWWW: 23.20 (22.45-25.00) 100% home, 40% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#8), bye 40%
(31%) WWWWWLW: 22.55 (22.50-24.20) 100% in, 99% home, 35% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#10), bye 35%
( 7%) WWWLWWW: 22.05 (21.80-23.75) 100% in, 98% home, 8% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), Xenia (0-3) 14%
( 2%) WLWWWLW: 17.95 (17.25-19.80) 99% in, 45% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Fairborn (2-1) 14%
(24%) WWWLWLW: 17.30 (17.25-19.15) 99% in, 30% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Withrow (2-1) 16%
( 2%) WWLLWLW: 14.45 (13.20-16.80) 89% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Lima Senior (2-1) 19%
( 4%) WLWLWLW: 13.25 (12.60-15.15) 53% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Lima Senior (2-1) 22%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 135.9, #114, D2 #32), 96% (bubble if 6-4), 71% home (maybe if 7-3), 32% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 2 (1-1, 138.2, #101, D2 #31), 95% (bubble if 6-4), 80% home (maybe if 7-3), 47% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 1 (0-1, 138.1, #106, D2 #33), 83% (bubble if 6-4), 61% home (maybe if 7-3), 31% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 137.4, #106, D2 #31), 76% (bubble if 6-4), 55% home (maybe if 7-3), 27% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Last season 142.1