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Rankings
#72 of 100 in Division 2
#18 of 25 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #59 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #61 in D2 (-334 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 42-13 A #204 Lima Senior (2-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 6 (39%), perf. rating 81
08/28 L 49-0 H #63 Tippecanoe (2-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 30 (7%), perf. rating 83
09/04 W 26-21 A #457 Greenville (1-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 7 (65%), perf. rating 96
09/11 H #114 Troy (2-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 31 (3%)
09/18 H #583 West Carrollton (0-3) D3 R12, pick: W by 29 (97%)
09/25 A #168 Xenia (0-3) D2 R8, pick: L by 28 (4%)
10/02 A #275 Fairborn (2-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 19 (11%)
10/09 H #385 Stebbins (1-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/16 A #124 Butler (3-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/23 H #465 Sidney (1-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 13 (80%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
4.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R8 playoffs
Playoff chances now
3% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 11.00 ( 4.55-23.10) 33% in, 6% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Talawanda (3-0) 17%
Lose: 5.15 ( 1.10-19.00) 2% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Talawanda (3-0) 19%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 6W: 13.90 (12.65-17.35) 71% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Talawanda (3-0) 19%
(12%) 5W: 9.80 ( 9.10-15.05) 4% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(33%) 4W: 6.30 ( 6.20-11.55) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(34%) 3W: 4.00 ( 3.35- 9.25) out, proj. out
(17%) 2W: 2.25 ( 1.65- 7.60) out, proj. out
( 2%) 1W: 1.70 ( 1.10- 3.50) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LWLWWWW: 14.40 (14.30-16.20) 80% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Lima Senior (2-1) 18%
( 7%) LWLWWLW: 9.75 ( 9.65-12.25) 3% in, proj. out (#10-out), Talawanda (3-0) 28%
( 3%) LWLWLLW: 7.40 ( 6.80- 9.35) out
(27%) LWLLWLW: 6.30 ( 6.20- 9.30) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Troy (2-1) 100%
( 7%) LWLLWLL: 4.50 ( 3.90- 7.50) out
(25%) LWLLLLW: 4.00 ( 3.95- 7.00) out
(15%) LWLLLLL: 2.25 ( 1.65- 5.20) out
( 2%) LLLLLLL: 1.70 ( 1.10- 3.50) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 95.6, #395, D2 #72), 3% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (0-2, 94.3, #402, D2 #75), 4% (likely needs 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 101.5, #358, D2 #71), 13% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 113.1, #260, D2 #57), 37% (bubble if 6-4), 20% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 115.2