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Rankings
#59 of 104 in Division 2
#14 of 23 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #72 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #71 in D2 (-355 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 12-7 H #253 Lima Senior (2-2) D2 R8, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 106
08/29 L 40-7 A #30 Tippecanoe (4-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 38 (3%), perf. rating 115
09/05 W 50-7 H #486 Greenville (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 14 (78%), perf. rating 141
09/12 L 28-7 A #105 Troy (3-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 22 (10%), perf. rating 111
09/19 A #557 West Carrollton (0-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 33 (98%)
09/26 H #122 Xenia (3-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 20 (10%)
10/03 H #287 Fairborn (3-1) D2 R8, pick: W by 6 (65%)
10/10 A #290 Stebbins (2-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 3 (58%)
10/17 H #228 Butler (3-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 2 (45%)
10/24 A #494 Sidney (0-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 28 (97%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
11.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#12 seed in R8 playoffs
Playoff chances now
50% (bubble if 5-5), 11% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 10.45 ( 2.25-21.15) 50% in, 11% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#3-out), Lima Senior (2-2) 16%
Lose: 6.30 ( 1.65-18.15) 20% in, 5% home, proj. out (#6-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 7W: 19.35 (19.30-21.15) 100% in, 99% home, 3% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), Butler (3-1) 17%
(25%) 6W: 14.55 (14.50-19.30) 100% in, 22% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), La Salle (3-1) 19%
(28%) 5W: 11.00 (10.40-15.20) 68% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Xenia (3-1) 27%
(25%) 4W: 7.50 ( 6.90-12.15) 2% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(15%) 3W: 4.05 ( 4.00- 9.90) out, proj. out
( 3%) 2W: 2.25 ( 2.25- 5.80) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 5%) WWWWWW: 19.35 (19.30-21.15) 100% in, 99% home, 3% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), Butler (3-1) 17%
(22%) WLWWWW: 14.55 (14.50-16.95) 100% in, 21% home, proj. #9 (#7-#12), La Salle (3-1) 21%
( 8%) WLWLWW: 11.05 (11.00-13.50) 68% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Xenia (3-1) 22%
(13%) WLWWLW: 10.45 (10.40-12.35) 65% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Xenia (3-1) 33%
(12%) WLWLLW: 7.45 ( 6.90- 9.35) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Withrow (4-0) 67%
( 7%) WLLWLW: 6.95 ( 6.90- 8.80) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Xenia (3-1) 100%
(12%) WLLLLW: 4.05 ( 4.00- 5.30) out
( 2%) WLLLLL: 2.25 ( 2.25- 4.05) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 114.7, #261, D2 #59), 50% (bubble if 5-5), 11% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 3 (1-2, 117.3, #239, D2 #54), 56% (bubble if 5-5), 19% home (likely needs 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 5-5
Week 2 (0-2, 107.1, #313, D2 #70), 33% (bubble if 5-5), 10% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 104.6, #326, D2 #72), 28% (bubble if 5-5), 9% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 107.0, #298, D2 #65), 48% (bubble if 5-5), 27% home (maybe if 6-4), 10% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 5-5
Last season 108.8