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Rankings
#52 of 104 in Division 2
#12 of 23 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #78 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #44 in D2 (-125 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 17-0 H #353 Franklin (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 19 (81%), perf. rating 126
08/29 W 27-21 A #290 Stebbins (2-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 16 (79%), perf. rating 121
09/05 L 20-0 H #122 Xenia (3-1) D2 R8, pick: W by 2 (54%), perf. rating 105
09/12 W 31-6 A #494 Sidney (0-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 31 (97%), perf. rating 119
09/19 H #30 Tippecanoe (4-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 33 (2%)
09/26 A #486 Greenville (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 30 (97%)
10/03 H #105 Troy (3-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 20 (10%)
10/10 A #557 West Carrollton (0-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 35 (99%)
10/17 A #261 Piqua (1-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 2 (55%)
10/24 H #287 Fairborn (3-1) D2 R8, pick: W by 10 (74%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
12.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#9 seed in R8 playoffs
Playoff chances now
80% (likely needs 6-4), 27% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 21.45 (13.35-28.00) 100% in, 91% home, 24% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#12), bye 24%
Lose: 13.15 ( 4.70-23.80) 80% in, 25% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#2-out), Lima Senior (2-2) 20%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 8%) 8W: 20.45 (19.15-25.00) 100% in, 99% home, 5% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), Aiken (3-1) 17%
(35%) 7W: 15.70 (14.50-20.80) 100% in, 49% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), Lima Senior (2-2) 19%
(38%) 6W: 12.15 (10.40-17.35) 90% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Lima Senior (2-2) 25%
(17%) 5W: 9.10 ( 7.45-15.50) 16% in, proj. out (#9-out), Xenia (3-1) 29%
( 2%) 4W: 7.05 ( 4.70-11.40) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 7%) LWWWWW: 20.40 (19.30-23.80) 100% in, 99% home, 4% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), Aiken (3-1) 18%
( 3%) LWWWLW: 17.00 (15.75-19.70) 100% in, 63% home, proj. #8 (#5-#11), Piqua (1-3) 18%
( 1%) LWWWWL: 16.40 (14.60-20.40) 100% in, 40% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), Fairborn (3-1) 30%
(30%) LWLWWW: 15.60 (14.50-19.15) 100% in, 47% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), Lima Senior (2-2) 19%
(25%) LWLWLW: 12.20 (10.95-16.10) 92% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Lima Senior (2-2) 26%
(11%) LWLWWL: 11.95 (10.40-14.90) 86% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Lima Senior (2-2) 21%
(15%) LWLWLL: 9.05 ( 7.45-12.00) 12% in, proj. out (#10-out), Xenia (3-1) 31%
( 1%) LLLWLL: 6.45 ( 4.70- 9.15) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 118.3, #228, D2 #52), 80% (likely needs 6-4), 27% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 118.0, #235, D2 #53), 77% (bubble if 5-5), 24% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye, proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 2 (2-0, 124.5, #189, D2 #48), 90% (bubble if 5-5), 61% home (maybe if 7-3), 23% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 126.9, #171, D2 #39), 83% (bubble if 5-5), 60% home (maybe if 7-3), 27% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 125.0, #180, D2 #42), 77% (bubble if 5-5), 59% home (maybe if 7-3), 31% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Last season 124.9