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Rankings
#39 of 100 in Division 2
#10 of 25 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #72 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #27 in D2 (+80 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 41-7 A #430 Franklin (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 6 (61%), perf. rating 143
08/28 W 42-28 H #406 Stebbins (1-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 25 (90%), perf. rating 114
09/04 W 31-16 A #190 Xenia (1-3) D2 R8, pick: L by 3 (43%), perf. rating 148
09/11 W 45-13 H #475 Sidney (1-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 38 (99%), perf. rating 129
09/18 A #61 Tippecanoe (3-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 19 (12%)
09/25 H #477 Greenville (1-3) D3 R12, pick: W by 37 (99%)
10/02 A #130 Troy (3-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 2 (44%)
10/09 H #573 West Carrollton (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 45 (99%)
10/16 H #373 Piqua (1-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 30 (98%)
10/23 A #231 Fairborn (3-1) D2 R8, pick: W by 12 (79%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
18.40 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#9 seed in R8 playoffs
Playoff chances now
94% (bubble if 7-3), 57% home (maybe if 8-2), 14% bye (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 27.75 (14.90-30.60) 99% in, 96% home, 64% bye, proj. #3 (#1-out), bye 64%
Lose: 18.55 ( 8.05-26.35) 93% in, 52% home, 7% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), Kings (3-1) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 7%) 10W: 28.25 (27.65-30.60) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(33%) 9W: 23.10 (22.35-29.95) 100% home, 21% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 21%
(40%) 8W: 18.40 (17.25-24.35) 99% in, 42% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Kings (3-1) 21%
(18%) 7W: 14.30 (13.15-21.40) 74% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Troy (3-1) 19%
( 2%) 6W: 11.50 ( 9.65-17.00) 25% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Lima Senior (3-1) 23%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 7%) WWWWWW: 28.25 (27.65-30.60) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 1%) WWWWWL: 23.70 (22.40-26.50) 100% home, 36% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#7), bye 36%
( 3%) WWLWWW: 23.35 (22.35-25.75) 100% home, 15% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#8), Withrow (2-2) 20%
(29%) LWWWWW: 23.05 (22.50-26.35) 100% home, 21% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 21%
( 7%) LWWWWL: 18.45 (17.25-22.25) 100% in, 52% home, proj. #8 (#5-#12), Fairborn (3-1) 15%
(31%) LWLWWW: 18.40 (17.80-21.65) 100% in, 38% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-#12), Kings (3-1) 23%
(15%) LWLWWL: 14.20 (13.15-17.65) 70% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Troy (3-1) 20%
( 1%) LWLWLL: 11.30 ( 9.65-13.25) 14% in, proj. out (#11-out), Lima Senior (3-1) 31%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 132.4, #136, D2 #39), 94% (bubble if 7-3), 57% home (maybe if 8-2), 14% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #9 at 8-2
Week 3 (3-0, 134.4, #124, D2 #35), 96% (bubble if 6-4), 66% home (maybe if 8-2), 27% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 131.4, #140, D2 #42), 81% (bubble if 6-4), 48% home (maybe if 8-2), 20% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 133.7, #128, D2 #39), 81% (bubble if 6-4), 54% home (maybe if 8-2), 24% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 119.4, #207, D2 #51), 48% (bubble if 6-4), 26% home (maybe if 7-3), 9% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Last season 118.2