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Rankings
#79 of 105 in Division 4
#23 of 28 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #37 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #97 in D4 (-760 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 48-0 H #251 Zane Trace (3-1) D5 R19, pick: W by 17 (78%), perf. rating 51
08/29 L 35-28 A #434 Westfall (3-1) D4 R15, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 82
09/05 L 7-6 A #276 Miami Trace (4-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 32 (4%), perf. rating 112
09/12 L 35-8 H #342 Circleville (4-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 5 (38%), perf. rating 62
09/19 A #324 Fairfield Union (1-3) D4 R15, pick: L by 24 (7%)
09/26 A #490 Liberty Union (3-1) D6 R23, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/03 H #187 Bloom-Carroll (2-2) D3 R11, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/10 H #259 Amanda-Clearcreek (1-3) D5 R19, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/17 A #608 Alexander (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 21 (92%)
10/24 H #197 Hamilton Township (4-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 31 (2%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
4.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.80 ( 1.35-15.30) 2% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Lose: 3.05 ( 0.00-15.65) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 4W: 9.38 ( 6.95-12.00) 5% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(10%) 3W: 6.50 ( 4.25-11.20) out, proj. out
(39%) 2W: 4.35 ( 2.15- 8.30) out, proj. out
(40%) 1W: 2.55 ( 1.20- 5.25) out, proj. out
( 8%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LWLLWW: 8.15 ( 6.60-10.05) out
( 1%) LWWLWL: 7.25 ( 5.80- 8.80) out
( 3%) LWLWWL: 6.45 ( 4.25- 8.55) out
( 4%) WWLLWL: 6.15 ( 4.30- 8.30) out
(35%) LWLLWL: 4.35 ( 2.95- 6.30) out
(37%) LLLLWL: 2.60 ( 1.20- 3.50) out
( 3%) LWLLLL: 1.75 ( 1.75- 2.70) out
( 8%) LLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 82.9, #470, D4 #79), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (0-3, 83.2, #482, D4 #79), 3% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (0-2, 79.6, #503, D4 #84), 7% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 80.1, #514, D4 #86), 16% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 107.0, #299, D4 #45), 67% (bubble if 6-4), 45% home (maybe if 7-3), 21% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 7-3
Last season 101.1