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Rankings
#47 of 106 in Division 5
#7 of 27 in Region 19
Strength of schedule #32 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #66 in D5 (-286 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 46-27 A #311 Zane Trace (7-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 20 (18%), perf. rating 82
08/28 W 54-20 H #580 Westfall (2-6) D5 R19, pick: W by 25 (90%), perf. rating 113
09/04 L 38-7 H #187 Miami Trace (7-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 7 (35%), perf. rating 77
09/11 L 42-0 H #228 Fairfield Union (6-2) D4 R15, pick: L by 25 (7%), perf. rating 54
09/18 W 33-14 H #577 Liberty Union (0-8) D6 R23, pick: W by 15 (83%), perf. rating 91
09/25 L 34-20 A #258 Bloom-Carroll (4-4) D3 R11, pick: L by 29 (3%), perf. rating 96
10/02 L 27-22 A #441 Amanda-Clearcreek (2-6) D5 R19, pick: L by 9 (28%), perf. rating 83
10/09 W 49-13 H #474 Fairland (5-3) D5 R19, pick: L by 11 (23%), perf. rating 136
10/16 A #182 Hamilton Township (6-2) D2 R7, pick: L by 28 (3%)
10/23 A #375 Circleville (5-3) D4 R15, pick: L by 5 (37%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
5.25 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R19 playoffs
Playoff chances now
38% (likely needs 4-6), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 10.30 ( 8.05-13.25) 100% in, 30% home, proj. #10 (#6-#12), Fairland (5-3) 31%
Lose: 5.65 ( 4.35- 9.85) 36% in, proj. out (#9-out), Wheelersburg (5-3) 41%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 5W: 12.15 (11.30-13.25) 100% in, 60% home, proj. #8 (#6-#10), Fairland (5-3) 39%
(38%) 4W: 8.05 ( 7.15-10.30) 93% in, proj. #11 (#9-out), Wheelersburg (5-3) 41%
(61%) 3W: 5.25 ( 4.35- 6.50) 2% in, proj. out (#12-out), South Point (7-1) 65%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WW: 12.15 (11.30-13.25) 100% in, 60% home, proj. #8 (#6-#10), Fairland (5-3) 39%
( 2%) WL: 9.35 ( 8.05-10.30) 100% in, proj. #10 (#9-#12), Meigs (5-3) 47%
(36%) LW: 8.05 ( 7.15- 9.85) 92% in, proj. #11 (#9-out), Wheelersburg (5-3) 42%
(61%) LL: 5.25 ( 4.35- 6.50) 2% in, proj. out (#12-out), South Point (7-1) 65%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (2-5, 84.0, #475, D5 #67), 6% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 6 (2-4, 82.1, #481, D5 #68), 5% (likely needs 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 5 (2-3, 79.2, #498, D5 #74), 3% (likely needs 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 4 (1-3, 77.0, #514, D5 #77), 2% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (1-2, 83.0, #480, D5 #68), 8% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 92.9, #410, D5 #52), 33% (bubble if 5-5), 17% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 88.4, #433, D5 #61), 15% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 90.9, #436, D5 #60), 28% (bubble if 5-5), 15% home (maybe if 6-4), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 88.2