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Rankings
#72 of 106 in Division 5
#16 of 26 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #87 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #48 in D5 (-135 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 13-12 H #518 Shawnee (Springfield) (2-6) D4 R16, pick: W by 12 (71%), perf. rating 77
08/28 W 43-6 H #627 Northwestern (Sprfd.) (0-8) D5 R20, pick: W by 13 (74%), perf. rating 104
09/04 L 62-28 A #239 West Jefferson (7-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 13 (23%), perf. rating 68
09/11 W 41-7 H #619 Triad (2-6) D7 R28, pick: W by 20 (88%), perf. rating 102
09/18 L 47-13 A #360 West Liberty-Salem (5-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 15 (17%), perf. rating 52
09/25 W 20-14 H #598 Southeastern Local (3-5) D7 R28, pick: W by 20 (90%), perf. rating 67
10/02 W 62-30 H #612 Cedarville (2-6) D7 R28, pick: W by 17 (86%), perf. rating 101
10/16 H #465 Greeneview (5-3) D5 R20, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/23 A #324 Madison-Plains (6-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 25 (5%)
Regular season projections
5-4 record
6.82 Harbin points (divisor 87)
out of R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
44% (likely needs 6-3), 6% home (likely needs 7-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.62 ( 9.62-14.49) 99% in, 13% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#3-out), Bishop Fenwick (4-4) 21%
Lose: 6.82 ( 6.82-11.75) 4% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Bishop Fenwick (4-4) 33%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 7W: 13.40 (13.40-14.49) 100% home, 15% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#8), Preble Shawnee (6-2) 23%
(42%) 6W: 9.62 ( 9.62-11.75) 99% in, 7% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Bishop Fenwick (4-4) 23%
(56%) 5W: 6.82 ( 6.82- 8.43) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WW: 13.40 (13.40-14.49) 100% home, 15% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#8), Preble Shawnee (6-2) 23%
( 2%) LW: 10.60 (10.60-11.75) 100% in, 2% home, proj. #10 (#7-#12), Bishop Fenwick (4-4) 33%
(39%) WL: 9.62 ( 9.62-11.23) 99% in, 7% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Bishop Fenwick (4-4) 23%
(56%) LL: 6.82 ( 6.82- 8.43) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Summit Country Day (4-3) 100%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (5-2, 80.3, #503, D5 #76), 45% (likely needs 7-3), 6% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 6 (4-2, 76.7, #519, D5 #78), 25% (likely needs 7-3), 7% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 6-4
Week 5 (3-2, 79.2, #497, D5 #73), 31% (likely needs 7-3), 8% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 4 (3-1, 84.0, #472, D5 #67), 48% (likely needs 7-3), 22% home (likely needs 8-2), 3% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 80.4, #495, D5 #71), 36% (likely needs 7-3), 15% home (likely needs 8-2), 3% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Week 2 (2-0, 88.7, #437, D5 #61), 58% (likely needs 7-3), 35% home (maybe if 8-2), 13% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #11 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 80.0, #494, D5 #73), 43% (bubble if 6-4), 22% home (maybe if 7-3), 6% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 83.4, #483, D5 #69), 35% (bubble if 7-3), 18% home (maybe if 8-2), 6% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Last season 90.3