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Rankings
#38 of 107 in Division 7
#11 of 27 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #41 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #28 in D7 (+50 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 16-12 H #443 Cincinnati College Prep (2-2) D7 R28, pick: L by 12 (28%), perf. rating 91
08/29 W 40-0 A #696 East Clinton (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 38 (97%), perf. rating 80
09/05 L 21-15 H #417 West Liberty-Salem (2-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 8 (33%), perf. rating 82
09/12 L 62-26 A #295 West Jefferson (4-0) D6 R23, pick: L by 22 (10%), perf. rating 58
09/19 H #674 Triad (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 35 (99%)
09/26 A #396 Greeneview (2-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 19 (11%)
10/03 H #456 Greenon (2-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 4 (40%)
10/10 A #583 Madison-Plains (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 12 (79%)
10/17 H #578 Catholic Cent. (Sprfd.) (3-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 15 (84%)
10/24 A #620 Southeastern Local (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 20 (91%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
8.60 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#10 seed in R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
82% (bubble if 4-6), 13% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 8.65 ( 3.10-15.75) 82% in, 13% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#3-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 15%
Lose: 6.90 ( 4.00-12.35) 55% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#8-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 6%) 8W: 13.60 (11.60-15.75) 100% in, 93% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#10), Notre Dame (4-0) 18%
(26%) 7W: 10.85 ( 8.75-13.75) 99% in, 25% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), New Bremen (4-0) 18%
(33%) 6W: 8.60 ( 6.05-12.50) 94% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 18%
(21%) 5W: 7.10 ( 4.10-10.75) 68% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 17%
(10%) 4W: 5.75 ( 3.10- 9.25) 34% in, proj. out (#10-out), Cincinnati College Prep (2-2) 21%
( 3%) 3W: 4.90 ( 3.15- 7.50) 8% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 6%) WWWWWW: 13.60 (11.60-15.75) 100% in, 93% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#10), Notre Dame (4-0) 18%
( 3%) WWLWWW: 11.00 ( 9.15-12.35) 100% in, 26% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), New Bremen (4-0) 20%
(22%) WLWWWW: 10.80 ( 8.75-13.45) 99% in, 23% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), New Bremen (4-0) 18%
(23%) WLLWWW: 8.25 ( 6.05-10.45) 93% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 19%
( 9%) WLLLWW: 7.20 ( 5.25- 9.30) 77% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 18%
( 6%) WLLWLW: 6.05 ( 4.10- 8.55) 42% in, proj. out (#10-out), Lehman Catholic (4-0) 19%
( 4%) WLLLLW: 5.25 ( 3.10- 7.40) 18% in, proj. out (#10-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 19%
( 3%) WLLLLL: 4.90 ( 3.15- 6.35) 7% in, proj. out (#11-out), St Henry (3-1) 22%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 78.8, #506, D7 #38), 82% (bubble if 4-6), 13% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 85.0, #461, D7 #35), 93% (bubble if 4-6), 50% home (maybe if 7-3), 5% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 2 (2-0, 83.6, #477, D7 #35), 89% (bubble if 4-6), 49% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 80.1, #515, D7 #41), 73% (bubble if 5-5), 31% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 74.2, #543, D7 #46), 45% (bubble if 5-5), 20% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #12 at 5-5
Last season 66.6