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Rankings
#51 of 103 in Division 7
#11 of 25 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #33 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #44 in D7 (-87 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 30-0 A #334 Cincinnati College Prep (3-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 20 (18%), perf. rating 62
08/28 W 55-12 H #694 East Clinton (0-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 43 (98%), perf. rating 71
09/04 L 31-0 A #410 West Liberty-Salem (1-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 18 (16%), perf. rating 49
09/11 H #305 West Jefferson (2-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 32 (3%)
09/18 A #587 Triad (2-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 2 (55%)
09/25 H #347 Greeneview (2-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 29 (3%)
10/02 A #495 Greenon (2-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 16 (15%)
10/09 H #406 Madison-Plains (3-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/16 A #683 Catholic Cent. (Sprfd.) (0-3) D7 R28, pick: W by 33 (99%)
10/23 H #560 Southeastern Local (2-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 1 (47%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
2.30 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
36% (bubble if 4-6), 10% home (maybe if 5-5)
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.70 ( 2.80-17.85) 92% in, 55% home, 10% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Cincinnati Country Day (1-2) 13%
Lose: 2.90 ( 0.45-14.80) 34% in, 9% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Cincinnati Country Day (1-2) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 7W: 12.95 (10.75-14.95) 100% home, 43% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#8), bye 43%
( 5%) 6W: 9.90 ( 7.80-13.55) 100% in, 95% home, 6% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Tri-County North (1-2) 14%
(12%) 5W: 6.70 ( 5.35-11.85) 99% in, 35% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Cincinnati Country Day (1-2) 16%
(26%) 4W: 4.20 ( 3.35- 8.70) 64% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Riverside (DeGraff) (2-1) 17%
(31%) 3W: 2.30 ( 1.85- 6.25) 3% in, proj. out (#9-out), Riverside (DeGraff) (2-1) 23%
(23%) 2W: 0.80 ( 0.80- 4.20) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 1%) 1W: 0.45 ( 0.45- 1.75) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LWWWWWW: 13.05 (11.60-14.80) 100% home, 50% bye, proj. #4 (#3-#8), bye 50%
( 3%) LWLWWWW: 9.72 ( 8.65-11.75) 100% in, 95% home, 5% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#10), Upper Scioto Valley (2-1) 15%
( 6%) LWLWLWW: 6.35 ( 5.80- 9.40) 99% in, 27% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Cincinnati Country Day (1-2) 16%
(16%) LWLLLWW: 3.80 ( 3.35- 6.80) 56% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Riverside (DeGraff) (2-1) 19%
(12%) LLLLLWW: 2.70 ( 2.30- 5.35) 3% in, proj. out (#10-out), New Bremen (2-1) 29%
(15%) LWLLLWL: 2.25 ( 1.85- 4.05) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), New Bremen (2-1) 25%
(22%) LLLLLWL: 0.80 ( 0.80- 3.00) out
( 1%) LLLLLLL: 0.45 ( 0.45- 1.75) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 66.8, #573, D7 #51), 36% (bubble if 4-6), 10% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 73.6, #538, D7 #44), 54% (bubble if 4-6), 22% home (maybe if 5-5), 4% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 72.6, #543, D7 #41), 44% (bubble if 4-6), 21% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 79.0, #503, D7 #36), 47% (bubble if 5-5), 25% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 83.9