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Rankings
#53 of 107 in Division 7
#14 of 27 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #50 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #47 in D7 (-45 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 54-0 H #700 Bradford (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 16 (77%), perf. rating 77
08/28 W 35-14 A #658 Troy Christian (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 21 (85%), perf. rating 75
09/05 W 37-7 H #674 Triad (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 24 (91%), perf. rating 78
09/12 L 31-7 A #417 West Liberty-Salem (2-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 27 (5%), perf. rating 59
09/19 H #295 West Jefferson (4-0) D6 R23, pick: L by 33 (2%)
09/26 A #583 Madison-Plains (0-4) D6 R24, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/03 H #620 Southeastern Local (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 11 (76%)
10/10 A #456 Greenon (2-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 20 (9%)
10/17 A #506 Cedarville (2-2) D7 R28, pick: L by 15 (16%)
10/24 H #396 Greeneview (2-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 25 (5%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
2.70 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
6% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.85 ( 3.90-13.95) 52% in, 6% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#4-out), Ansonia (3-1) 26%
Lose: 2.30 ( 1.15-11.70) 6% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 20%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 8W: 10.25 ( 9.70-11.85) 100% in, 18% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Ansonia (3-1) 21%
( 5%) 7W: 7.45 ( 6.80-10.65) 73% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 21%
(16%) 6W: 4.95 ( 4.25- 9.20) 8% in, proj. out (#10-out), Ansonia (3-1) 22%
(30%) 5W: 2.70 ( 2.25- 6.85) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(32%) 4W: 1.90 ( 1.50- 5.20) out, proj. out
(15%) 3W: 1.15 ( 1.15- 2.45) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) LWWWWL: 7.40 ( 6.90- 8.75) 72% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 22%
( 7%) LWWLWL: 4.90 ( 4.40- 6.75) 2% in, proj. out (#12-out), Lehman Catholic (4-0) 29%
( 4%) LWWWLL: 4.80 ( 4.35- 6.15) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 33%
( 4%) LLWLWL: 3.75 ( 3.30- 5.85) out
(20%) LWWLLL: 2.65 ( 2.25- 4.75) out
( 5%) LWLLLL: 1.90 ( 1.55- 4.00) out
(24%) LLWLLL: 1.85 ( 1.50- 3.50) out
(15%) LLLLLL: 1.15 ( 1.15- 2.45) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 66.1, #578, D7 #53), 6% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (3-0, 66.3, #582, D7 #56), 10% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (2-0, 64.8, #586, D7 #56), 14% (likely needs 7-3), 2% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 63.6, #593, D7 #57), 17% (bubble if 7-3), 4% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 50.9, #638, D7 #72), 11% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 48.6