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Rankings
#37 of 104 in Division 2
#10 of 27 in Region 7
Strength of schedule #53 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #45 in D2 (-128 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 42-14 H #198 Grove City (2-2) D1 R3, pick: L by 21 (17%), perf. rating 80
08/29 W 14-0 H #187 Bloom-Carroll (2-2) D3 R11, pick: L by 11 (28%), perf. rating 144
09/05 W 35-14 A #233 Watkins Memorial (1-3) D2 R7, pick: L by 2 (46%), perf. rating 151
09/12 W 37-14 A #269 Lancaster (1-3) D1 R3, pick: W by 11 (74%), perf. rating 149
09/19 H #322 Reynoldsburg (0-4) D1 R3, pick: W by 27 (95%)
09/26 A #130 Groveport Madison (1-3) D1 R3, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/03 A #54 Canal Winchester (4-0) D2 R7, pick: L by 18 (12%)
10/10 H #278 Newark (2-2) D1 R3, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/17 A #25 Pickerington Central (3-1) D1 R3, pick: L by 28 (3%)
10/24 H #488 Logan (0-4) D2 R7, pick: W by 39 (99%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
15.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#11 seed in R7 playoffs
Playoff chances now
80% (bubble if 6-4), 33% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 16.65 ( 9.05-31.70) 82% in, 35% home, 9% bye, proj. #10 (#1-out), bye 11%
Lose: 13.10 ( 7.65-28.80) 38% in, 8% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#1-out), Louisville (4-0) 11%
Based on eventual number of wins
(11%) 8W: 23.90 (21.15-28.80) 100% home, 63% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 63%
(35%) 7W: 18.65 (14.95-26.40) 99% in, 57% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), Walnut Ridge (1-3) 12%
(43%) 6W: 15.10 (11.95-20.55) 73% in, 4% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#4-out), Northland (2-2) 12%
( 9%) 5W: 12.35 ( 9.05-19.15) 17% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), DeSales (Columbus) (3-1) 16%
( 1%) 4W: 10.35 ( 7.65-14.65) 3% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 9%) WWWWLW: 23.90 (21.60-26.75) 100% home, 67% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 67%
( 2%) WWLWWW: 23.85 (21.15-26.60) 100% home, 38% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#7), bye 38%
( 5%) WLWWLW: 20.50 (17.75-22.85) 100% in, 91% home, 7% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#11), Walnut Ridge (1-3) 13%
(28%) WWLWLW: 18.25 (14.95-21.55) 99% in, 49% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Walnut Ridge (1-3) 12%
(40%) WLLWLW: 15.05 (12.20-18.40) 73% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Northland (2-2) 12%
( 2%) WWLLLW: 15.03 (11.95-17.50) 64% in, 5% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Northland (2-2) 14%
( 3%) LLLWLW: 13.00 (10.20-15.80) 26% in, proj. out (#9-out), Louisville (4-0) 21%
( 5%) WLLLLW: 11.80 ( 9.05-14.85) 7% in, proj. out (#10-out), DeSales (Columbus) (3-1) 23%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 134.3, #135, D2 #37), 80% (bubble if 6-4), 33% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 129.9, #158, D2 #40), 75% (bubble if 5-5), 34% home (maybe if 7-3), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 123.0, #199, D2 #52), 49% (bubble if 5-5), 25% home (maybe if 6-4), 8% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 114.1, #262, D2 #58), 28% (bubble if 5-5), 14% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 119.2, #216, D2 #50), 41% (bubble if 4-6), 25% home (maybe if 6-4), 13% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 4-6
Last season 124.4