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Rankings
#58 of 72 in Division 1
#14 of 18 in Region 3
Strength of schedule #64 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #66 in D1 (-592 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 21-20 A #162 Hilliard Darby (2-2) D1 R2, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 133
08/29 L 41-40 H #258 Dublin Scioto (3-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 10 (69%), perf. rating 111
09/05 L 30-21 H #230 Marysville (2-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 3 (56%), perf. rating 102
09/12 L 37-14 H #135 Teays Valley (3-1) D2 R7, pick: L by 11 (26%), perf. rating 98
09/19 A #130 Groveport Madison (1-3) D1 R3, pick: L by 23 (8%)
09/26 A #25 Pickerington Central (3-1) D1 R3, pick: L by 39 (1%)
10/03 H #488 Logan (0-4) D2 R7, pick: W by 29 (97%)
10/10 A #322 Reynoldsburg (0-4) D1 R3, pick: W by 5 (63%)
10/17 A #54 Canal Winchester (4-0) D2 R7, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/24 H #278 Newark (2-2) D1 R3, pick: W by 3 (57%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
6.30 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R3 playoffs
Playoff chances now
30% (bubble if 4-6), 2% home
Depending on the next game
Win: 11.20 ( 4.45-23.30) 81% in, 13% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 18%
Lose: 6.85 ( 1.90-20.10) 25% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Olentangy (3-1) 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 7%) 5W: 11.95 ( 9.35-16.95) 98% in, 17% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 19%
(37%) 4W: 8.75 ( 6.80-15.15) 52% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Olentangy (3-1) 18%
(34%) 3W: 6.30 ( 3.75-11.45) 9% in, proj. out (#9-out), Pickerington North (3-1) 21%
(21%) 2W: 4.45 ( 2.50-10.15) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 1%) 1W: 3.85 ( 1.90- 5.80) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LLWWWW: 13.75 (11.20-16.95) 100% in, 29% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 19%
( 5%) WLWWLW: 11.35 ( 9.35-14.45) 97% in, 11% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 19%
(34%) LLWWLW: 8.75 ( 6.80-11.90) 51% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Olentangy (3-1) 18%
( 1%) WLWWLL: 8.25 ( 6.90-10.85) 53% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Gahanna Lincoln (2-2) 24%
(15%) LLWLLW: 6.85 ( 4.90-10.05) 15% in, proj. out (#9-out), Pickerington North (3-1) 24%
(18%) LLWWLL: 5.70 ( 3.75- 8.85) 2% in, proj. out (#10-out), Upper Arlington (4-0) 22%
(20%) LLWLLL: 4.45 ( 2.50- 7.05) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Upper Arlington (4-0) 50%
( 1%) LLLLLL: 3.85 ( 1.90- 5.80) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 113.0, #269, D1 #58), 30% (bubble if 4-6), 2% home, proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (1-2, 117.4, #237, D1 #57), 64% (bubble if 3-7), 13% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. #12 at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 121.4, #212, D1 #53), 78% (bubble if 3-7), 28% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye, proj. #11 at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 121.2, #199, D1 #54), 73% (bubble if 4-6), 30% home (maybe if 7-3), 5% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 120.5, #208, D1 #58), 53% (bubble if 5-5), 25% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 120.2