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Rankings
#70 of 79 in Division 1
#18 of 20 in Region 3
Strength of schedule #76 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #63 in D1 (-370 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 16-12 H #423 Licking Heights (1-6) D1 R3, pick: W by 26 (88%), perf. rating 96
08/28 W 34-14 A #295 Mount Vernon (2-5) D2 R7, pick: W by 7 (64%), perf. rating 142
09/04 L 32-14 H #308 Zanesville (4-3) D3 R11, pick: W by 30 (95%), perf. rating 80
09/11 L 35-14 A #160 Groveport Madison (5-2) D1 R3, pick: L by 22 (10%), perf. rating 99
09/18 W 59-33 H #499 Logan (1-6) D2 R7, pick: W by 26 (95%), perf. rating 117
09/25 L 44-14 A #83 Canal Winchester (4-3) D2 R7, pick: L by 29 (3%), perf. rating 99
10/02 L 44-19 A #65 Pickerington Central (4-3) D1 R3, pick: L by 32 (2%), perf. rating 110
10/09 H #186 Teays Valley (1-6) D2 R7, pick: L by 15 (16%)
10/16 A #108 Reynoldsburg (4-3) D1 R3, pick: L by 28 (3%)
10/23 H #271 Lancaster (2-5) D1 R3, pick: L by 3 (42%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
6.80 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R3 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.95 ( 6.05-13.55) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Lose: 5.50 ( 4.30-11.85) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
(10%) 5W: 8.55 ( 7.90-11.85) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(40%) 4W: 6.80 ( 6.05- 9.95) out, proj. out
(49%) 3W: 4.95 ( 4.30- 6.75) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LWW: 10.60 ( 9.95-11.85) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Olentangy Berlin (5-2) 100%
( 1%) LWL: 8.70 ( 7.45- 9.95) out
( 8%) WLW: 8.55 ( 7.90-10.90) out
(32%) LLW: 6.80 ( 6.15- 8.60) out
( 6%) WLL: 6.70 ( 6.05- 8.40) out
(49%) LLL: 4.95 ( 4.30- 6.75) out
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (3-4, 107.8, #311, D1 #70), 1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance), proj. out at 4-6
Week 6 (3-3, 107.5, #311, D1 #70), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 5 (3-2, 107.5, #308, D1 #70), 2% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 4 (2-2, 104.9, #329, D1 #72), 2% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (2-1, 107.0, #313, D1 #71), 8% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (2-0, 122.3, #202, D1 #60), 48% (bubble if 6-4), 17% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 116.6, #236, D1 #62), 40% (bubble if 6-4), 12% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 123.9, #184, D1 #55), 55% (bubble if 6-4), 22% home (maybe if 8-2), 4% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #12 at 6-4
Last season 123.0