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Rankings
#72 of 104 in Division 2
#20 of 27 in Region 7
Strength of schedule #51 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #87 in D2 (-535 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 21-14 A #297 Mount Vernon (2-2) D2 R7, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 122
08/29 L 42-7 A #74 Ashland (4-0) D2 R7, pick: L by 33 (5%), perf. rating 95
09/05 L 20-14 H #253 Lima Senior (2-2) D2 R8, pick: L by 4 (41%), perf. rating 104
09/12 L 12-6 A #392 Highland (Marengo) (2-2) D4 R15, pick: W by 9 (70%), perf. rating 90
09/19 H #375 River Valley (Caled.) (2-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 5 (62%)
09/26 A #152 Clear Fork (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 28 (4%)
10/03 H #140 Ontario (2-2) D3 R10, pick: L by 26 (5%)
10/10 A #398 Pleasant (1-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 5 (63%)
10/17 H #52 Galion (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 35 (1%)
10/24 H #28 Shelby (4-0) D4 R14, pick: L by 41 (1%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
4.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R7 playoffs
Playoff chances now
unlikely to contend for playoffs
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.70 ( 3.10-19.90) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out)
Lose: 3.80 ( 1.75-14.10) out, proj. out
Based on eventual number of wins
( 7%) 4W: 9.35 ( 6.60-14.10) out, proj. out
(39%) 3W: 6.15 ( 4.00-11.60) out, proj. out
(34%) 2W: 4.75 ( 2.65- 9.15) out, proj. out
(20%) 1W: 2.90 ( 1.75- 5.10) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWLWLL: 9.60 ( 7.55-11.35) out
( 3%) WLWWLL: 9.20 ( 6.60-11.45) out
(36%) WLLWLL: 5.75 ( 4.00- 8.85) out
(17%) WLLLLL: 4.75 ( 3.10- 7.45) out
(15%) LLLWLL: 4.30 ( 2.65- 6.50) out
(20%) LLLLLL: 2.90 ( 1.75- 5.10) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 102.2, #355, D2 #72), unlikely to contend for playoffs, proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (1-2, 106.8, #319, D2 #72), 4% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 108.1, #306, D2 #66), 25% (bubble if 5-5), 9% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 100.4, #357, D2 #74), 23% (bubble if 5-5), 9% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye, proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 96.9, #387, D2 #80), 21% (bubble if 5-5), 10% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 2-8
Last season 97.3